GOP engages in a tax conflict with minimal political benefits
The package they are working to assemble aims primarily to prevent tax increases rather than to provide extensive new benefits.
TroibNews 
Republicans have not received much appreciation from voters for their tax cuts implemented in 2017, and selling a new round of tax incentives may prove even more challenging.
The current package being developed by Republicans includes proposals for new breaks for tips and overtime pay, along with a more generous deduction for state and local taxes. However, most taxpayers may not notice significant changes in their paychecks because many of these changes extend existing tax breaks that have been in place for several years.
For many voters, it might seem like their tax situation remains unchanged, which poses a unique challenge for GOP lawmakers trying to promote the new measures. To offset the costs of their plans, Republicans are considering spending cuts that are likely to be more visible to their constituents, including potential changes to Medicaid, a widely supported health safety-net program.
Republican leaders are stressing that if no action is taken, millions of Americans could see tax increases at the end of the year. However, it is uncertain how many are aware of or concerned about the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts, or how many will recall that Republicans prevented a tax increase when the time comes.
Some lawmakers recognize that despite dedicating much of their summer to this issue, voter gratitude may be minimal. “It is a different dynamic from 2017,” noted Rep. Adrian Smith, a key tax writer.
In 2017, it was anticipated that 80 percent of Americans would receive tax cuts amounting to an average of $2,100, and shortly after the bill was signed into law, then-President Donald Trump had the IRS adjust tax-withholding guidelines to give taxpayers immediate visibility to the changes in their paychecks. Even then, Republicans struggled to gain positive public perception, as Democrats effectively framed the narrative, suggesting that a significant portion of the tax breaks benefitted wealthy individuals and corporations. Polls indicated that many voters were skeptical that their taxes had decreased.
Now, many of the provisions from that law benefiting individual taxpayers are set to expire, prompting Republicans to focus on continuing well-known benefits like the expanded standard deduction, lower income tax rates, and increased child credits. They are pivoting their messaging to focus on preventing tax increases rather than merely cutting taxes.
“We’re trying to prevent a lot of pain,” said Sen. Steve Daines. Sen. Thom Tillis, facing a challenging reelection campaign, remarked, “In 2017, we were able to campaign on lowering your taxes, and now we have to say, 'We want to keep that going.'”
“It’s a matter of looking back and reminding people of the benefits that they’ve enjoyed, and saying that we’re trying to maintain that,” Tillis added. While individual taxes may not decrease significantly, he emphasized, “what I’m trying to avoid is them looking a lot worse."
Alongside this, Republicans assert that if Democrats were in control, they would allow all the tax cuts to expire, though many of these provisions do have Democratic support. Some lawmakers indicate that their constituents, particularly small business owners, may be more aware of the implications, but it remains uncertain how widespread this understanding is and how much concern exists over losing tax breaks.
Previously, lawmakers engaged in similar debates over the fate of tax cuts from former President George W. Bush, ultimately negotiating a bipartisan agreement with President Barack Obama to extend nearly all of them. This time, Republicans are incorporating additional tax cuts, many courtesy of Trump, for tips and overtime pay and for senior citizens, while some lawmakers are advocating for further expansions like an increase in the child credit. Nonetheless, specific details about these cuts remain closely guarded, leaving questions about their potential impact and reach.
It is also uncertain when taxpayers might start benefiting from these measures. If they do not take effect until next year, individuals could find themselves waiting until they file their returns in 2027 to see any advantages.
Sen. John Cornyn, facing his own tough reelection situation, expressed optimism regarding the significance of the new breaks, stating, “There’s a number of things on the table that could result in some very dramatic decreases in tax burdens.”
Republicans assert that voters could benefit in less direct ways. Rep. Darin LaHood suggested that the legislation would help soothe financial markets, which experienced turmoil due to Trump’s trade conflicts, affecting millions of individuals’ retirement and savings plans. Republicans maintain the measures will bolster the overall economy, although economists are predicting only modest effects.
“We’re predicating our bill on predictability and certainty — there is unpredictability when you could have $4.5 trillion in tax increases at the end of the year,” LaHood, another tax writer, explained. “So, when you make permanent a number of these provisions that is going to help to calm markets and bring predictability.”
However, the attempt to mitigate the deficit through simultaneous cuts to other government programs could create dissatisfaction among constituents. In 2017, lawmakers managed the potential political fallout from pay-fors by focusing on raising obscure business taxes and significantly reducing the state and local tax deduction.
This time, while they aim to ease restrictions on the SALT deduction, which primarily benefits higher-income individuals, they are also looking at more substantial programs affecting lower- to middle-income populations, such as Medicaid, alongside proposals to cut several green energy tax credits.
“It’s the job,” Rep. David Schweikert, another tax writer, observed. “If you’re doing this for the accolades, I strongly suggest another profession."
Max Fischer for TROIB News
The current package being developed by Republicans includes proposals for new breaks for tips and overtime pay, along with a more generous deduction for state and local taxes. However, most taxpayers may not notice significant changes in their paychecks because many of these changes extend existing tax breaks that have been in place for several years.
For many voters, it might seem like their tax situation remains unchanged, which poses a unique challenge for GOP lawmakers trying to promote the new measures. To offset the costs of their plans, Republicans are considering spending cuts that are likely to be more visible to their constituents, including potential changes to Medicaid, a widely supported health safety-net program.
Republican leaders are stressing that if no action is taken, millions of Americans could see tax increases at the end of the year. However, it is uncertain how many are aware of or concerned about the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts, or how many will recall that Republicans prevented a tax increase when the time comes.
Some lawmakers recognize that despite dedicating much of their summer to this issue, voter gratitude may be minimal. “It is a different dynamic from 2017,” noted Rep. Adrian Smith, a key tax writer.
In 2017, it was anticipated that 80 percent of Americans would receive tax cuts amounting to an average of $2,100, and shortly after the bill was signed into law, then-President Donald Trump had the IRS adjust tax-withholding guidelines to give taxpayers immediate visibility to the changes in their paychecks. Even then, Republicans struggled to gain positive public perception, as Democrats effectively framed the narrative, suggesting that a significant portion of the tax breaks benefitted wealthy individuals and corporations. Polls indicated that many voters were skeptical that their taxes had decreased.
Now, many of the provisions from that law benefiting individual taxpayers are set to expire, prompting Republicans to focus on continuing well-known benefits like the expanded standard deduction, lower income tax rates, and increased child credits. They are pivoting their messaging to focus on preventing tax increases rather than merely cutting taxes.
“We’re trying to prevent a lot of pain,” said Sen. Steve Daines. Sen. Thom Tillis, facing a challenging reelection campaign, remarked, “In 2017, we were able to campaign on lowering your taxes, and now we have to say, 'We want to keep that going.'”
“It’s a matter of looking back and reminding people of the benefits that they’ve enjoyed, and saying that we’re trying to maintain that,” Tillis added. While individual taxes may not decrease significantly, he emphasized, “what I’m trying to avoid is them looking a lot worse."
Alongside this, Republicans assert that if Democrats were in control, they would allow all the tax cuts to expire, though many of these provisions do have Democratic support. Some lawmakers indicate that their constituents, particularly small business owners, may be more aware of the implications, but it remains uncertain how widespread this understanding is and how much concern exists over losing tax breaks.
Previously, lawmakers engaged in similar debates over the fate of tax cuts from former President George W. Bush, ultimately negotiating a bipartisan agreement with President Barack Obama to extend nearly all of them. This time, Republicans are incorporating additional tax cuts, many courtesy of Trump, for tips and overtime pay and for senior citizens, while some lawmakers are advocating for further expansions like an increase in the child credit. Nonetheless, specific details about these cuts remain closely guarded, leaving questions about their potential impact and reach.
It is also uncertain when taxpayers might start benefiting from these measures. If they do not take effect until next year, individuals could find themselves waiting until they file their returns in 2027 to see any advantages.
Sen. John Cornyn, facing his own tough reelection situation, expressed optimism regarding the significance of the new breaks, stating, “There’s a number of things on the table that could result in some very dramatic decreases in tax burdens.”
Republicans assert that voters could benefit in less direct ways. Rep. Darin LaHood suggested that the legislation would help soothe financial markets, which experienced turmoil due to Trump’s trade conflicts, affecting millions of individuals’ retirement and savings plans. Republicans maintain the measures will bolster the overall economy, although economists are predicting only modest effects.
“We’re predicating our bill on predictability and certainty — there is unpredictability when you could have $4.5 trillion in tax increases at the end of the year,” LaHood, another tax writer, explained. “So, when you make permanent a number of these provisions that is going to help to calm markets and bring predictability.”
However, the attempt to mitigate the deficit through simultaneous cuts to other government programs could create dissatisfaction among constituents. In 2017, lawmakers managed the potential political fallout from pay-fors by focusing on raising obscure business taxes and significantly reducing the state and local tax deduction.
This time, while they aim to ease restrictions on the SALT deduction, which primarily benefits higher-income individuals, they are also looking at more substantial programs affecting lower- to middle-income populations, such as Medicaid, alongside proposals to cut several green energy tax credits.
“It’s the job,” Rep. David Schweikert, another tax writer, observed. “If you’re doing this for the accolades, I strongly suggest another profession."
Max Fischer for TROIB News
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