2024's Most Inaccurate Political Predictions

One of the most glaringly inaccurate predictions about the 2024 presidential election, which was widely expected to be “boring” a year ago, turned out to be clearly misguided.

Boring? Take a look at one eventful eight-day stretch in July: On the 13th, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt. On the 18th, at the Republican National Convention, he recounted the incident while sporting a comically large ear bandage. By the 21st, President Joe Biden effectively ended his own reelection campaign, leading Vice President Kamala Harris to assume the role of the Democratic Party’s leading candidate with just over 100 days to go until the election. Chaotic and news-filled? Absolutely. Boring? Not in the least.

If you misjudged that one, you’re certainly not alone. Being human entails making errors, experiencing surprises, and having expectations dashed repeatedly.

In light of this, here’s a collection of some of the most misguided predictions regarding the political landscape of 2024:

**Joe Biden won’t pardon Hunter**
Predicted by: John Harwood, among others
Hunter Biden faced significant legal challenges this year, with convictions in a federal gun case and a guilty plea on various tax-related charges totaling around $1.4 million. Despite the pressure on his father, President Joe Biden, and his administration confirmed that Hunter would not receive a pardon. “Have you ruled out a pardon for your son?” ABC News’ David Muir asked Biden on June 6. “Yes,” the president replied. But on December 1, Biden surprised many by pardoning Hunter, prompting ridicule for those who believed his previous denials.

**Kamala Harris will win the presidential election**
Predicted by: Rob Reiner and many others
In the final weeks of the campaign, there was a surge of optimism for Democrats, with some polls showing Harris in the lead and her rally crowds significantly larger than Trump’s. On the eve of the election, Rob Reiner expressed the sentiment with a tweet that framed the election as a renewal of democracy. Ultimately, Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

**Elon Musk will either lose control of Twitter or sell it**
Predicted by: Scott Galloway
Galloway believed Musk would part ways with Twitter for financial reasons, suggesting even very wealthy individuals can face cash flow challenges. Instead, Musk solidified his command over the platform, altering its operations and content moderation policies to suit his preferences.

**The 2024 election will see a “landslide of election rigging claims”**
Predicted by: Scott Adams
Adams claimed that the United States would soon witness overwhelming allegations of election rigging. As it turned out, Trump's claims of electoral fraud were unfounded and lacked evidence.

**If Trump wins, there will be riots in Washington and New York**
Predicted by: Michael McKenna
While Trump did ultimately win, the anticipated riots failed to materialize in major cities.

**Trump will lose his immunity case, go on trial on March 4, and spend the rest of his life in prison**
Predicted by: George Conway
Although Trump initially lost his immunity case, the Supreme Court ultimately ruled in his favor. His anticipated trial did not occur, and with Trump winning the election, the likelihood of him facing prison time diminished.

**Biden will beat Trump**
Predicted by: Numerous commentators
Many analysts, including journalist Juan Williams and others, believed Biden held various advantages that would ensure his victory. However, the prevailing economic concerns and declining approval ratings ultimately shaped the electoral outcome.

**Joe Biden will benefit from an early debate**
Predicted by: Biden’s advisers
The Biden campaign's hope that an early debate would galvanize support backfired, as his performance revealed deteriorating mental acuity and led to significant concerns among fellow Democrats.

**Trump will no-show his debate with Biden**
Predicted by: James Carville
Contrary to expectations, Trump participated in the debate, turning out to be one of the most pivotal moments of the election.

**The markets will crash if Trump is convicted in New York**
Predicted by: John Carney
When Trump was convicted, instead of crashing, the markets experienced significant gains.

**Matt Gaetz will be the next attorney general**
Predicted by: Mike Engleman and @catturd2
Despite initial support, Gaetz's nomination for Attorney General crumbled amid controversies, leading him to withdraw.

**RFK Jr. won’t be picked to lead HHS**
Predicted by: Howard Lutnick
Contrary to Lutnick’s assertion, Trump appointed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

**Trump will pick a female running mate**
Predicted by: Nikole Killion and others
Many expected Trump to select a female running mate to address gender issues amid the election. Instead, he chose Sen. JD Vance.

**History will repeat itself with a chaotic Dem convention in Chicago**
Predicted by: Bill McGurn and others
Despite anticipations of turmoil reminiscent of the 1968 Democratic convention, the 2024 event passed without significant incident.

**The “GOP will be splintered more than it has been in decades”**
Predicted by: Benjamin Rothove
Despite expectations of fragmentation, the Republican Party emerged united under Trump, controlling all major governmental branches.

**Nikki Haley will be the GOP nominee**
Predicted by: Jonathan Rauch and Paul Poast
Haley's campaign struggled, securing only a couple of wins, while Trump claimed the nomination with ease.

**Nikki Haley will be the No Labels candidate for president**
Predicted by: Ari Fleischer
Fleischer’s predictions fell flat as Haley ended her campaign soon after an unsuccessful Super Tuesday.

**Netanyahu will be unseated as Israeli prime minister**
Predicted by: Sigal Samuel
Unlike forecasts of his imminent removal, Netanyahu remained in power despite significant challenges.

**Immigration, border or asylum legislation will pass**
Predicted by: Matthew Yglesias
Despite optimism for bipartisan progress, legislation failed to materialize due to Trump’s influence.

**The “13 keys” model will correctly predict the election**
Predicted by: Allan Lichtman
After 40 years of accurate predictions, Lichtman's model failed this time, with significant implications for his credibility. Despite the backlash, he has publicly acknowledged the failure of his prediction.

This serves as a reminder that predicting political outcomes can be a volatile endeavor, filled with unforeseen twists and turns.

Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News