A no-win situation: Trump's tariffs ignite worldwide opposition
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, has warned of a potential 25 percent tax on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. This declaration has raised significant global apprehension about the possible repercussions and the rising trend of protectionism.
These announcements have raised significant concerns globally regarding their possible impacts and the rising trend of protectionism.
In his latest meeting with Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau characterized the discussions as "an excellent conversation" but did not provide substantial insights on the proposed tariff policy.
No updates were provided about the potential implementation of these threatened tariffs.
In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed worries about severe economic repercussions, warning that Trump's plan could result in inflation and job losses in both nations. She stated, "For every tariff, there will be a kind response until we put at risk our shared enterprises." Sheinbaum pointed out that tariffs would threaten U.S. companies with operations in Mexico, such as General Motors and Ford.
A report from S&P Global released on Friday further emphasized the potential adverse effects, indicating that U.S. and European automakers could suffer a loss of up to 17 percent of their combined annual core profits in a worst-case scenario if the U.S. imposes significant tariffs on European nations and key allies like Mexico and Canada.
The repercussions of tariffs were evident during Trump's first term, especially from the 2018-2019 tariff policies, which negatively impacted the global trade landscape.
A 2019 U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that numerous U.S. businesses encountered obstacles stemming from trade tensions, including supply chain disruptions, rising costs due to tariffs, stockpiling as a precaution against trade uncertainty, and pressure from clients to absorb tariff-related expenses, which often result in diminishing profit margins.
Overall global manufacturing faced contraction in 2019 as a direct result of Trump's tariff regulations.
The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered a slight increase from 49.5 in August to 49.7 in September, but it remained below the critical 50-mark for five consecutive months, indicating declining output across a majority of businesses.
According to the Tax Foundation, the Trump administration enacted "nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans" by imposing tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019. This represented one of the largest tax increases in decades, significantly affecting companies that sell imported goods as well as multinational corporations.
President Joe Biden has also condemned Trump's proposed tariff measures, referring to them as "counterproductive." He commented, "I hope he rethinks it, and I think it's a counterproductive thing to do."
In light of the impending tariff threats, a coalition of Democrats from various states has proposed a bill citing the additional financial burden on American families. Representative Suzan DelBene, one of the bill's authors, remarked, "Imposing sweeping tariffs on imported goods would raise prices on consumer products by thousands of dollars a year." She warned that such tariffs would not only escalate costs domestically and likely plunge the economy into recession but would also harm trade relations with allies, potentially causing significant retaliatory measures that could adversely affect American workers, farmers, and businesses.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics shared these apprehensions, estimating that Trump's broader tariff proposals could cost the average American household over $2,600 annually.
A 2023 report from the U.S. International Trade Commission further illustrated the negative consequences, revealing that U.S. importers faced the burden of Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs from 2018 to 2021. For instance, Section 232 resulted in a 24 percent drop in steel imports, a 2.4 percent rise in steel prices, a 31 percent decrease in aluminum imports, and a 1.6 percent increase in aluminum prices. While domestic production experienced minor growth, elevated input costs significantly impacted downstream industries.
Trump's tariff strategies have raised considerable alarm regarding their potential repercussions on U.S. imports, disruptions in the global supply chain, and negative effects on the economy. The threat of retaliation and the escalation of trade wars remain pressing issues among world leaders.
As Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, has stated, China believes that cooperative economic and trade relations with the U.S. serve mutual interests. "No one will win a trade war or a tariff war," he asserted.
Mathilde Moreau for TROIB News