Trump Seeks Agreements on Ukraine and Israel, But Faces Challenges
The president is navigating a transformed global landscape that is less accommodating to his approach to dealmaking.
TroibNews 
Donald Trump may be in conflict with Washington, but he remains keen on establishing peaceful relations with the rest of the world.
The incoming 47th president is assembling a Cabinet filled with staunch hard-liners and disruptors who, according to Trump’s detractors, could dismantle the federal government entirely. However, some officials who are familiar with him suggest that the campaigner who thrives on agitation is also reminiscent of the Trump from “The Art of the Deal” — the self-proclaimed negotiation expert who aimed to forge agreements with U.S. adversaries during his previous presidency and intends to do so again.
“I told the president very early in my tenure, ‘You’re going to be known as the peacemaker,’” noted Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump’s last national security adviser during his first term and is seen as a leading candidate for a senior position in the new administration. “I think that is still his vision.”
The challenge lies in the fact that during his first term, Trump struggled to secure successful deals with China, Iran, and North Korea. Furthermore, the global landscape has evolved over the four years since he left office, creating a much harsher international context than before—one that may prolong conflicts like those in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Here are five significant global developments that are likely to complicate Trump’s objectives this time.
1. Russia Is Escalating the War in Ukraine
Trump is already faced with the possibility of failing to deliver on a major campaign promise: ending the war in Ukraine. He has repeatedly claimed he could accomplish this “before I even become president.” This past summer, he even suggested he could resolve the issue “in 24 hours,” presumably by negotiating a cease-fire and a deal wherein Ukraine relinquishes some territory and foregoes future NATO membership in exchange for peace.
However, reaching such an agreement requires relative stability along the front lines. After the election, Trump reportedly cautioned Vladimir Putin against escalating the ongoing invasion. Instead, Putin has amassed forces in Ukraine’s southeast, signaling preparations for a new offensive, and has launched significant missile attacks in recent days.
Ukraine is facing troop shortages. This week, President Joe Biden aimed to bolster Kyiv's position before leaving office by providing long-range missiles, which Ukraine used to strike back at Russia, prompting renewed nuclear threats from Putin. Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Michael Waltz, remarked: "This is another step up the escalation ladder, and no one knows where this is going.”
While this scenario could position Trump as a peacekeeper, as he often warned of “World War III” being the greatest threat to America, both Putin and Ukraine currently seem resistant to compromise. Additionally, the Republican Party still holds considerable support for Ukraine, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio among them. If he aligns with their views, Trump may be hesitant to start his presidency by appearing weak through territorial concessions to Putin.
2. Israel’s Threats of Annexation Could Prolong Hostilities
In addressing Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Trump has conveyed to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s negotiators that he backs Netanyahu’s military plans but wants to see a resolution before his inauguration on January 20, 2025.
While Netanyahu might be more inclined to cooperate with Trump than with Biden, he is also politically stronger now following the October 7, 2023 attacks, which have bolstered his position. Although the Israeli Defense Forces have indicated their military goals in Gaza are being met and reports suggest a potential cease-fire deal with Hezbollah as a “gift” for Trump, Netanyahu has since stated that military operations will continue regardless of any cease-fire.
Furthermore, discussions regarding the annexation of the West Bank are taking place within Netanyahu’s government. While this could appease the pro-Israel hawks in Trump’s sphere—such as Rubio, U.N. Ambassador-designate Elise Stefanik, and Israel Ambassador-designate Mike Huckabee—it may also extend hostilities and hinder a proposed Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement considered crucial for a broader peace initiative.
3. Iran Is Much Closer to Going Nuclear
Another obstacle Trump encounters relates to his promise of halting Iran's nuclear ambitions. He intends to revive his “maximum pressure” campaign through heightened sanctions and curbed oil sales. Iran's new moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has acknowledged an obligation to engage with the U.S. on regional matters.
Yet Tehran is increasingly motivated to pursue nuclear capabilities, especially after being significantly undermined by Israel, which has eliminated key leaders among its proxies, including those in Hezbollah and Hamas. A senior Iranian commander hinted at a potential reassessment of Iran’s nuclear stance following these Israeli strikes. Enhancements in Iran’s nuclear capacity have advanced since 2018 when Trump invalidated the nuclear agreement negotiated by Barack Obama.
Moreover, recent confirmations from U.S. and Israeli officials indicate that an Israeli attack last month decimated an active nuclear research facility in Iran, prompting hard-liners in Tehran to assert that such vulnerability is unacceptable. “We have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard,” said Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on November 1.
4. North Korea’s Kim Has a New Paramour: Putin
Trump can also expect difficulty negotiating disarmament with North Korea. During his first term, he built what he described as a “special friendship” with Kim Jong Un, who eagerly reciprocated in a series of letters, calling their bond “deep and special.”
However, since Trump’s departure from office, Kim has significantly advanced his nuclear and missile programs and has forged a closer military partnership with Russia, reducing his reliance on U.S. support. The June announcement of a mutual defense agreement between North Korea and Russia implies Kim is receiving essential resources like food assistance, financial aid, and oil—materials that previously would have required an agreement with the U.S.
“We are not going to be able to get the agreement we were able to get in the first Trump administration,” stated Stephen Wertheim, a foreign policy strategist at the Carnegie Endowment. “It’s going to take a lot more to pry North Korea away from the Russians.”
5. China's Xi Has Become More Hard-Line
Trump’s task of compelling China to adopt fair trade practices and ease its threats toward Taiwan will be even more arduous, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has adopted a more aggressive stance compared to four years ago. Trump will have to confront the deepening ideological alliance between Beijing and Moscow—rooted in their shared opposition to U.S. dominance—which complicates his traditionally transactional approach to foreign relations.
Although China's economy is experiencing significant slowdowns, which could make Trump’s threats of imposing new tariffs more impactful, Xi's increasing hardline approach may make him even less willing to adjust China’s fundamental trade practices, such as providing illegal subsidies or committing widespread intellectual property theft. “It didn’t work the last time, and I see no reason why it would work this time,” remarked William Reinsch, a former U.S. Commerce undersecretary now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Navigating these challenges will heavily depend on the personnel Trump appoints. Within the GOP, a struggle exists between traditional hawks advocating for military strength abroad and “restrainers” or “realists” favoring a more isolationist stance. Currently, it seems that hard-liners are filling senior positions, like Rubio at State and Waltz as national security adviser, along with former Fox News host and combat veteran Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary.
However, some counterbalancing influences may emerge within the new administration advocating for more diplomatic approaches, particularly regarding China. Trump has notably opted not to appoint well-known China hawks like Senator Tom Cotton or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who recently indicated it might be time to officially recognize Taiwan’s independence.
Trump’s close advisers include business representatives who might prioritize diplomacy over conflict; among them, Elon Musk, whose business interest in China has necessitated maintaining favorable relations. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s campaign co-chair and nominee for Commerce secretary, also has substantial business ties to China.
Some former officials who may secure significant roles—like former senior defense official Elbridge Colby—have criticized Taiwan as a security burden and imply that Trump may not be as prompt in defending the island as his predecessors. As Trump himself explained in a July interview with Bloomberg Businessweek: “Taiwan should pay us for defense. … Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”
“These people believe we can’t risk sinking the Pacific fleet for a country [Taiwan] that doesn’t want to help itself,” said one national security expert close to the Trump transition. “So China policy could end up being more dovish than people think.”
The incoming president is already signaling an openness to peace negotiations with international adversaries while initiating what can only be described as a hostile takeover of the federal government and a battle against the so-called “deep state.” As Trump stated at a Colorado rally in October, “the enemy from within” poses “a bigger enemy than China and Russia.”
“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars,” Trump declared in his victory speech on November 5. In meetings with foreign delegations at Mar-a-Lago, he expressed a desire to “end all of these conflicts,” including with Iran, despite Tehran's previous assassination plots against him, according to a diplomatic official briefed on those discussions. Notably, Trump initiated back-channel communications with Iran after the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020. Reports suggest Musk covertly engaged with Iran’s U.N. ambassador post-election to ease tensions.
Gwenda Blair, author of *The Trumps: Three Generations of Builders And A President*, argues that Trump's ambition to secure a legacy as a peacemaker is intrinsic to his persona. “He would indeed like to be the dealmaker of the ages, using that same transactional DNA that propelled his grandfather during the Gold Rush, his father [building a housing empire] in the New Deal, and his own career in real estate, casinos and reality TV,” said Blair.
She cautioned, however, that “everyone else at the table is as self-interested as he is and far less vulnerable to lies, exaggerations, and distortions. In a global landscape of shrinking American hegemony, he may run aground on demanding a bigger slice for himself than they are willing to give.”
Ultimately, the significant question is whether Trump, in his heightened eagerness to broker deals, will possess the leverage he believes he needs. Without it, he may find himself embroiled in a series of one-sided negotiations during his second presidency, resulting once again in empty-handed outcomes.
Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News
The incoming 47th president is assembling a Cabinet filled with staunch hard-liners and disruptors who, according to Trump’s detractors, could dismantle the federal government entirely. However, some officials who are familiar with him suggest that the campaigner who thrives on agitation is also reminiscent of the Trump from “The Art of the Deal” — the self-proclaimed negotiation expert who aimed to forge agreements with U.S. adversaries during his previous presidency and intends to do so again.
“I told the president very early in my tenure, ‘You’re going to be known as the peacemaker,’” noted Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump’s last national security adviser during his first term and is seen as a leading candidate for a senior position in the new administration. “I think that is still his vision.”
The challenge lies in the fact that during his first term, Trump struggled to secure successful deals with China, Iran, and North Korea. Furthermore, the global landscape has evolved over the four years since he left office, creating a much harsher international context than before—one that may prolong conflicts like those in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Here are five significant global developments that are likely to complicate Trump’s objectives this time.
1. Russia Is Escalating the War in Ukraine
Trump is already faced with the possibility of failing to deliver on a major campaign promise: ending the war in Ukraine. He has repeatedly claimed he could accomplish this “before I even become president.” This past summer, he even suggested he could resolve the issue “in 24 hours,” presumably by negotiating a cease-fire and a deal wherein Ukraine relinquishes some territory and foregoes future NATO membership in exchange for peace.
However, reaching such an agreement requires relative stability along the front lines. After the election, Trump reportedly cautioned Vladimir Putin against escalating the ongoing invasion. Instead, Putin has amassed forces in Ukraine’s southeast, signaling preparations for a new offensive, and has launched significant missile attacks in recent days.
Ukraine is facing troop shortages. This week, President Joe Biden aimed to bolster Kyiv's position before leaving office by providing long-range missiles, which Ukraine used to strike back at Russia, prompting renewed nuclear threats from Putin. Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Michael Waltz, remarked: "This is another step up the escalation ladder, and no one knows where this is going.”
While this scenario could position Trump as a peacekeeper, as he often warned of “World War III” being the greatest threat to America, both Putin and Ukraine currently seem resistant to compromise. Additionally, the Republican Party still holds considerable support for Ukraine, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio among them. If he aligns with their views, Trump may be hesitant to start his presidency by appearing weak through territorial concessions to Putin.
2. Israel’s Threats of Annexation Could Prolong Hostilities
In addressing Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Trump has conveyed to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s negotiators that he backs Netanyahu’s military plans but wants to see a resolution before his inauguration on January 20, 2025.
While Netanyahu might be more inclined to cooperate with Trump than with Biden, he is also politically stronger now following the October 7, 2023 attacks, which have bolstered his position. Although the Israeli Defense Forces have indicated their military goals in Gaza are being met and reports suggest a potential cease-fire deal with Hezbollah as a “gift” for Trump, Netanyahu has since stated that military operations will continue regardless of any cease-fire.
Furthermore, discussions regarding the annexation of the West Bank are taking place within Netanyahu’s government. While this could appease the pro-Israel hawks in Trump’s sphere—such as Rubio, U.N. Ambassador-designate Elise Stefanik, and Israel Ambassador-designate Mike Huckabee—it may also extend hostilities and hinder a proposed Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement considered crucial for a broader peace initiative.
3. Iran Is Much Closer to Going Nuclear
Another obstacle Trump encounters relates to his promise of halting Iran's nuclear ambitions. He intends to revive his “maximum pressure” campaign through heightened sanctions and curbed oil sales. Iran's new moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has acknowledged an obligation to engage with the U.S. on regional matters.
Yet Tehran is increasingly motivated to pursue nuclear capabilities, especially after being significantly undermined by Israel, which has eliminated key leaders among its proxies, including those in Hezbollah and Hamas. A senior Iranian commander hinted at a potential reassessment of Iran’s nuclear stance following these Israeli strikes. Enhancements in Iran’s nuclear capacity have advanced since 2018 when Trump invalidated the nuclear agreement negotiated by Barack Obama.
Moreover, recent confirmations from U.S. and Israeli officials indicate that an Israeli attack last month decimated an active nuclear research facility in Iran, prompting hard-liners in Tehran to assert that such vulnerability is unacceptable. “We have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard,” said Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on November 1.
4. North Korea’s Kim Has a New Paramour: Putin
Trump can also expect difficulty negotiating disarmament with North Korea. During his first term, he built what he described as a “special friendship” with Kim Jong Un, who eagerly reciprocated in a series of letters, calling their bond “deep and special.”
However, since Trump’s departure from office, Kim has significantly advanced his nuclear and missile programs and has forged a closer military partnership with Russia, reducing his reliance on U.S. support. The June announcement of a mutual defense agreement between North Korea and Russia implies Kim is receiving essential resources like food assistance, financial aid, and oil—materials that previously would have required an agreement with the U.S.
“We are not going to be able to get the agreement we were able to get in the first Trump administration,” stated Stephen Wertheim, a foreign policy strategist at the Carnegie Endowment. “It’s going to take a lot more to pry North Korea away from the Russians.”
5. China's Xi Has Become More Hard-Line
Trump’s task of compelling China to adopt fair trade practices and ease its threats toward Taiwan will be even more arduous, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has adopted a more aggressive stance compared to four years ago. Trump will have to confront the deepening ideological alliance between Beijing and Moscow—rooted in their shared opposition to U.S. dominance—which complicates his traditionally transactional approach to foreign relations.
Although China's economy is experiencing significant slowdowns, which could make Trump’s threats of imposing new tariffs more impactful, Xi's increasing hardline approach may make him even less willing to adjust China’s fundamental trade practices, such as providing illegal subsidies or committing widespread intellectual property theft. “It didn’t work the last time, and I see no reason why it would work this time,” remarked William Reinsch, a former U.S. Commerce undersecretary now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Navigating these challenges will heavily depend on the personnel Trump appoints. Within the GOP, a struggle exists between traditional hawks advocating for military strength abroad and “restrainers” or “realists” favoring a more isolationist stance. Currently, it seems that hard-liners are filling senior positions, like Rubio at State and Waltz as national security adviser, along with former Fox News host and combat veteran Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary.
However, some counterbalancing influences may emerge within the new administration advocating for more diplomatic approaches, particularly regarding China. Trump has notably opted not to appoint well-known China hawks like Senator Tom Cotton or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who recently indicated it might be time to officially recognize Taiwan’s independence.
Trump’s close advisers include business representatives who might prioritize diplomacy over conflict; among them, Elon Musk, whose business interest in China has necessitated maintaining favorable relations. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s campaign co-chair and nominee for Commerce secretary, also has substantial business ties to China.
Some former officials who may secure significant roles—like former senior defense official Elbridge Colby—have criticized Taiwan as a security burden and imply that Trump may not be as prompt in defending the island as his predecessors. As Trump himself explained in a July interview with Bloomberg Businessweek: “Taiwan should pay us for defense. … Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”
“These people believe we can’t risk sinking the Pacific fleet for a country [Taiwan] that doesn’t want to help itself,” said one national security expert close to the Trump transition. “So China policy could end up being more dovish than people think.”
The incoming president is already signaling an openness to peace negotiations with international adversaries while initiating what can only be described as a hostile takeover of the federal government and a battle against the so-called “deep state.” As Trump stated at a Colorado rally in October, “the enemy from within” poses “a bigger enemy than China and Russia.”
“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars,” Trump declared in his victory speech on November 5. In meetings with foreign delegations at Mar-a-Lago, he expressed a desire to “end all of these conflicts,” including with Iran, despite Tehran's previous assassination plots against him, according to a diplomatic official briefed on those discussions. Notably, Trump initiated back-channel communications with Iran after the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020. Reports suggest Musk covertly engaged with Iran’s U.N. ambassador post-election to ease tensions.
Gwenda Blair, author of *The Trumps: Three Generations of Builders And A President*, argues that Trump's ambition to secure a legacy as a peacemaker is intrinsic to his persona. “He would indeed like to be the dealmaker of the ages, using that same transactional DNA that propelled his grandfather during the Gold Rush, his father [building a housing empire] in the New Deal, and his own career in real estate, casinos and reality TV,” said Blair.
She cautioned, however, that “everyone else at the table is as self-interested as he is and far less vulnerable to lies, exaggerations, and distortions. In a global landscape of shrinking American hegemony, he may run aground on demanding a bigger slice for himself than they are willing to give.”
Ultimately, the significant question is whether Trump, in his heightened eagerness to broker deals, will possess the leverage he believes he needs. Without it, he may find himself embroiled in a series of one-sided negotiations during his second presidency, resulting once again in empty-handed outcomes.
Sanya Singh contributed to this report for TROIB News
