GOP Regains Control of the Senate

The chamber will significantly influence both the legislative agenda for the upcoming year and the new president's capacity to select a Cabinet.

GOP Regains Control of the Senate
Republicans have regained control of the Senate after four years in the minority, positioning the GOP to significantly influence nominations and upcoming policy debates, regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the presidential election.

This victory is substantial, albeit largely anticipated, for the GOP, which made significant investments in candidate recruitment this cycle. Equipped with an advantageous electoral map, national Republicans actively engaged in competitive primaries across battleground states to maximize their strengths for the general election. Their strategy was successful.

Republicans swiftly flipped West Virginia and secured Ohio around 11:30 p.m. Republican Tim Sheehy has been leading in most recent polls in Montana, although it is still too early to make an official announcement regarding that race.

They have potential opportunities to gain ground in states such as Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. However, Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott both won reelection, eliminating opportunities for Democrats to offset their losses by flipping a Republican-held seat.

The GOP will take over the Senate as longtime leader Mitch McConnell steps down from his leadership position, and it remains uncertain who will succeed him. Elections for Senate GOP leadership are scheduled for next week, with two of McConnell's long-time allies, Senators John Thune and John Cornyn, alongside conservative Senator Rick Scott in the race for majority leader. Other candidates may still enter the competition.

While the presidential race remains uncalled, should Harris prevail, the Senate could become a significant obstacle for her administration. Republicans have indicated they will challenge even Cabinet confirmations, making any substantial policy initiatives from the current vice president extremely difficult to pass.

Conversely, a Republican-led Senate would be advantageous for a Trump presidency, allowing for the confirmation of nominees and control over legislative matters. The size of the majority will be crucial, especially given that some Republicans in the Senate have historically diverged from Trump, including Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Their influence is likely to expand in this new majority, particularly if Trump is in the White House. However, if Republicans gain additional seats, those moderate voices could be diminished in their ability to impact nominations and other issues requiring a simple majority for passage.

As of early Wednesday, Republican candidates in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are leading, and party operatives believe their outcomes will largely hinge on Trump's performance. Democratic candidates in those states are not significantly outpacing Harris. If Republicans win in these three states, they could expand their majority to 55 seats, especially as they are favored in Montana. In Arizona, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego has a comfortable lead, while results in Nevada, known for its slow ballot counting, remain unavailable.

Given the 60-vote requirement for most legislation, the GOP will still need to collaborate with Democrats on certain priorities. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is expected to remain the top Democrat in the chamber after four years of leading the Senate; he had maintained until the end that his party could defy expectations, as they did in 2022 when they gained a Senate seat.

The Democratic Party anticipated a challenging cycle, with two incumbent Democrats contesting in red states—Ohio and Montana—and Senator Joe Manchin choosing to retire, effectively ceding that seat to Republicans. The best opportunities for pickups were in red states like Texas and Florida.

Nevertheless, barring a drastic change to the filibuster rules, the Senate will require bipartisan cooperation to advance most legislation, including essential measures that will surface next year, such as government funding and raising the debt ceiling. Republicans have also expressed a desire to address core conservative issues, a goal that would be facilitated by a Republican presidency and House, neither of which have yet been decided. “As a new Republican Senate majority, our focus will be to take on an agenda that reflects America’s priorities — lower prices, less spending, secure borders, and American energy dominance,” stated Senator John Barrasso, the current GOP conference chair, late Tuesday night.

As this cycle concludes, Democrats are expected to promptly launch a campaign offensive. The party is keenly eyeing potential pickup opportunities in North Carolina and Texas in 2026, while having only a few competitive seats to defend, particularly Georgia and Michigan.

Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News