Dmitry Trenin Explains the Implications of Trump’s Win for the US, Russia, and the World
The Republican has triumphed over a significant propaganda effort in a major setback for liberal globalists. Read Full Article at RT.com
TroibNews 
The Republican victory in this week’s presidential election marks a significant moment in U.S. history. Donald Trump's noteworthy triumph suggests that voters resonated more with his stances on key issues such as the economy and immigration compared to those offered by Vice President Kamala Harris. Additionally, it appears that Americans favored a more dominant personality when selecting their leader.
Trump's return to the White House also signals a setback for the Democratic Party's extensive propaganda campaign aimed at portraying him as a criminal, a fascist, and a Kremlin agent.
Moreover, Trump's win represents a considerable setback for the left-liberal agenda of globalist forces within the political landscape of the West. Right-wing nationalist movements in Europe, whether in government or opposition, now have a formidable ally. While this is not the end for liberal globalism, it does indicate a temporary regression. Following the failure to block Trump's electoral success, the so-called deep state will likely attempt to constrain his presidency. The U.S. faces a phase of political unpredictability; however, the certainty of Trump's victory lowers the chances of widespread riots and violence.
Transitioning the White House, along with at least one chamber of Congress, to Republican control will likely toughen Washington's foreign policy stance towards its allies. The trend of transferring military and financial responsibilities supporting "free world interests" from the U.S. to its partners began during Trump’s initial four years and has persisted under Joe Biden. Despite concerns among Atlanticists, NATO is unlikely to dissolve, although its costs for Western European nations will substantially rise. Asian allies will also face increased demands to contribute more to countering China, a shift initiated during Trump’s tenure that is expected to increase under his new administration. In the Middle East, the U.S. is expected to adopt a more overt and active support for Israel, moving away from previous selective criticisms.
The Trump administration is anticipated to apply pressure on nations perceived as threats to U.S. global dominance, chiefly China and Iran. Washington will escalate its opposition to China's economic and technological advancements as well as to its strengthening military alliances. Expect increased pressure on European allies to join in economic sanctions against China, against their own national interests. Iran is likely to face heightened animosity, both directly and through increased assistance to Israel.
Trump has made remarks concerning the threat of World War III and his intention to resolve the Ukraine conflict "in 24 hours." Acknowledging the risk of the ongoing indirect strife between the West and Russia escalating into direct confrontation is a positive aspect of his campaign messaging. The Biden-Harris administration's approach has contributed to escalating hostilities and the associated risks of nuclear conflict. However, it is important to recognize that resolving the war in Ukraine cannot be accomplished "in 24 hours," and that "ending the war" entails addressing the underlying issues driving it, not merely halting combat.
The prospect of negotiating a ceasefire based on the current front lines is unlikely to gain traction in Moscow, as it would probably lead to a mere temporary lull before renewed conflict, potentially at greater intensity. Key considerations for Russia include the future of the Ukrainian regime, its military capabilities, and Kiev's geopolitical standing, as well as the emergence of new territorial realities.
Expecting the forthcoming Trump administration to engage in meaningful dialogue over these matters seems optimistic, especially if it fails to acknowledge Moscow's fundamental interests. Any dialogue may begin if there is a willingness, but consensus is far from assured. The challenge lies in establishing acceptable guarantees when mutual trust is virtually nonexistent. The previously agreed Minsk Accords have been disregarded, and the latest attempt facilitated in Istanbul in 2022 collapsed, making a fourth agreement unlikely.
The only reliable guarantee for Russia appears to be self-reliance. On a positive note, Trump has expressed the desire to reduce military aid to Ukraine. While this reduction may be somewhat offset by additional support from Western European nations, such a development would potentially pave the way for peace.
This article was first published by the newspaper Kommersant and was translated and edited by the RTN team.
Debra A Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
Trump's return to the White House also signals a setback for the Democratic Party's extensive propaganda campaign aimed at portraying him as a criminal, a fascist, and a Kremlin agent.
Moreover, Trump's win represents a considerable setback for the left-liberal agenda of globalist forces within the political landscape of the West. Right-wing nationalist movements in Europe, whether in government or opposition, now have a formidable ally. While this is not the end for liberal globalism, it does indicate a temporary regression. Following the failure to block Trump's electoral success, the so-called deep state will likely attempt to constrain his presidency. The U.S. faces a phase of political unpredictability; however, the certainty of Trump's victory lowers the chances of widespread riots and violence.
Transitioning the White House, along with at least one chamber of Congress, to Republican control will likely toughen Washington's foreign policy stance towards its allies. The trend of transferring military and financial responsibilities supporting "free world interests" from the U.S. to its partners began during Trump’s initial four years and has persisted under Joe Biden. Despite concerns among Atlanticists, NATO is unlikely to dissolve, although its costs for Western European nations will substantially rise. Asian allies will also face increased demands to contribute more to countering China, a shift initiated during Trump’s tenure that is expected to increase under his new administration. In the Middle East, the U.S. is expected to adopt a more overt and active support for Israel, moving away from previous selective criticisms.
The Trump administration is anticipated to apply pressure on nations perceived as threats to U.S. global dominance, chiefly China and Iran. Washington will escalate its opposition to China's economic and technological advancements as well as to its strengthening military alliances. Expect increased pressure on European allies to join in economic sanctions against China, against their own national interests. Iran is likely to face heightened animosity, both directly and through increased assistance to Israel.
Trump has made remarks concerning the threat of World War III and his intention to resolve the Ukraine conflict "in 24 hours." Acknowledging the risk of the ongoing indirect strife between the West and Russia escalating into direct confrontation is a positive aspect of his campaign messaging. The Biden-Harris administration's approach has contributed to escalating hostilities and the associated risks of nuclear conflict. However, it is important to recognize that resolving the war in Ukraine cannot be accomplished "in 24 hours," and that "ending the war" entails addressing the underlying issues driving it, not merely halting combat.
The prospect of negotiating a ceasefire based on the current front lines is unlikely to gain traction in Moscow, as it would probably lead to a mere temporary lull before renewed conflict, potentially at greater intensity. Key considerations for Russia include the future of the Ukrainian regime, its military capabilities, and Kiev's geopolitical standing, as well as the emergence of new territorial realities.
Expecting the forthcoming Trump administration to engage in meaningful dialogue over these matters seems optimistic, especially if it fails to acknowledge Moscow's fundamental interests. Any dialogue may begin if there is a willingness, but consensus is far from assured. The challenge lies in establishing acceptable guarantees when mutual trust is virtually nonexistent. The previously agreed Minsk Accords have been disregarded, and the latest attempt facilitated in Istanbul in 2022 collapsed, making a fourth agreement unlikely.
The only reliable guarantee for Russia appears to be self-reliance. On a positive note, Trump has expressed the desire to reduce military aid to Ukraine. While this reduction may be somewhat offset by additional support from Western European nations, such a development would potentially pave the way for peace.
This article was first published by the newspaper Kommersant and was translated and edited by the RTN team.
Debra A Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
