The drone enthusiasts: Trump's circle launches an assault on fighter pilots
Billionaires surrounding the president-elect are advocating for military drones described as having the capability to "can basically do almost anything."
Recent remarks from technology investors involved in uncrewed systems—who have also been influential in Trump’s campaign—suggest a significant shift in defense strategy within his forthcoming administration. This shift could see costly weapons systems being reconsidered in favor of unmanned aerial and ground vehicles.
Elon Musk, the world's wealthiest individual and co-leader of an advisory panel focused on reducing government expenditures, stands out as a prominent advocate for drone technology as a substitute for expensive, often troubled crewed fighter jets.
In a series of posts on X over the past week, the Tesla founder stated, “manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones.” He also shared a video showcasing Chinese drones and criticized the production of crewed fighters like the F-35, remarking, “Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35.”
Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who has donated millions to Trump and has begun investment in small defense startups, echoed this sentiment on his podcast by asserting, “the country that wins the drone war and the technology war underneath that is going to have the best military.”
He recounted a conversation with a former special forces officer who claimed that “if you take 40 men and drones, you can basically do almost anything now … drones are getting more smart and they're able to operate in swarms and so forth.”
Musk and Andreessen are among a larger group of tech advocates affiliated with Trump’s administration; others have been appointed or are reportedly seeking positions in his government.
Trump's nominee for Navy leadership is businessman John Phelan, a donor with no prior Navy connections but who leads the private equity firm Rugger Management. Also considered for the deputy secretary of defense is Trae Stephens, a co-founder of Anduril Industries, a defense tech startup backed by Palmer Luckey, another Trump supporter. Additionally, billionaire investor Stephen Feinberg, co-CEO of Cerberus Capital Management, known for its investments in defense firms, is reportedly a candidate for a top position at the Pentagon.
“Could DOD accelerate the fielding of drones? Absolutely,” stated Byron Callan, a defense industry analyst at Capital Alpha Partners. He clarified, however, that “it’s not a question of either/or; it's a question of the right mix” of crewed and uncrewed systems.
He noted that Musk’s social media influence had a direct impact on the market, saying, “knocked 3 or 4 percent off Lockheed Martin’s stock price the day after it happened, though it's recovered a little bit. These debates are going to happen, and these comments matter and they'll cause stocks to move.”
In discussing defense measures, Andreessen pointed out that countermeasures against small drones present a significant expense for adversaries, using the example of a U.S. Navy operation in the Red Sea: “You can defend against one drone with a $20 million missile,” he said. “You can't defend against 10,000 drones, and so you need counter drones.”
While the Pentagon is investing heavily in new aircraft and naval drones—including the Replicator program, which aims to deploy numerous low-cost drones for various military operations—there are currently no plans to eliminate crewed aircraft.
High-profile investors are also targeting traditional armored vehicles. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who previously chaired the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Board under Trump, suggested last month that the Army should dispose of its "useless" tanks in favor of AI-driven drones. “I read somewhere that the U.S. had thousands and thousands of tanks stored somewhere … give them away. Buy a drone instead,” he expressed at a recent investment summit in Saudi Arabia.
Schmidt is the founder of White Stork, a startup focused on developing AI-enhanced military drones.
One defense industry advisor, speaking anonymously, indicated that “defense policy made by investors means they’re going to have a huge bias towards investable companies and tech instead of the companies and platforms that are actually used in war.”
If the incoming administration moves forward with its plan to reduce crewed military assets, they may face substantial resistance.
In a recent address, Adm. Samuel Paparo, chief of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, emphasized the limitations of smaller uncrewed systems, suggesting they cannot substitute for crewed vessels and aircraft in vast operational areas like the Pacific. “Everybody is stuck in this paradigm of either or,” he stated, noting that the extensive use of drones in Ukraine may not apply universally.
“If you think that’s all of it and we can quit on everything else in the Pacific, you know, how are we going to sustain everything else if we completely give up on air and maritime superiority in the Pacific?” he questioned, sarcastically adding, “Oh, let’s just quit on everything. We’ve got some drones. … All right, well [China]’s got 2,100 fighters … they have a battle force of 200 destroyers. Oh well, roger, we’ve got a couple drones. No problem. You know, we’ve got that Ukraine thing licked.”
Frederick R Cook for TROIB News