The crucial choice with potential to mold AOC's future

A career move that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pursued five months ago may now seem less rational.

The crucial choice with potential to mold AOC's future
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez finds herself at another pivotal moment.

Five months ago, she opted to engage more deeply with her fellow House Democrats by vying for a top position on the influential Oversight Committee. However, she was ultimately unsuccessful against the more senior Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia and subsequently left the committee.

Now, Ocasio-Cortez has a fresh opportunity. Connolly unexpectedly announced on Monday that he will soon step down for health reasons, presenting her with another important decision—one that is even more critical given the significant shifts within the Democratic Party since her last attempt to ascend the House hierarchy.

As the pressures of President Donald Trump’s second term mount, Democratic voters are increasingly eager for younger, more dynamic leadership. Ocasio-Cortez, 35, has recently traveled across the country, rallying crowds alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders and stirring speculation around a possible White House campaign.

In this context, the position of ranking member on the House Oversight Committee seems less appealing, and Ocasio-Cortez has remained both publicly and privately noncommittal as discussions regarding Connolly’s successor take shape.

Even some of her colleagues who had previously supported her Oversight bid are uncertain about her decision.

“The group of us who were her whip team have asked for her plans, and she's still sorting out what she wants to do,” said Rep. Becca Balint. “I think, to the person, we've all said, ‘Just let us know what you want to do, and we'll work on your behalf.’”

This sentiment resonates throughout the House Democratic Caucus, where many believe she is well-suited for the Oversight role—a position requiring media acumen, quick thinking, and a political edge.

Yet, some outside Capitol Hill advise that she might be better served by pursuing a larger platform to influence the future direction of the Democratic Party. Instead of taking a mid-level House position, they suggest she should consider preparing for a Senate run or even a presidential bid by 2028.

“I think the work being done in Oversight by the minority party is way less important than the work being done in communities and across America painting a different path, a different vision for the Democratic Party,” noted Corbin Trent, a former aide to Ocasio-Cortez.

“I think we really are in the midst of defining what the next political era could be and defining what the Democratic Party should be,” said an ally of Ocasio-Cortez who requested anonymity. “And I think she has a much bigger role to play in that conversation than she does in the kind of nitty-gritty of gaining power within the House.”

Signs indicate that Ocasio-Cortez may be indecisive herself. Even after her defeat to Connolly, she has worked to present herself as a team player, shifting from her previous image as a prominent member of the Squad—a group often in opposition to the established Democratic leadership. She has actively contributed to the party campaign arm and assuaged concerns about her history of supporting primary challenges against Democratic incumbents.

Praise has flowed in from her House colleagues for her ability to stay on message during her rallies with Sanders. Some believe that Ocasio-Cortez, as one of the party's leading communicators, could effectively satisfy the base's craving for a more vigorous opposition to Trump in a key leadership role.

There’s nothing preventing her from accepting the Oversight position while keeping an eye on future opportunities for higher office. Should the Democrats reclaim the House majority next year, Ocasio-Cortez could gain substantial subpoena power and lead efforts to investigate the Trump administration. This could provide a significant platform for an ambitious Democrat, albeit with significant responsibilities.

Many of her colleagues hope she will embrace this challenge, believing she would be the frontrunner if she chooses to run.

“Folks are asking us to use every tool that we can to hold this administration accountable,” stated Rep. Emily Randall, a member of the Oversight Committee who said she would support Ocasio-Cortez’s candidacy.

“I think my constituents and the American people want us to show the fight against the harm being done, and Alex has been one of the strongest voices on that,” added Rep. Pat Ryan. “When you're in an existential fight, and you're on a team, you want to have your best players in all the key roles.”

An anonymous House Democratic aide remarked that the caucus had made a “mistake” in selecting Connolly to lead the committee last year and now has a chance to “right that wrong and put in one of the most powerful voices in a high-profile position.”

In an interview on Monday, Ocasio-Cortez stated that “right now there’s no vacancy” and that she wished to show respect for Connolly, who has not yet formally resigned from the committee.

While she might be the strong favorite if she chooses to run, challenges remain. To regain her position on the committee, she would first need to step down from the more sought-after Energy and Commerce Committee, a move that would require senior leaders to adjust existing caucus rules and possibly rearrange assignments. Most Democrats believe this would merely be a formality if she decides to pursue the Oversight role.

Additionally, there is already a candidate in the race. Connolly has appointed Rep. Stephen Lynch to lead the committee in his absence, and Lynch expressed his intention to seek the permanent position, having Connolly's endorsement. On Tuesday morning, he presented on behalf of the committee during a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting about the upcoming impact of Republicans’ pending domestic policy legislation.

“It’s a great committee,” said Lynch, 70, in an interview. “There are a lot of younger members on the committee. It’s probably the youngest committee and the committee with the least seniority and time on the Hill. I think having a little bit of balance will help.”

However, Lynch has previously pursued the top Oversight slot twice and, marked by his moderate past, has not succeeded. He initially opposed the Affordable Care Act but has since embraced it, and he once resisted supporting gay marriage in his role as a state legislator, though he has since become an advocate for LGBTQ+ rights.

Should Ocasio-Cortez decide against running for the position, it could lead to multiple other young, ambitious Democrats on the panel entering the race. Reps. Jasmine Crockett of Texas is expected to launch her campaign if Ocasio-Cortez opts out, while Reps. Ro Khanna of California, Maxwell Frost of Florida, and Robert Garcia of California are also potential contenders.

James del Carmen for TROIB News