Harris aimed to leverage abortion for another post-Dobbs Democratic win. It was unsuccessful.

The situation did not deter Donald Trump, who on Tuesday successfully bridged a significant gender gap and countered Democrats' persistent emphasis on women's reproductive health to reclaim the presidency.

Harris aimed to leverage abortion for another post-Dobbs Democratic win. It was unsuccessful.
Abortion has been a persistent concern for Republicans since the repeal of Roe v. Wade.

Yet, this issue did not hinder former President Donald Trump, who on Tuesday bridged a significant gender gap and countered Democrats’ ongoing emphasis on women’s reproductive health to reclaim the presidency.

Through messaging that proved more effective than other areas of his campaign, Trump and his supporters framed themselves as moderates on abortion. They contended that the matter should be decided at the state level, promised to veto any national abortion ban that reached his desk, advocated for government support of in-vitro fertilization and other reproductive health services, and claimed they would champion women’s rights. This strategy helped Trump secure a decisive victory against Vice President Kamala Harris as voters expressed their frustration over economic issues, inflation, and immigration, seeking to penalize the party currently in power.

Vice President-elect JD Vance, who couched his earlier commitment to federal abortion restrictions, also sought to mitigate the backlash from Roe's repeal by assuring the preservation of federal access to abortion pills and the enhancement of social programs for new parents. Trump's allies even referenced the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in a nearly $20 million advertising campaign just ahead of the election, asserting that Republicans aligned with her abortion views. However, more than anything, Republicans largely sidestepped the issue and pivoted to more favorable topics such as the economy, crime, immigration, and transgender rights.

“Donald Trump has been very, very clear in saying this is a states' rights issue and we're not going to get involved at the federal level,” Pete Hoekstra, the chair of the Michigan GOP told PMG in September. “The bottom line is that if we're debating the abortion issue, we're debating the issue that the Democrats want to talk about, and if we're debating on the economy, if we're debating on the border, jobs, and those types of things, we believe we're debating on the issues that are most important to voters today.”

Democrats had anticipated that abortion would remain a significant motivator as it had been in various races throughout the country since the Dobbs decision. However, issues like the economy emerged as more pressing for many voters.

According to CNN’s national exit poll, abortion was the most critical issue for only 14 percent of voters, trailing democracy at 34 percent and the economy at 31 percent. This exit poll also highlighted the political pragmatism behind the GOP's portrayal of moderation on abortion: 28 percent of voters who believe abortion should be legal cast their ballots for Trump.

“The post-Dobbs Dem overperformance was non-existent. Or at least was swamped by other factors favoring Trump,” remarked Tom Bonier, a senior adviser to the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, on X. “Clearly Trump was not viewed as a threat to abortion rights by enough voters, which is mind-boggling.”

With Congress's control at stake, the possibility of a national abortion ban looms — although Trump ran on a platform promising to veto such legislation. Nonetheless, there are numerous ways his administration, along with the judges he appoints, can restrict access to the procedure without legislative action.

Conservative allies of the president-elect at the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and other organizations have urged him to reinstate pre-pandemic restrictions on the online prescription and mail delivery of abortion pills or revoke their FDA approval—a scenario that could be facilitated through ongoing legal challenges surrounding the pills. These actions could obstruct nationwide access to medications that contribute to over two-thirds of U.S. abortions, even in states that protect the procedure.

Abortion opponents have also advocated for enforcement of the Comstock Act, an 1873 law that prohibits the mailing of “lewd” items, including drugs or instruments used for abortions. Trump indicated in August that he had no intention of enforcing the Comstock Act.

However, he is expected to reinstate many of the anti-abortion policies from his previous administration, including limitations on the Title X family planning program and global HIV initiatives.

“Now the work begins to dismantle the pro-abortion policies of the Biden-Harris administration,” stated Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, on Wednesday. “President Trump’s first-term pro-life accomplishments are the baseline for his second term.”

Most anti-abortion organizations continued to support Trump throughout his campaign, despite his repeated divergence from their positions on federal abortion restrictions, exceptions for rape and incest, and other policies, as well as his embrace of individuals with mixed-to-liberal abortion records. SBA Pro-Life America invested tens of millions into supporting Trump and down-ballot Republicans, despite previously suggesting that his refusal to endorse a national ban could disqualify him.

Nevertheless, some within the movement worry that Trump’s triumph will encourage other Republicans to adopt a more moderate stance on abortion.

“They'll certainly be opportunistic GOP consultants who will try to seize on that and say, ‘See, we need to drop the abortion talk,’” said Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life of America. “The party needs to see this is not the way of the future.”

Yet Hawkins and her supporters argue that Trump’s victory would justify these setbacks if he appoints strict anti-abortion officials to essential positions at HHS, FDA, and the Justice Department, who can be relied upon to enforce their agenda.

Throughout her campaign, Harris highlighted stories of women who faced severe health complications — and even death — after being denied abortions, consistently reminding voters that the turmoil stemmed from “Trump abortion bans,” a term she used for the state laws enacted after Roe’s fall.

In the election’s closing weeks — as polls indicated a close race — Harris organized abortion-focused rallies in Atlanta and Houston, enlisted former First Lady Michelle Obama in Michigan, and appeared on the popular “Call Her Daddy” podcast to emphasize the consequences of GOP policies and warn of potential national restrictions should Trump regain power.

These efforts fell short.

Michigan Democrats cautioned in the campaign's final stretch that they were having difficulty convincing voters that abortion rights remained at risk after the state enacted a ballot initiative safeguarding access to the procedure in 2022. In other battleground states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, where abortion restrictions persist, Democrats’ messaging was overshadowed.

Although Arizona's election results are pending, Democratic strategists in the state are attributing their anticipated loss, in part, to the actions of the Republican-controlled legislature. Earlier this year, it repealed a near-total abortion ban dating back to the Civil War and maintained a law banning the procedure after 15 weeks, complicating efforts for Democrats to assert that abortion access was under threat.

“I'm more concerned with economic problems than stuff that's already in the state rights,” stated Yusuf Isaak, a 19-year-old community college student in Mesa, outside a polling location on Tuesday afternoon. “I feel like economic problems are more pressing because they actually affect everyone's day-to-day life.”

Edna Meza Aguirre, a Planned Parenthood of Arizona board member from Tucson, noted that despite extensive efforts by her and other volunteers to draw attention to abortion rights, many in her community chose to support Republicans due to immigration issues.

“They're listening to what conservatives are saying about individuals crossing the border, taking our jobs, and raping our women, and also complaining that they're a burden upon society,” she explained. “It's a really effective way they've determined to have hate be an issue.” She added that many potential voters were discouraged and decided not to participate in the election. “We hear people say that they're too discouraged to vote, or we hear them say that voting doesn't matter when it does.”

Democrats’ strategy focused on abortion rights also faltered in New Hampshire, a state the party had expected to flip a governorship in this election. Democratic nominee Joyce Craig, the former mayor of Manchester, focused her campaign on expanding abortion access and targeting her Republican opponent, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Yet Ayotte countered in advertisements, pledging to uphold New Hampshire’s law allowing abortions up to 24 weeks and to safeguard access to in-vitro fertilization.

Even though Democrats believed that abortion ballot initiatives in Arizona and other swing states would drive progressive turnout and provide a competitive advantage, these measures had limited impact, even when successful. They may have even assisted Republicans by providing voters with an outlet for their concerns on the issue. In several states, including Arizona, Florida, Missouri, and Montana, a considerable number of voters supported both abortion rights initiatives and Republican candidates known for opposing abortion, including Trump.

Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.

Jessica Kline for TROIB News