Intel Community Warns that Russia Has 'Seized the Upper Hand' in Ukraine War
An annual intelligence assessment of global threats raises doubts about the readiness of both countries to swiftly resolve the conflict.
TroibNews 
U.S. intelligence agencies issued a warning on Tuesday about Ukraine's increasingly challenging battlefield situation against Russia in their annual report.
The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence alongside testimony from top officials at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, indicates that Moscow has "seized the upper hand" in the conflict over the past year and "is on a path to accrue greater leverage" to negotiate favorable terms with Ukraine and Western nations.
Despite significant losses on the battlefield, intelligence agencies have observed a continued resilience in the Russian military, which is replenishing its personnel and enhancing its industrial capacity.
"Even though Russian President [Vladimir] Putin will be unable to achieve the total victory he envisioned when initiating the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia retains momentum as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages," the report states. "This grinding war of attrition will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow."
This analysis coincides with President Donald Trump's call for a peace agreement to end the war. He has campaigned on negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine within the first 24 hours of his presidency. However, U.S.-Ukraine relations have reached a notably turbulent phase since Russia's invasion in 2022. Trump's initiative is raising concerns among Ukraine advocates in the U.S. and Europe, who fear that the terms may be too favorable to Russia.
The assessment also casts doubt on both Russia's and Ukraine's readiness for a deal. While Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are "interested in continuing discussions" to resolve the conflict, the report concludes that both leaders "probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement."
"Regardless of how and when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s current geopolitical, economic, military, and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests," the intelligence report asserts.
Additionally, the report prominently addresses threats from drug cartels, placing them at the top of the list along with terrorist and transnational criminal organizations.
Senate Intelligence Chair Tom Cotton remarked that this is the first time the report prioritizes illicit drug groups over other significant threats, reflecting the Trump administration's emphasis on border security and reducing undocumented immigration.
In her opening remarks at the Senate hearing on worldwide threats, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that non-state criminal groups and terrorists represent "what most immediately and directly threatens the United States and the well-being of the American people."
The report highlights the trafficking of fentanyl and other illicit drugs by transnational criminal organizations, noting that some groups are involved in "other illegal activities that challenge U.S. security, such as human trafficking, cyber operations, money laundering, and inciting violence."
In assessing threats, the report identifies Beijing as "the most comprehensive and robust military threat" to the U.S.
Intelligence agencies predict that China is likely to increase coercive actions against Taiwan, with "steady but uneven" progress expected in developing military capabilities for a potential invasion of the self-governing island and deterring U.S. intervention.
The report outlines Beijing's military advancements, including the development of long-range missiles, the expansion of its navy, and modernization of its ground forces. According to intelligence assessments, China “remains intent” on expanding and overhauling its nuclear arsenal.
Moreover, the report suggests that Beijing may have developed a “multifaceted, national-level strategy” aimed at surpassing the U.S. as the global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.
The intelligence community also reaffirmed its assessment that Iran is not currently constructing a nuclear weapon, but notes that "pressure has probably built on [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] to do so."
"In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus," the report states.
Iran is expected to leverage its missile capabilities and nuclear program to strengthen its influence in the Middle East while continuing to support militant groups opposing Israel and the U.S. Nonetheless, the report highlights that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the military decline of Hezbollah have prompted leaders in Tehran to reassess Iran’s overall strategy.
Aarav Patel for TROIB News
The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence alongside testimony from top officials at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, indicates that Moscow has "seized the upper hand" in the conflict over the past year and "is on a path to accrue greater leverage" to negotiate favorable terms with Ukraine and Western nations.
Despite significant losses on the battlefield, intelligence agencies have observed a continued resilience in the Russian military, which is replenishing its personnel and enhancing its industrial capacity.
"Even though Russian President [Vladimir] Putin will be unable to achieve the total victory he envisioned when initiating the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia retains momentum as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages," the report states. "This grinding war of attrition will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow."
This analysis coincides with President Donald Trump's call for a peace agreement to end the war. He has campaigned on negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine within the first 24 hours of his presidency. However, U.S.-Ukraine relations have reached a notably turbulent phase since Russia's invasion in 2022. Trump's initiative is raising concerns among Ukraine advocates in the U.S. and Europe, who fear that the terms may be too favorable to Russia.
The assessment also casts doubt on both Russia's and Ukraine's readiness for a deal. While Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are "interested in continuing discussions" to resolve the conflict, the report concludes that both leaders "probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement."
"Regardless of how and when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s current geopolitical, economic, military, and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests," the intelligence report asserts.
Additionally, the report prominently addresses threats from drug cartels, placing them at the top of the list along with terrorist and transnational criminal organizations.
Senate Intelligence Chair Tom Cotton remarked that this is the first time the report prioritizes illicit drug groups over other significant threats, reflecting the Trump administration's emphasis on border security and reducing undocumented immigration.
In her opening remarks at the Senate hearing on worldwide threats, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that non-state criminal groups and terrorists represent "what most immediately and directly threatens the United States and the well-being of the American people."
The report highlights the trafficking of fentanyl and other illicit drugs by transnational criminal organizations, noting that some groups are involved in "other illegal activities that challenge U.S. security, such as human trafficking, cyber operations, money laundering, and inciting violence."
In assessing threats, the report identifies Beijing as "the most comprehensive and robust military threat" to the U.S.
Intelligence agencies predict that China is likely to increase coercive actions against Taiwan, with "steady but uneven" progress expected in developing military capabilities for a potential invasion of the self-governing island and deterring U.S. intervention.
The report outlines Beijing's military advancements, including the development of long-range missiles, the expansion of its navy, and modernization of its ground forces. According to intelligence assessments, China “remains intent” on expanding and overhauling its nuclear arsenal.
Moreover, the report suggests that Beijing may have developed a “multifaceted, national-level strategy” aimed at surpassing the U.S. as the global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.
The intelligence community also reaffirmed its assessment that Iran is not currently constructing a nuclear weapon, but notes that "pressure has probably built on [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] to do so."
"In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus," the report states.
Iran is expected to leverage its missile capabilities and nuclear program to strengthen its influence in the Middle East while continuing to support militant groups opposing Israel and the U.S. Nonetheless, the report highlights that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the military decline of Hezbollah have prompted leaders in Tehran to reassess Iran’s overall strategy.
Aarav Patel for TROIB News
