Canada's Response to Fears of Trump 2.0: "Everything's Fine."

Trudeau and his senior ministers assert that they are well-prepared for the upcoming White House transition.

Canada's Response to Fears of Trump 2.0: "Everything's Fine."
OTTAWA — As Donald Trump prepares for a potential return to the White House, Canada is bracing for challenges, including the threat of a 20 percent tariff, an increase in asylum seekers, and ongoing criticism regarding its defense spending.

In response to Trump's decisive victory, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has assured that “Everything is fine.”

To address concerns, Trudeau has rallied a dedicated team of top ministers and senior aides who have established strong connections with their U.S. counterparts, possibly closer than Trudeau’s relationship with Trump himself.

“They’re going to have to think through very carefully who it is that had the best personal relationship — forget professional,” remarked former U.S. Ambassador Bruce Heyman last week. “You have to develop these relationships pretty quickly, and you’re gonna have to also figure out — because Donald Trump is so transactional — what is it you give for what it is you want to get. That’s how he thinks,” he added.

Throughout the week following the election, Trudeau and his advisers worked diligently to reassure businesses, particularly in Canada’s oil sector, as well as labor leaders and provincial premiers.

“A lot of Canadians have been anxious this week. A lot of Canadians were anxious throughout the night, and I want to say with utter sincerity and conviction to Canadians that Canada will be absolutely fine,” Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters the morning after Trump's victory.

Trudeau’s government is attempting to position the Liberal Party as the most capable of managing relations with Trump, having navigated similar issues in the past.

The outcome of the U.S. election has momentarily quelled calls within the Liberal Party for the resignation of the unpopular incumbent, aiming instead for the party to retain its leadership for the upcoming election. However, Trudeau's government faces the same uphill battle that hindered Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign: regaining voter support amid continuing inflation.

Trudeau’s rapport with Trump is notably complex. In 2019, he was caught on a hot mic making jokes about the president, prompting Trump to label Trudeau “two-faced.” Following that, in 2022, Trump referred to Trudeau as a “far-left lunatic” and, earlier this year, reiterated a debunked assertion that Trudeau may be Fidel Castro’s son.

While Trump was out of office, Trudeau criticized the MAGA movement and even held it partly responsible for diminishing support for Ukraine.

In light of Trump's return, Freeland has emphasized Canada's previous experiences.

In his early presidency, Trump terminated the North American Free Trade Agreement, denouncing it as “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere.” He also instituted tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel. Freeland collaborated with then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to renegotiate the agreement, maintaining a close relationship with him — they met over the summer and stayed in contact during Election Day, Freeland revealed.

Recently, they have discovered mutual interests in addressing Chinese imports, particularly critical minerals, which Canada possesses abundantly and views as leverage to bolster North American defense and energy sectors.

“I do take everything that President Trump says very seriously,” Freeland stated. “That’s why we’ve been very conscientious, very systematic about maintaining our relationship.”

Trudeau has revitalized a Cabinet committee specifically focused on the Canada-U.S. relationship, which had last convened during Trump’s first term. The new committee is staffed with senior ministers whose responsibilities heavily depend on American ties.

Some ministers have been actively engaging with local and state leaders in the U.S. for months, aiming to be strategically positioned to advocate for Canada’s interests in Congress.

“Let’s be calm,” asserted Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, one of the ministers coordinating a "Team Canada" engagement strategy for months. As of August, they had visited 33 states and met with 42 governors.

Champagne reassured Canadians to “take a deep breath.” He expressed confidence that their efforts have been fruitful, stating, “They understand how strategically important we are in critical minerals, in semiconductors, in the energy sector. We’ll make the case for Canada. We know the folks, they’re already texting us.”

Though he refrained from naming specific contacts, he insisted they were in Trump’s inner circle.

Trudeau’s senior ministers have spent the week emphasizing their connections with former Trump administration officials. Meanwhile, efforts were made to establish communication between Trudeau and the president-elect.

While Canada traditionally ranks as a top call for newly elected presidents, it appears to have fallen behind India in this instance.

Trudeau and Trump eventually connected on Wednesday around 7 p.m., after leaders from Italy, Ukraine, Hungary, and the United Kingdom had already publicly announced their calls.

A senior official familiar with the conversation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, described the discussion as positive. “We had a great relationship and got a lot done together,” Trump reportedly stated to Trudeau.

Trudeau likened Trump’s win to his father Pierre Trudeau’s comeback victory after an electoral defeat, a sentiment Trump appreciated, referring to the former Prime Minister as “a fantastic guy,” according to the official.

The two leaders discussed trade, supply chains, North American security, and the fentanyl crisis, which impacts both Canada and the U.S. due to substances trafficked from China.

Unlike 2016, when Ottawa was caught unprepared by Trump’s election, Trudeau’s government believes it now holds more leverage.

“We’ve moved from just being the friendly neighbor of the north to being a strategic partner, and they understand,” Champagne asserted.

Canada remains the largest export market for the U.S., with nearly C$600 billion in goods traded last year, surpassing China's, Japan's, the U.K.'s, and France's combined exports, Freeland noted on Friday.

The Liberal government seeks collaboration with the Trump administration on security, supply chain resilience, and growth, but Trudeau’s Cabinet remains firm on prioritizing domestic interests.

“Canada is independent from the United States and we adopt our own laws and regulations,” emphasized Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault during a press conference this week. “We’re not a carbon copy of the United States, and we won’t be.”

At the core of its self-interest is Canada’s “unwavering and unequivocal” support for Ukraine, which has a substantial diaspora in Canada. Trump has vowed to put an end to Russia's invasion of Ukraine but has yet to clarify how he intends to do so.

In response to Trump’s victory, Trudeau and his Cabinet have ramped up communication with their Ukrainian counterparts and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who recently stated that Trump is “right” regarding the necessity for certain NATO members to increase their defense spending.

Moreover, a senior Trudeau minister signaled a rhetorical shift facing inevitable demands for increased defense expenditure.

In a recent interview with CBC News, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly asserted that Canada would meet its NATO spending goal, describing herself as "hawkish" on the issue — a significant shift for a government that rarely uses such terminology.

Trudeau’s administration aims to project an image of resilience.

“In my experience, President Trump respects strength, and he respects people and countries who are strong and clear in defending their countries — in defending their national interest,” Freeland stated on Friday in Parliament. “That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s what I will continue to do.”

Lucas Dupont for TROIB News