Carney's vow to challenge Trump on trade will be postponed
The Trump administration's initial focus will be on engaging in negotiations with numerous trading partners regarding its reciprocal tariffs.
TroibNews 
Fresh from his election win, Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to addressing trade issues with U.S. President Donald Trump promptly. However, the White House may not focus on North American trade discussions until later this summer—a timeline that might actually benefit Canada.
Experts in Canadian trade and politics note that the Trump administration is already under increasing domestic political pressure regarding its tariffs, and the economic ramifications are expected to worsen. Meanwhile, Carney's administration needs time to unite domestic coalitions following a challenging election and to clarify its objectives before entering negotiations with the U.S.
The preference for a cautious approach was shared by six interviewees from across the Canadian political landscape, as well as veteran diplomats, business experts, and trade specialists familiar with Trump’s first term. They highlight that despite Carney’s mandate to confront Trump’s ongoing trade threats, Canada has a trade deficit with the U.S. and is significantly smaller in economic scale.
“U.S. businesses are definitely worried by this, responding to this, making their voice heard in D.C.,” stated Laura Dawson, a former senior executive in the high-tech sector who currently leads the Future Borders Coalition, which includes Canadian and American academics and businesses.
“Canada just needs to keep its powder dry,” Dawson advised. “Make a plan of what it wants out of these negotiations, both defensive and offensive.”
Conversely, officials in the Trump administration communicate confidence that Canada lacks the necessary economic leverage to dictate the pace of negotiations.
At a recent Cabinet meeting, Trump informed reporters that Carney would visit the White House “within the next week or less,” and expressed that the prime minister seeks a deal. Trump congratulated Carney on Tuesday over the phone but offered no updates on the status of the trade discussions later that afternoon.
Currently, the Trump administration is focused on negotiations with Asian countries and other nations it has threatened with steep reciprocal tariffs set for early July. Canada and Mexico were exempted from these tariffs, initially slated to begin in early April but postponed for 90 days.
Two individuals close to the White House indicated that talks aimed at permanently eliminating the possibility of 25 percent tariffs on Canada—which Trump recently rolled back—along with other specific tariffs, are likely to be integrated into the impending review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Although this review is scheduled for 2026, the Trump administration aims to expedite it to this calendar year.
“It makes sense to separate out Canada and Mexico from the rest because they are going to want to redo the USMCA,” noted one individual close to the White House, who spoke anonymously to discuss ongoing deliberations. “They’re going to have separate tariffs that focus specifically on Mexico and Canada, and they’re going to take some actions to squeeze them a little bit.”
Some diplomats warn that U.S. attempts to impose restrictions on China via Canada and Mexico might complicate these negotiations.
"For Canada, the parts that deal with China [are] going to be tightened even more. It’s going to be reinforced,” remarked a third individual familiar with the negotiations, referencing the provisions in the USMCA related to China.
To effectively participate in these discussions, Canada first needs to establish its own political cohesion, as emphasized by interviewees for this report.
The electoral outcome has nearly established Canada as a two-party country like the U.S., sidelining third and fourth parties, the NDP and Bloc Quebecois. Concerns about western separatism have resurfaced, with traditional frustration from Alberta over the prospect of a fourth consecutive Liberal government.
Before Carney can engage seriously with Trump, he must foster unity and alleviate tensions across all provinces, notably in the energy-rich Prairies.
Erin O’Toole, distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Conservative leader, underscored that Carney should prioritize “national unity” to present a united front against the U.S. government.
“The vast majority of people in Alberta and Saskatchewan — and when I say vast, I mean 90 percent — will respect the decision, and will want our prime minister to do well [with] the United States,” O’Toole stated.
O’Toole encouraged the new Canadian government to position energy at the forefront of negotiations with the Trump administration, leveraging not just Alberta's fossil fuel resources but also Saskatchewan’s potash and uranium, along with Canada’s extensive critical mineral assets.
“I would want to get the premiers and the provinces to align, to do this sort of porcupine effect of working together and making it difficult [for the U.S.] to deal with Canada,” O’Toole explained.
This could involve imposing tariffs on future electricity exports to the U.S., a threat Ontario Premier Doug Ford had entertained earlier this year.
“Ford started speculating about it early on; that was not the appropriate time,” O’Toole remarked. “If Mr. Trump's just going to push his 51st state agenda … that has to be something that we have to resolve to bring into the conversation.”
Jason Kenney, the former Alberta premier and ex-Conservative federal defense and immigration minister, concurred that Canada should leverage its energy resources at the outset of discussions with the U.S., though he included an important caveat: “It has to start with a reaffirmation that we are allies and not adversaries; that neither of us constitutes a security threat to the sovereignty of the other partner.”
Following this, Canadian negotiators will need to find a way to provide Trump with a tangible victory, possibly by reviving the Keystone XL pipeline to transport Alberta oil to the Gulf Coast. Kenney noted that the Canadian segment of the pipeline, connecting Alberta to Montana, is already complete.
Despite Trump’s assertions about not requiring Canadian oil, Kenney mentioned that the president has expressed interest in advancing Keystone XL.
“He’s given us a tell,” Kenney stated. “That's one way he [Trump] could come away with the win, and we could come away with selling them an additional 800,000 barrels a day.”
Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief negotiator for the USMCA, indicated that the next round of discussions would address a wider range of security concerns, particularly regarding energy security.
“This is where Canada also has a lot of leverage that it can bring to the table,” Verheul commented during a recent panel discussion at a Canadian think tank symposium.
“The U.S. will eventually figure out that isolation is not the best route for it to go down. It will start looking for allies again, and North America is its safest zone to do that.”
Looking ahead, Canada must remember that any agreement they reach with Trump may not hold up in the long term.
Canada should strive for a deal that will ultimately receive “the seal of approval” from Congress, stated Louise Blais, a former Canadian deputy U.N. ambassador and adviser to the Business Council of Canada, which represents chief executives of major companies.
“One of the issues that we're facing now is, even if you do strike a deal with this White House, there is no guarantee that it will be upheld.”
Mathilde Moreau for TROIB News
Experts in Canadian trade and politics note that the Trump administration is already under increasing domestic political pressure regarding its tariffs, and the economic ramifications are expected to worsen. Meanwhile, Carney's administration needs time to unite domestic coalitions following a challenging election and to clarify its objectives before entering negotiations with the U.S.
The preference for a cautious approach was shared by six interviewees from across the Canadian political landscape, as well as veteran diplomats, business experts, and trade specialists familiar with Trump’s first term. They highlight that despite Carney’s mandate to confront Trump’s ongoing trade threats, Canada has a trade deficit with the U.S. and is significantly smaller in economic scale.
“U.S. businesses are definitely worried by this, responding to this, making their voice heard in D.C.,” stated Laura Dawson, a former senior executive in the high-tech sector who currently leads the Future Borders Coalition, which includes Canadian and American academics and businesses.
“Canada just needs to keep its powder dry,” Dawson advised. “Make a plan of what it wants out of these negotiations, both defensive and offensive.”
Conversely, officials in the Trump administration communicate confidence that Canada lacks the necessary economic leverage to dictate the pace of negotiations.
At a recent Cabinet meeting, Trump informed reporters that Carney would visit the White House “within the next week or less,” and expressed that the prime minister seeks a deal. Trump congratulated Carney on Tuesday over the phone but offered no updates on the status of the trade discussions later that afternoon.
Currently, the Trump administration is focused on negotiations with Asian countries and other nations it has threatened with steep reciprocal tariffs set for early July. Canada and Mexico were exempted from these tariffs, initially slated to begin in early April but postponed for 90 days.
Two individuals close to the White House indicated that talks aimed at permanently eliminating the possibility of 25 percent tariffs on Canada—which Trump recently rolled back—along with other specific tariffs, are likely to be integrated into the impending review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Although this review is scheduled for 2026, the Trump administration aims to expedite it to this calendar year.
“It makes sense to separate out Canada and Mexico from the rest because they are going to want to redo the USMCA,” noted one individual close to the White House, who spoke anonymously to discuss ongoing deliberations. “They’re going to have separate tariffs that focus specifically on Mexico and Canada, and they’re going to take some actions to squeeze them a little bit.”
Some diplomats warn that U.S. attempts to impose restrictions on China via Canada and Mexico might complicate these negotiations.
"For Canada, the parts that deal with China [are] going to be tightened even more. It’s going to be reinforced,” remarked a third individual familiar with the negotiations, referencing the provisions in the USMCA related to China.
To effectively participate in these discussions, Canada first needs to establish its own political cohesion, as emphasized by interviewees for this report.
The electoral outcome has nearly established Canada as a two-party country like the U.S., sidelining third and fourth parties, the NDP and Bloc Quebecois. Concerns about western separatism have resurfaced, with traditional frustration from Alberta over the prospect of a fourth consecutive Liberal government.
Before Carney can engage seriously with Trump, he must foster unity and alleviate tensions across all provinces, notably in the energy-rich Prairies.
Erin O’Toole, distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Conservative leader, underscored that Carney should prioritize “national unity” to present a united front against the U.S. government.
“The vast majority of people in Alberta and Saskatchewan — and when I say vast, I mean 90 percent — will respect the decision, and will want our prime minister to do well [with] the United States,” O’Toole stated.
O’Toole encouraged the new Canadian government to position energy at the forefront of negotiations with the Trump administration, leveraging not just Alberta's fossil fuel resources but also Saskatchewan’s potash and uranium, along with Canada’s extensive critical mineral assets.
“I would want to get the premiers and the provinces to align, to do this sort of porcupine effect of working together and making it difficult [for the U.S.] to deal with Canada,” O’Toole explained.
This could involve imposing tariffs on future electricity exports to the U.S., a threat Ontario Premier Doug Ford had entertained earlier this year.
“Ford started speculating about it early on; that was not the appropriate time,” O’Toole remarked. “If Mr. Trump's just going to push his 51st state agenda … that has to be something that we have to resolve to bring into the conversation.”
Jason Kenney, the former Alberta premier and ex-Conservative federal defense and immigration minister, concurred that Canada should leverage its energy resources at the outset of discussions with the U.S., though he included an important caveat: “It has to start with a reaffirmation that we are allies and not adversaries; that neither of us constitutes a security threat to the sovereignty of the other partner.”
Following this, Canadian negotiators will need to find a way to provide Trump with a tangible victory, possibly by reviving the Keystone XL pipeline to transport Alberta oil to the Gulf Coast. Kenney noted that the Canadian segment of the pipeline, connecting Alberta to Montana, is already complete.
Despite Trump’s assertions about not requiring Canadian oil, Kenney mentioned that the president has expressed interest in advancing Keystone XL.
“He’s given us a tell,” Kenney stated. “That's one way he [Trump] could come away with the win, and we could come away with selling them an additional 800,000 barrels a day.”
Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief negotiator for the USMCA, indicated that the next round of discussions would address a wider range of security concerns, particularly regarding energy security.
“This is where Canada also has a lot of leverage that it can bring to the table,” Verheul commented during a recent panel discussion at a Canadian think tank symposium.
“The U.S. will eventually figure out that isolation is not the best route for it to go down. It will start looking for allies again, and North America is its safest zone to do that.”
Looking ahead, Canada must remember that any agreement they reach with Trump may not hold up in the long term.
Canada should strive for a deal that will ultimately receive “the seal of approval” from Congress, stated Louise Blais, a former Canadian deputy U.N. ambassador and adviser to the Business Council of Canada, which represents chief executives of major companies.
“One of the issues that we're facing now is, even if you do strike a deal with this White House, there is no guarantee that it will be upheld.”
Mathilde Moreau for TROIB News
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