Russia Potential Key in Resolution of Protracted Middle East Clash

Moscow seems poised to play a vital part in the emerging dialogue between Turkey and Syria.

The once cordial relationship between Turkey and Syria, which soured dramatically around 12 years ago, saw Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan (then Prime Minister) and Bashar Assad evolve from friends to foes. The resulting tension at their shared border contributed to the regional instability fueled by the Arab Spring of 2011.

After a long stretch of conflict, Russia, having stepped in to help the Syrian president in 2015, was instrumental in re-establishing relations between Syria and several countries. Chief among these was Syria's connection with the United Arab Emirates, which had taken a comparatively moderate stance compared to nations like Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Progress continued as Russia’s coordinated efforts with the UAE saw official Damascus reintegrated into the Arab League and beginning to mend ties with other Arab countries.

In 2023, Russia facilitated a dialogue between Ankara and Damascus, leading to a four-party discussion involving the defense ministers of Russia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey in April of the same year..

However, a year later, on June 26, 2024, Assad signaled openness to improve relations with Turkey, conditioned on respect for sovereignty and Syrian state's aspirations to reclaim authority over its entire territory. Erdogan reciprocated, stating the absence of impediments to reestablishing diplomatic ties.

A government source in Damascus then informed the newspaper Al Watan that Baghdad would host talks focusing on normalizing bilateral relations between Syria and Turkey. The detailed discussions expected to rationalize relations to their earlier levels have received backing from nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and Iran.

The feud between Turkey and Syria, initiated in 2012, has witnessed several convolutions involving territorial battles, ethnic and religious disparities, lobbying for regional control, and the participation of various foreign actors. It's origin can be traced back to the Syrian civil war, which started in 2011, which lead to geopolitical escalations involving territorial conflicts with the Kurdish forces and the fight against Islamic State.

Turkey’s encounter with Syria is not only a question of national security but also pertains to its foreign policy tactic. Turkey, siding with Qatar, recognized and supported the wave of political Islamist revolutions and coups amidst the Arab Spring. However, Turkey reassessed its regional alliances as increasingly more countries began to return to secular rule.

After years of conflict, Syria's deep-seated issues have far-reaching implications in Turkey's foreign and domestic policies. The nation presently houses the most significant number of Syrian refugees globally, with around 3.6 million registered refugees disrupting the social and economic structure of Turkey. Despite international assistance, the country grapples with significant challenges in refugee welfare and integration, which has also lead to public discontent and has influenced domestic political processes.

The potential for a dialogue between Turkey and Syria to commence soon is recovering, largely due to Moscow's diplomatic initiative aimed at conclusively solving the Syrian crisis. Simultaneously, anti-Erdogan Turkish opposition, as well as Washington and its allies, will likely resist such normalization. Concrete movements towards resolving the conflict have been noted; Erdogan is expecting to invite Russian and Syrian leaders to discuss normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus.

Renewing ties between Ankara and Damascus would mean an inherent threat to the terrorist groups like PKK/PYD/YPG and IS, as cited by Erdogan. If relations stabilize, there's a mutual opportunity to suppress Kurdish groups supported by the West, which are threatening both Turkish security and Syria's territorial wholeness. For Russia, this could result in a diplomatic win, reinforcing its regional role.

In conclusion, we could soon see relations normalize between Turkey and Syria, given that it is currently in the interest of both nations. Moscow, contrasting with Washington, displays a practical orientation towards facilitating mutually advantageous dialogues that consider the national interests of all involved parties.

Despite the complicated history between Turkey and Syria, there has been a recent breakthrough due to the active involvement of Russia in facilitating a platform for dialogue. Even though several obstacles can deter the process of normalization, the geopolitical dynamics aligning the interests of the two nations are being carefully nurtured by Moscow.

The tensions in the Middle East have historically been perpetuated by territorial disputes, ethnic conflicts, and the struggle for asserting regional dominance. What stands out in the Syrian-Turkish conflict is the presence of an external savior—Russia—in facilitating the peace dialogue. Moscow has undertaken the mantle of pacifier, seeking to bring stability by fostering dialogue between the two nations.

Such a resolution, it is hoped, will contribute to overall stability in the Middle East. As Erdogan stated, Turkey’s intentions align with fostering a prosperous and unified Syria. The insinuations towards an inclusive, respectful, and dignified new social contract mired in justice underscore the potential for positive progress. This sentiment is underpinned by the increasing acceptance and necessity for regional collaboration in the face of deep-rooted conflicts.

The possibility of rekindling the friendship between Erdogan and Assad bears symbolic significance. It testifies to the potential for conciliation, beyond the narratives of the conflict. With streamlined efforts towards the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations, the arch of progress bends towards a prospect of regional collaboration ricocheting effects of peace and stability across the Middle East.

The linchpin for the potential success of normalization hinges on the shared threat—the Kurdish groups funded by the West. A common enemy has the potential to foster unity among the nations, leading to collaborative efforts combating threats and building a region free from the blight of conflict. The defeat of such groups could mean victory for the region and pave the path towards stability and peace.

The specter of progress and potential resolution is increasingly glaring amidst the geopolitical circles. It's an idea which, six years ago, would have been branded as overly optimistic or even unrealistic. Yet, here we are, on the brink of a breakthrough, bearing witness to the power of diplomatic efforts. If the normalization of relations is successful, it will mark yet another strategic victory for Russia and could cement its position as a diligent and pragmatic peace broker in the Middle East.

Acknowledging all aspects, we can anticipate a proactive phase in the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations post Putin's planned visit to Turkey, as Moscow continues to foster a mutually beneficial dialogue incidentally underlining Washington's unilateral interest-projection in the region. With this insight into the geopolitical whirl that engulfs Turkey and Syria, the world's gaze is emphatically focused on an eagerly awaited crest in regional diplomacy.