GOP drops $1M on Manchin as Justice preps run

The GOP push to knock out Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is on — 18 months before Election Day.

Republican group One Nation, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is unloading more than $1 million on a campaign hitting Manchin for supporting Democrats' marquee party-line bill last year, according to details shared with POLITICO. Simultaneously, a strategist close to GOP Gov. Jim Justice said that the governor has made up his mind and will likely launch his Senate campaign before the end of the month.

Those two events will quickly animate the West Virginia race, which is key to the GOP’s path back to the upper chamber majority. Republicans are betting that Manchin’s deal with President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on climate, health care and taxes will damage his prospects in his red state, while Justice’s recruitment boosts their chances of picking up the seat.

Manchin is bristling on a near-daily basis at Biden’s implementation of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act and keeps declining to support the president's reelection. But Republicans are making clear that last year's multibillion-dollar bill will be the centerpiece of their campaign to defeat him.

Splicing in clips of Manchin close to Biden during the law’s signing ceremony, the new ad push claims that “100,000 West Virginia jobs are at risk thanks to Sen. Joe Manchin falling in line with D.C. liberals to pass the Inflation Reduction Act.” And One Nation is signaling more is to come.

“The so-called ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will hurt Americans’ quality of life in a lot of ways, and One Nation will continue to advocate against bad policies,” said the group's president and CEO Steven Law.

Manchin has not yet announced his own reelection plans, saying he won’t decide on his future until the end of the year. In the meantime, he’s fighting openly with the Biden administration over its implementation of the law he helped write, dinging a missed deadline on stricter sourcing requirements for electric vehicles. On Tuesday he called new EPA emission standards “dangerous.”

He's also acknowledged Republicans were likely to come after him for supporting the party-line bill. Manchin cut a slimmed-down deal with Schumer last summer after rejecting a more sweeping plan known as "Build Back Better" in 2021.

“I’m fighting the administration for trying to implement a piece of legislation we didn’t pass,” Manchin said in an interview, alleging that Biden's team is stretching the intent of the smaller bill that passed to a more progressive extent. “The intent of the bill was for energy security. And we were not energy secure … Just implement the bill that was passed, not the bill you think you wanted.”

Manchin has faced tough races before and should never be underestimated, even in a state Biden lost by nearly 40 points. While 2024 could be even more challenging, particularly if Justice gets in, Manchin does have a couple cards up his sleeve: He has nearly $10 million in his campaign account and the support of national Democrats if he runs.

“West Virginians know Joe Manchin’s work has decreased the deficit and made prescription drugs more affordable. One Nation should save their cash for a bloody primary that will pit Club for Growth’s carpetbagger against Mitch McConnell’s ethically challenged pick,” said Sarah Guggenheimer, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Polls show Manchin with an early lead against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) in a hypothetical matchup, but with work to do against Justice. And Justice is close enough to jumping in that he’s looking at several dates for his launch, including April 27, as well as several other days.

“I do think the governor made a decision,” the Republican strategist close to Justice said, speaking candidly on the condition of anonymity. “It’s only a matter of time.”

However, Republicans in the state and in D.C. cautioned that Justice is a seat-of-his-pants politician, and a campaign kickoff isn’t final until the moment the governor decides. Not to mention that plenty can change in the GOP primary over the next year; the state's attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, lost to Manchin in 2018 but decided to run for governor next year after flirting with another Senate bid.