In New York governor's race, Hochul's lead narrows versus Zeldin, polls show

ALBANY, N.Y. — Two polls Tuesday showed the race for New York governor getting closer than perhaps many had initially expected in the deep-blue state.

A Siena College Research Institute poll early Tuesday found Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul held an 11-percentage-point edge over Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in a state where Democrats have won every statewide race over the past two decades. That was down from a 17-point lead a month ago.

Then an even closer poll came out in the afternoon: A Quinnipiac University surveyfound Hochul with a razor-thin 50 percent to 46 percent lead over Zeldin — putting Zeldin within striking distance of a potentially major upset.

"In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive," Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. "Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her."

The difference between the two polls is largely due to Quinnipiac finding Zeldin, who lives on Long Island, with better numbers in New York City. Siena had Hochul leading there by a margin of 70 percent to 23 percent; her lead in the Quinnipiac poll was 59 percent to 37 percent.

The Quinnipiac numbers also had Zeldin with a 50 percent to 44 percent lead among voters aged 35 and 49. In the Siena poll, Hochul, who lives in Buffalo, led 49 percent to 42 percent among voters between ages 35 and 54. Both polls had Zeldin ahead narrowly in the New York City suburbs and upstate.

The Quinnipiac numbers found that 28 percent of respondents said crime — which has been the centerpiece of Zeldin’s candidacy — is the most urgent issue facing the state. Only 6 percent pointed to abortion, which has been the focus of most of Hochul’s ads.

A total of 20 percent pointed to inflation; 14 percent to protecting democracy; and 4 percent apiece said immigration, homelessness, and climate change.

Quinnipiac has not previously polled on Hochul’s tenure, with its previous New York statewide survey coming in the waning days of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s tenure in August 2021.

The university released numbers on Oct. 18, 2018 that found Cuomo with a 23-point lead over Republican challenger Marc Molinaro. That wound up being his exact margin of victory.

Quinnipiac polled 1,617 likely voters from Oct. 12-16, and their numbers have a margin of error of 2.4 points.

Earlier Tuesday, Hochul said she always runs for office as if she's behind in the polls. She succeeded Cuomo when he resigned in August 2021 and is looking to be the first woman governor elected in state history.

"I always run like I'm an underdog. I'm a sports fan. Everybody knows that. Always run with that underdog mentality. And I have been taking my message all across the state, been governor just over a year and people have had a chance to see the strength I have; the toughness that required to govern the state," Hochul told reporters after the Siena poll came out.

Zeldin said he continues to campaign around the state, pressing his message of fighting crime and bolstering the economy.

"We’ll be campaigning all throughout the state," Zeldin said during a campaign stop in Queens. "I’ll meet with anybody. I’ll go to any community."