Trudeau Faces Crucial Opportunity with the Arrival of 'Trump 2.0'

Canada's prime minister is currently facing a decline in poll numbers but is optimistic about a potential resurgence, particularly if he can demonstrate his capabilities in a matchup against the President-elect.

Trudeau Faces Crucial Opportunity with the Arrival of 'Trump 2.0'
OTTAWA, Canada — Donald Trump’s surprise announcement regarding tariffs offers Justin Trudeau an opportunity to position himself as the most capable leader in Canada to confront the President-elect, while simultaneously providing his political opponents with material to challenge his campaign.

During Trump’s previous term in office, Trudeau and his administration successfully renegotiated NAFTA and generally navigated relations with the White House. Trudeau’s ability to reach Trump by phone shortly after his Truth Social post illustrates his approach to handling the situation.

“This is something that we can do. Laying out the facts, moving forward in constructive ways,” Trudeau remarked following his call with Trump on Monday evening. “This is a relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on and that's what we'll do.”

With Trump now back in power, Trudeau faces a pivotal moment. He trails in the polls but aims for a resurgence, hoping that a strong response to Trump's tariff proposal will demonstrate his capability and merit for a fourth term. In November, Trudeau's senior ministers engaged with labor leaders, provincial premiers, and business representatives — particularly in the oil sector — to address concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs. The day after the election, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland assured Canadians that they “will be absolutely fine.”

However, Trump’s November 25 Truth Social post served as an alarming signal. The President-elect pledged to impose a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods entering the United States on his first day in office, part of his campaign commitment to combat illegal immigration and the influx of fentanyl.

This promise caused a brief drop in the value of Canada’s dollar, reaching its lowest level in years, with some economists warning that the tariffs could lead the nation into recession.

The threat has also drawn attention from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is positioned as a likely contender for Canada’s next prime minister according to polls.

At a press conference and during an emergency debate on the “unjustified threat,” Poilievre declared his readiness to take action.

“When I am prime minister, we will have a head of government who puts Canada's workers and Canada's security first,” Poilievre stated Tuesday night in the House of Commons.

“That includes maintaining the most successful trade relationship the world has ever seen."

The Liberal government is treating Trump’s threat as a negotiation strategy, yet it must also convince the President-elect that efforts are underway to bolster Canada’s borders against drugs, crime, and illegal immigration.

Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc expressed that there is mutual interest in border protection. Recently, Canada has collaborated with its national police and border services to enhance technological and operational capabilities, including drones and helicopters.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller mentioned this week that Ottawa is contemplating additional border measures, noting that the flow of migrants from Canada to the U.S. is comparably “a significant weekend at the Mexico border.”

He emphasized: “We have a job not to make our problems the Americans' problems and they have a job not to make their problems ours.”

While Canada is not completely ruling out retaliation, conversations on that front are not currently taking place.

“Let’s take things step by step,” Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said, as part of a “Team Canada” initiative aimed at winning over U.S. leaders leading up to the election. “We need to be methodical. We have always been. We’ve been there before.”

For Trudeau, maintaining a united front toward the Americans is a complicated task, especially as his approval ratings have significantly declined over the past 18 months, including in his own party. Last month, a number of MPs confronted him about resigning, arguing that many Canadians have grown disenchanted with his leadership.

Citizen sentiment toward Trudeau and his party has soured, with polls indicating that many blame him for rising food and rent prices, a national housing crisis, and immigration policies that he has recently acknowledged were flawed. Some Canadians are eager for an election to take place before the planned vote next fall.

Even provincial leaders who rely heavily on trade with the U.S. have sided with Trump over Trudeau, seeing it as politically expedient to distance themselves from the prime minister.

Prominent premiers have urged Trudeau’s government to take Trump’s concerns into account. Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith characterized the President-elect’s complaints as “valid.”

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has positioned himself as a key voice on bilateral relations, frequently addressing trade and tariff matters before the federal government does. As the province houses Canada’s largest automotive industry, Ford advocates for strengthening the alliance, stating that Ontario can help “build up Fortress Am-Can.”

Ford's push for an emergency meeting between Canada’s 13 premiers and Trudeau led to a virtual gathering, where he expressed discontent with the federal government's reaction, saying, “the federal government has been slow to react and is stuck on its backfoot.”

Unions are also seeking representation in Trudeau’s Canada-U.S. relations Cabinet committee.

“Union leaders representing millions of workers that pay taxes, that are reliant on good, strong jobs and a good economy have to be part of the solutions,” Bea Bruske, head of the Canadian Labour Congress, told PMG.

As the largest union organization in the country, the CLC has yet to meet with the committee, though it has had discussions with cabinet members. During a conversation with Trudeau on Tuesday, Bruske conveyed that union workers are “relying on the government to take some action.”

This week, the New Democratic Party, Canada’s progressive party, initiated an emergency debate in the House of Commons regarding the proposed tariffs, aiming to win over union workers, a demographic that has been swayed by the Conservatives.

“It’s not a time for us to be that friendly, nice neighbor. It’s a time to fight for Canadians,” NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh asserted.

“Trudeau has shown weakness so far by not taking this seriously, by not having a plan in place, by not calling a jobs war room, by not taking the threat for the seriousness that it deserves.”

Trudeau’s administration maintains that the Liberals are best equipped to handle Trump, given their past experiences.

On Wednesday night, Freeland underscored Trudeau's history of dealing with U.S. leaders.

"He was an effective partner for Barack Obama. He was an effective partner for President Trump. He was an effective partner for President Biden, who is still President," she noted, expressing confidence in his ability to effectively engage with President-elect Trump.

Although Trump has not publicly mentioned his Monday call with Trudeau, the prime minister’s cabinet continues to highlight its significance.

“Truly, it’s very meaningful that the prime minister was able to speak to the president last night, shortly after the president’s announcement,” Freeland commented.

“That’s the key relationship.”

Camille Lefevre contributed to this report for TROIB News