Survey Shows: Canadians Hold Negative Views on Trump, Feel Mistrust Towards US
A recent PMG/Focaldata poll reveals that Trump significantly influences Monday's election, benefiting Mark Carney and the Liberals as Canadians grow increasingly disenchanted with the United States.
TroibNews 
Three quarters of Canadians have an unfavorable view of President Donald Trump, and this sentiment is likely to impact the Conservative Party's fortunes in Canada’s upcoming election, according to a PMG/Focaldata poll of Canadian voters.
Approximately 40% of voters indicated to Focaldata, a U.K. pollster, that Trump is a significant concern in the election, trailing only the cost of living as a top issue.
Since Trump returned to the White House and Justin Trudeau stepped down as Prime Minister, the Conservative Party, now led by populist Pierre Poilievre, has seen a dramatic decline in support, falling from a 25-point lead in polls to trailing in most surveys, including the PMG/Focaldata poll.
The Canadian election has turned into a referendum on Trump's political influence beyond U.S. borders. Following backlash against his rhetoric and trade policies, around half of Canadians now perceive the U.S. as a hostile power, marking a significant shift among moderate and Liberal-leaning citizens.
In a recent interview with Time magazine, Trump reiterated his interest in annexing Canada: “The only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.”
Focaldata, which surveyed 2,826 respondents online between April 18 and April 23, determined Trump's net favorability among Canadians sits at minus 61, a “deeply negative standing” that the pollster warns may influence voters against the Conservatives.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has presented himself as the candidate most qualified to defend Canada, citing his experience leading the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Voters appear to align with this view, indicating that Carney, rather than Poilievre, is better suited to manage Canada's relationship with Trump and the U.S.
“President Trump and I … we share some experiences,” Carney stated after being sworn in last month. “I have been in the private sector. I have worked in the real estate sector. I have done large transactions. I have worked with him during his first presidency at the G20, at the G7.”
As Election Day approaches, it's uncertain whether Carney has solidified his lead.
However, there are indicators that traditional polling methods might be underestimating Conservative support. When asked who they believe their local communities would vote for, Conservatives performed slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata's chief research officer, mentioned that similar methodologies have proven accurate in previous elections, such as Brexit and the Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam explained in an email to PMG. He noted the difficulty in gauging the significance of this finding, as it is the first time Focaldata has used this question in Canada.
In the tight race, Focaldata finds the Liberals slightly ahead, with support at 40.5% compared to the Conservatives at 37.5%. In crucial Ontario, Liberals hold a 9-point advantage with 46% to the Conservatives’ 37%. The Liberals also lead in Quebec, surpassing both the Bloc Québécois and Conservatives. Conversely, Conservatives dominate every province west of Ontario, leading by 8 points in British Columbia.
Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party trails nationally at 10.7%, with only 58% of its support considered solid compared to 71% of Conservative voters and 68% of Liberals.
Carney's strategy seems to resonate as he has effectively communicated that he is not Justin Trudeau, which has helped him gain traction. A plurality of voters, 46%, believe that he “mostly represents something different from Justin Trudeau's leadership,” indicating they will make their choice based on his own record rather than Trudeau's unpopular tenure.
Focaldata’s survey, aligning with most national polling, shows the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives. An analysis of favorability ratings reveals this dynamic: Carney possesses a net positive 10-point favorability rating, while Poilievre demonstrates a net unfavorable rating of 7 points.
Carney has garnered popularity among voters of both parties, as Liberals tend to rate him more favorably than Conservatives view Poilievre. Additionally, Conservatives show less aversion to Carney than Liberals do toward Poilievre, contributing to the favorability gap.
Conversely, Trump remains unpopular across the board, with the poll suggesting that three out of five Conservatives have an unfavorable view of him.
While both parties acknowledge inflation as a significant concern, their voters exhibit differing priorities in other issues. After assuming leadership of the Conservative Party in 2022, Poilievre traveled the country emphasizing a message that “Canada is broken,” which resonated initially until Trump's presidency ignited a surge of national pride.
The survey shows Conservatives retaining a marginal lead among voters concerned about the cost of living, yet Carney seems to command the narrative surrounding U.S.-Canada relations.
Though both parties prioritize inflation and cost of living issues, a 52% majority of Liberal voters identified Trump and U.S.-Canada relations as top concerns, nearly double the 27% of Conservative voters who echoed this sentiment.
Liberals listed healthcare as their third most pressing issue, while Conservatives ranked it fourth, following housing affordability.
The PMG/Focaldata poll indicates that Conservatives are more anxious than Liberals about immigration, refugee policies, and public safety—topics prominently featured in Poilievre’s campaign.
Not every voter aligns perfectly with their party on each issue, revealing each leader's strengths and weaknesses. When it comes to managing relations with Trump and the U.S., for instance, a notable portion of Conservatives—one in eight—believe that Carney and the Liberals would handle it better, while an additional one in six is undecided. Conversely, about 8% of Liberals believe Poilievre would be superior in fostering job growth and managing the economy.
Notably, a significant number of Canadians see Trump as a factor influencing their voting decisions. Nearly half, 45%, reported that Trump’s actions have affected their vote choice “moderately” or “a great deal,” reflecting a stark partisan divide.
The survey revealed that liberal voters were more inclined than Conservatives to let Trump influence their decision. Specifically, 53% of Liberal voters reported that Trump’s actions have significantly swayed their preferences, compared to just 25% of Conservative voters.
This divide extends to broader perceptions of the U.S., with nearly two-thirds of Liberals viewing it as “enemy or hostile” or “generally unfriendly, but not an enemy.” In contrast, only 19% of Liberals see the U.S. as an ally or generally friendly. On the other hand, 40% of Conservatives regard the U.S. as an ally or generally friendly, while 34% believe the opposite.
Overall, about half of Canadians, 49%, now characterize the U.S. as “unfriendly” or “an enemy,” which is a more negative perception than even of China, a nation with which Canada has had strained diplomatic ties.
Mathilde Moreau for TROIB News
Approximately 40% of voters indicated to Focaldata, a U.K. pollster, that Trump is a significant concern in the election, trailing only the cost of living as a top issue.
Since Trump returned to the White House and Justin Trudeau stepped down as Prime Minister, the Conservative Party, now led by populist Pierre Poilievre, has seen a dramatic decline in support, falling from a 25-point lead in polls to trailing in most surveys, including the PMG/Focaldata poll.
The Canadian election has turned into a referendum on Trump's political influence beyond U.S. borders. Following backlash against his rhetoric and trade policies, around half of Canadians now perceive the U.S. as a hostile power, marking a significant shift among moderate and Liberal-leaning citizens.
In a recent interview with Time magazine, Trump reiterated his interest in annexing Canada: “The only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.”
Focaldata, which surveyed 2,826 respondents online between April 18 and April 23, determined Trump's net favorability among Canadians sits at minus 61, a “deeply negative standing” that the pollster warns may influence voters against the Conservatives.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has presented himself as the candidate most qualified to defend Canada, citing his experience leading the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Voters appear to align with this view, indicating that Carney, rather than Poilievre, is better suited to manage Canada's relationship with Trump and the U.S.
“President Trump and I … we share some experiences,” Carney stated after being sworn in last month. “I have been in the private sector. I have worked in the real estate sector. I have done large transactions. I have worked with him during his first presidency at the G20, at the G7.”
As Election Day approaches, it's uncertain whether Carney has solidified his lead.
However, there are indicators that traditional polling methods might be underestimating Conservative support. When asked who they believe their local communities would vote for, Conservatives performed slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata's chief research officer, mentioned that similar methodologies have proven accurate in previous elections, such as Brexit and the Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam explained in an email to PMG. He noted the difficulty in gauging the significance of this finding, as it is the first time Focaldata has used this question in Canada.
In the tight race, Focaldata finds the Liberals slightly ahead, with support at 40.5% compared to the Conservatives at 37.5%. In crucial Ontario, Liberals hold a 9-point advantage with 46% to the Conservatives’ 37%. The Liberals also lead in Quebec, surpassing both the Bloc Québécois and Conservatives. Conversely, Conservatives dominate every province west of Ontario, leading by 8 points in British Columbia.
Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party trails nationally at 10.7%, with only 58% of its support considered solid compared to 71% of Conservative voters and 68% of Liberals.
Carney's strategy seems to resonate as he has effectively communicated that he is not Justin Trudeau, which has helped him gain traction. A plurality of voters, 46%, believe that he “mostly represents something different from Justin Trudeau's leadership,” indicating they will make their choice based on his own record rather than Trudeau's unpopular tenure.
Focaldata’s survey, aligning with most national polling, shows the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives. An analysis of favorability ratings reveals this dynamic: Carney possesses a net positive 10-point favorability rating, while Poilievre demonstrates a net unfavorable rating of 7 points.
Carney has garnered popularity among voters of both parties, as Liberals tend to rate him more favorably than Conservatives view Poilievre. Additionally, Conservatives show less aversion to Carney than Liberals do toward Poilievre, contributing to the favorability gap.
Conversely, Trump remains unpopular across the board, with the poll suggesting that three out of five Conservatives have an unfavorable view of him.
While both parties acknowledge inflation as a significant concern, their voters exhibit differing priorities in other issues. After assuming leadership of the Conservative Party in 2022, Poilievre traveled the country emphasizing a message that “Canada is broken,” which resonated initially until Trump's presidency ignited a surge of national pride.
The survey shows Conservatives retaining a marginal lead among voters concerned about the cost of living, yet Carney seems to command the narrative surrounding U.S.-Canada relations.
Though both parties prioritize inflation and cost of living issues, a 52% majority of Liberal voters identified Trump and U.S.-Canada relations as top concerns, nearly double the 27% of Conservative voters who echoed this sentiment.
Liberals listed healthcare as their third most pressing issue, while Conservatives ranked it fourth, following housing affordability.
The PMG/Focaldata poll indicates that Conservatives are more anxious than Liberals about immigration, refugee policies, and public safety—topics prominently featured in Poilievre’s campaign.
Not every voter aligns perfectly with their party on each issue, revealing each leader's strengths and weaknesses. When it comes to managing relations with Trump and the U.S., for instance, a notable portion of Conservatives—one in eight—believe that Carney and the Liberals would handle it better, while an additional one in six is undecided. Conversely, about 8% of Liberals believe Poilievre would be superior in fostering job growth and managing the economy.
Notably, a significant number of Canadians see Trump as a factor influencing their voting decisions. Nearly half, 45%, reported that Trump’s actions have affected their vote choice “moderately” or “a great deal,” reflecting a stark partisan divide.
The survey revealed that liberal voters were more inclined than Conservatives to let Trump influence their decision. Specifically, 53% of Liberal voters reported that Trump’s actions have significantly swayed their preferences, compared to just 25% of Conservative voters.
This divide extends to broader perceptions of the U.S., with nearly two-thirds of Liberals viewing it as “enemy or hostile” or “generally unfriendly, but not an enemy.” In contrast, only 19% of Liberals see the U.S. as an ally or generally friendly. On the other hand, 40% of Conservatives regard the U.S. as an ally or generally friendly, while 34% believe the opposite.
Overall, about half of Canadians, 49%, now characterize the U.S. as “unfriendly” or “an enemy,” which is a more negative perception than even of China, a nation with which Canada has had strained diplomatic ties.
Mathilde Moreau for TROIB News
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