'A better process' but not much progress: Where debt talks stand after Tuesday's meeting

Congress and the White House are racing against the clock, and the House and Senate schedules, to find a path to avoiding default on the nation’s debt. President Joe Biden has truncated his international trip. Could late-May recesses also be on the chopping block?

Tuesday’s talks yielded a set of official proxies for Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy voiced optimism about the new “structure” of discussions. But as the key players keep talking, time is ticking. And each chamber is scheduled to be in Washington just a handful of days before the potential June 1 X-date (and not at the same time, either).

A handful of House Democrats will resume a long-shot end run on Wednesday to bypass the sticky debt ceiling and spending negotiations, as a “discharge petition” ripens on the vine today. They’ve waited the mandatory seven days and can now start gathering the 218 signatures needed to force the speaker to bring it up. But Democrats securing a handful of GOP votes is improbable and the procedural timeline — another seven-day wait and then two legislative days before consideration — makes getting this done before the earliest projected X-date a fantasy.

Heading into this new phase, here is where things stand on Capitol Hill:

House GOP:

House Republicans maintain that their job is done. They passed a bill. And now they are waiting for Biden to make a move toward agreeing to the spending restrictions outlined in their bill.

McCarthy signaled Tuesday that he sees Biden’s appointment of Louisa Terrell, Steve Ricchetti and OMB Director Shalanda Young, a Hill and appropriations veteran, to continue negotiations as a positive step. Though he said there's “now a better process” on debt ceiling negotiations, "that doesn’t mean we’re going to get to an agreement."

On the idea of a discharge petition from Democrats, Majority Leader Steve Scalise dismissed the idea that any in his conference would support it.

"No way. Ain't gonna happen," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a centrist in the GOP caucus, said Tuesday on the discharge petition idea.

"No, no, no. We've been clear — they need to negotiate," said freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.).

House Dems:

Though Democrats are making the move on the discharge petition, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was noncommittal on proceeding with that when he returned to the Capitol Tuesday afternoon. The New York Democrat said he hadn’t made a decision yet and was going to consult the White House and other Democrats on the strategy. But, Democratic leaders are expected to tee up the move as soon as Wednesday morning, when they can start collecting signatures.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) said that in addition to trying to hold the line against GOP proposals, Democrats also need to “do a better job of explaining to the American people what these cuts will mean.” He sees a messaging problem. “I’m very concerned because I don’t like the perception of credibility for what the Republicans are doing. What they’re doing is not credible. It’s a hostage situation,” he said Tuesday.

The White House attempted to quell progressive angst late Tuesday night with a statement saying that Biden will “fight” to keep GOP proposals on expanding work requirements for food security programs out of any final deal. The president had flirted with the idea over the weekend, to the dismay of progressives.

Senate GOP:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell remains in the backseat, unwilling to lay a finger on the steering wheel.

“This shouldn’t be this hard,” McConnell said Tuesday. “We know we’re not going to default.”

Sen. Mike Braun also isn’t sweating, calling it “the same old song and dance.” The Indiana Republican is confident “they’ll get something worked out.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is confident of something else: “I’ve got confidence that Kevin McCarthy can’t really negotiate a bad deal, and get it passed in the House and retain his speakership,” he told POLITICO.

Senate Dems:

They’re eyeing both the clock and the speaker.

“I trust President Biden. I’m just very skeptical that there’s going to be an agreement in time,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “We’re gonna get to a point where McCarthy has to decide whether he’s willing to proceed to default.”

And an eight-term House member now in the Senate, Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), has thoughts on his former colleague: “It’s about the House. Kevin’s in shackles. He’s in leg irons and handcuffs. And frankly I don’t think he’s got much capacity to negotiate. And very little capacity to advance a deal,” Welch said in an interview.