Amid Market Plunge, Johnson and Trump Hasten to Display Progress on Their Agendas

The president assisted the speaker in addressing a challenge over the weekend. However, navigating a budget through the House will prove to be a significantly greater challenge.

Amid Market Plunge, Johnson and Trump Hasten to Display Progress on Their Agendas
Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump are under increasing pressure to advance their bold legislative agenda. As the financial markets begin to wobble in response to Trump's new global tariffs, the urgency for progress intensifies, and the two leaders are set to collaborate closely this week.

On Sunday, Johnson pledged to push a revised budget plan through the House this week, igniting a final effort to pass the GOP’s extensive domestic policy megabill. This move comes amid rising dissent from fiscal conservatives within his party who perceive the Senate-approved framework as a precursor to capitulating on spending reductions.

During a private call with GOP members, Johnson pointed to the market instability as a compelling reason for the House to act swiftly without attempting amendments to the adjusted plan. However, with Johnson aiming for a vote on Wednesday, a faction of fiscally conservative Republicans remains skeptical.

"It's still going to fail on the floor,” remarked one anonymous member candidly reflecting on the prospects of the budget proposal.

This is where Trump’s influence becomes critical. Republican leaders believe they can ultimately push the budget measure through the House with Trump's assistance, as he has successfully rallied GOP dissenters on significant votes earlier this year, including a recent spending bill, a previous budget vote, and even Johnson’s ascension as speaker.

As the final vote approaches, the “Big Six” budget negotiators—comprising Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo, House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and top White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett—are expected to convene Tuesday for their regular weekly meeting. Bessent has been advocating for the House's swift action amidst the tariff-induced market downturn.

Moreover, Trump assisted Johnson in resolving a troubling intra-GOP conflict involving proxy voting for new parents, which had caused a paralysis on the House floor and led Johnson to dismiss lawmakers early last week. Trump communicated with both Johnson and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna regarding the matter and publicly addressed it, appearing to align with Luna’s proposal while allowing Johnson to find a solution.

On Sunday, Johnson announced an agreement whereby Luna would withdraw her proxy-voting legislation, which she had advanced through a discharge petition, and he would discontinue his efforts to eliminate the bill. Instead, Johnson informed GOP members that the House would seek to implement an alternative voting process for new parents that does not permit proxy voting, a stance opposed by many conservatives.

In expressing gratitude for Trump’s intervention, Luna stated, “I’m glad to see this resolved.”

However, navigating the budget impasse is likely to be far more complex.

For one, Trump must persuade numerous fiscal hawks, not just a single dissenting voice. Multiple members swiftly declared their opposition following Saturday’s Senate approval of the budget framework, including Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, a prominent hard-right figure, as well as members like Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona and Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania, who are not typically known for dissenting against leadership.

The staunch critics are frustrated over the modest spending cut goals outlined in the Senate’s basic budget plan, creating a situation where enough opposition exists to jeopardize it on the House floor. With a slim 220-213 majority following two special elections in Florida, Johnson can afford to lose only three Republicans in a party-line vote if all members are present.

House GOP leaders recognize the challenges ahead as they prepare for a crucial vote before the chamber's two-week recess starting Thursday. If it appears the vote may fail, some aides have suggested deferring it and sending the budget resolution to a conference committee of House and Senate leaders for negotiation.

Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland proposed another route: postponing the budget plan and focusing instead on drafting the final megabill while resolving the tax and spending cuts on which both chambers have been at odds. Senior GOP aides believe the House will still eventually need to approve the final budget plan.

For now, however, GOP leaders are counting on Trump to leverage his influence to bring dissenters into line and finalize the budget plan this week. They fear that postponing a definitive vote would convey another negative signal to the markets, exacerbating the turmoil over the tariffs.

Johnson and other GOP leaders conveyed in a Friday letter to members that “time is of the essence” with the “debt limit X-date approaching, border security resources diminishing, markets unsettled, and the largest tax increase on working families looming.”

The leadership asserts that the House’s framework remains part of the Senate-approved plan, and senior GOP aides have privately maintained that once fully explained to members, they can secure their support. Yet, some aides express concern that Johnson's decision to send members home early last Tuesday hindered the education effort.

Johnson faced pointed questions on the Sunday conference call regarding both the budget and the tariffs, and he is expected to encounter further discontent during a closed-door GOP conference meeting on Tuesday morning.

So far, Johnson's rationale has not resonated well with fiscal conservatives. He and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise met with House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington on Tuesday to discuss their next steps, according to anonymous sources.

However, Arrington publicly voiced serious concerns about the Senate plan, and after its approval, he described the revised framework as “unserious," remarks that strengthened the opposition from hard-liners.

Key Budget Committee Republicans and members of the Freedom Caucus have engaged in a flurry of strategizing over the weekend regarding the path forward.

Meanwhile, senior Republicans felt encouraged when Trump expressed his support for the revised Senate plan in a Truth Social post, urging House and Senate Republicans to advance it “IMMEDIATELY.” They anticipate Trump will remain actively involved in the process, reaching out to secure support from the remaining dissenters in the coming days, as he promised Senate Republicans he would do in a recent White House meeting.

Nonetheless, convincing the dissenters this time may prove challenging.

Rohan Mehta for TROIB News

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