Trump’s endorsement is starting to show its limits

Tuesday was a rough primary night for Donald Trump — and he wasn’t even on the ballot.

The former president endorsed a replacement for Sen. Mitt Romney, but Utah voters picked a Trump skeptic instead. He backed his spiritual adviser for an open South Carolina House seat only to watch him narrowly lose in a runoff. Trump threw his support to the Colorado GOP chair for a House district; he was blown out by more than 30 points.

On the heels of two other recent flops and one high-profile near-miss in Virginia that could have been embarrassing, the string of losses mars a nearly unblemished record this cycle.

The Trump endorsement is still clearly powerful — and highly coveted by Republicans — and Tuesday’s losses are notable because they are so rare. Trump’s backing is priceless political currency, so it’s jarring when its recipients fall short, indicating there is a limit to his sway and political operation: Trump’s endorsement is powerful, but it’s not all-powerful.

He can’t single-handedly defeat heavy outside spending against his chosen candidates, as the results indicate. And he can’t save them from personal controversies that turn voters off.

Trump has largely been on the same page as GOP leadership in backing candidates in congressional races, and those chosen candidates have typically succeeded in the primaries. That has proved to be a critical strategy in battleground races, where they boosted governing-minded moderates who are more likely to succeed in the general election than hard-liners.

But the misses on Tuesday were all in red seats Republicans are favored to win in the fall, exposing the ideological factions in the GOP that have been at war all cycle.

The losses in Colorado, Utah and South Carolina mark only the second, third and fourth time that a federal candidate has failed with Trump’s endorsement this cycle. The first was in New Jersey’s Senate race, where Trump backed Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, the wife of a longtime Trump adviser. She lost her primary earlier this month.

And on Tuesday, many Trump endorsees came with their own baggage.

In Utah, Trump surprised Republicans when he backed Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs in the race to replace Trump tormentor Mitt Romney shortly before the state’s GOP convention. That nod helped Staggs win the convention, but he lacked the resources to make his endorsement well known to primary voters.

Voters instead picked Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who is more willing than most to criticize the former president and has refused to outright endorse him. As an incumbent congressman, Curtis benefited from the large field of lesser-known candidates and millions in spending from super PACs. His win could be particularly galling to Trump’s orbit because he has been critical of the former president, including calling for Trump to be censured in the aftermath of Jan. 6, 2021.

A mild-mannered moderate, he is more similar to Romney than the MAGA movement, and Tuesday’s primary demonstrated that’s a less toxic position in the Mormon-influenced state of Utah.

In Colorado, state GOP Chair Dave Williams angered fellow Republicans when he sent out an email from the state GOP account titled “God Hates Pride” that described LGBTQ+ people as “godless groomers” and “creeps.” His colleagues also accused him of using state party funds on his congressional race. He lost to conservative commentator Jeff Crank.

In South Carolina, pastor Mark Burns had called for teachers who push an LGBTQ+ agenda in schools to “be immediately terminated," lied about obtaining a bachelor’s degree, misrepresented his military service and urged protesters in Washington ahead of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. He narrowly lost the primary runoff to nurse practitioner Sherri Biggs.

In those races, Trump’s loss is the establishment’s triumph.

Mainstream GOP groups — who have spent big in primaries trying to cull hard-liners from the House Republican Conference — sought to block Williams and Burns. In those instances, Trump’s preferences clashed with Republicans’ desire to avoid adding to the group of rabble-rousers who have derailed their legislative agenda and ignited intraparty wars over the last two years.

Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action, two super PACs that have played in safe-seat Republican primaries across the country this cycle in an attempt to thwart potential troublemakers, dropped about $2 million to boost Crank over Williams. Burns was also the target of more than $500,000 in outside spending from those two groups.

The loss of Williams and Burns is a huge relief to mainstream Republicans, as was attorney Jeff Hurd’s win in another Colorado district. He beat the far-right Ron Hanks, who proved so controversial that the top House GOP super PAC spent against him because it worried he could lose the red-leaning seat.

It wasn’t all bad news for Trump on Tuesday.

In Colorado’s battleground 8th District, state Rep. Gabe Evans easily defeated his primary challenger, who was backed by the state party. Evans had the support of Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson as they target the seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo.

And in safe seats, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), who snagged a Trump endorsement, prevailed after switching districts to a safer district. As of early Wednesday morning, Trump-backed Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Utah) was narrowly ahead of her primary challenger, who’s running to her right.

The mixed showing comes as another extremely tight race in which Trump played remains uncertain.

The former president made a rare endorsement against an incumbent in Virginia’s 5th District — a move that many considered a boon to state Sen. John McGuire, Rep. Bob Good’s primary challenger. (Trump was looking to oust Good as payback for his initial endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary.)

But his endorsement didn’t cause the type of blowout that was widely expected. The race is still too close to call, The Associated Press said earlier this week. McGuire has a slight lead, and if he wins, the Trump endorsement almost certainly helped push him across the finish line. But with the contest heading to a recount, it wasn’t exactly a show of force.