'World’s most accurate economist' forecasts the result of the US election
According to economist Christophe Barraud, Republican Donald Trump is likely to declare a decisive victory. Read Full Article at RT.com.
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**Trump Will “Most Probably” Win, According to Christophe Barraud**
Economist Christophe Barraud, recognized by Bloomberg as the leading forecaster of the American economy, has stated that Republican candidate Donald Trump will “most probably” secure victory in the upcoming US presidential election next month.
As the election approaches—just one week away—Democratic candidate and current vice president Kamala Harris holds a slim lead over Trump of less than one percentage point, as reported by the New York Times, which also notes that the race is tightening and key battleground states remain “extraordinarily tight.”
In a post on X on Monday, Barraud expressed, “Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: Trump victory; GOP clean sweep.”
Barraud is the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities and has been named the Top Forecaster of the US Economy by Bloomberg almost every year since 2012, with only one exception.
In an interview with Business Insider earlier this week, he outlined various potential scenarios for the election results. He mentioned that a Trump win accompanied by a Republican sweep and a majority in the Senate would allow the new president to implement tax cuts for corporations and households, as well as prioritize domestic over foreign issues. This scenario would likely result in a short-term positive impact on the US economy, potentially boosting GDP between 2.1% and 2.3% by 2025.
Another scenario presented by Barraud includes a Trump victory coupled with a divided Congress. He indicated that this outcome would restrict Trump’s ability to enact tax cuts, compelling him to redirect focus towards foreign policy through measures such as trade restrictions and tariffs, which could hamper global economic growth and slow the US economy in the long term.
Should Harris secure a victory in tandem with a divided Congress, Barraud noted that there would be minimal changes to economic policies.
Earlier, Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the "Nostradamus" of US elections for his accuracy in predicting nine out of the last ten presidential outcomes since 1984, forecasted that Harris will win the vote on November 5.
Anna Muller for TROIB News
Economist Christophe Barraud, recognized by Bloomberg as the leading forecaster of the American economy, has stated that Republican candidate Donald Trump will “most probably” secure victory in the upcoming US presidential election next month.
As the election approaches—just one week away—Democratic candidate and current vice president Kamala Harris holds a slim lead over Trump of less than one percentage point, as reported by the New York Times, which also notes that the race is tightening and key battleground states remain “extraordinarily tight.”
In a post on X on Monday, Barraud expressed, “Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: Trump victory; GOP clean sweep.”
Barraud is the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities and has been named the Top Forecaster of the US Economy by Bloomberg almost every year since 2012, with only one exception.
In an interview with Business Insider earlier this week, he outlined various potential scenarios for the election results. He mentioned that a Trump win accompanied by a Republican sweep and a majority in the Senate would allow the new president to implement tax cuts for corporations and households, as well as prioritize domestic over foreign issues. This scenario would likely result in a short-term positive impact on the US economy, potentially boosting GDP between 2.1% and 2.3% by 2025.
Another scenario presented by Barraud includes a Trump victory coupled with a divided Congress. He indicated that this outcome would restrict Trump’s ability to enact tax cuts, compelling him to redirect focus towards foreign policy through measures such as trade restrictions and tariffs, which could hamper global economic growth and slow the US economy in the long term.
Should Harris secure a victory in tandem with a divided Congress, Barraud noted that there would be minimal changes to economic policies.
Earlier, Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the "Nostradamus" of US elections for his accuracy in predicting nine out of the last ten presidential outcomes since 1984, forecasted that Harris will win the vote on November 5.
Anna Muller for TROIB News
