Wisconsin's Senate Contest Finalized, Establishing Key Battleground Match-ups
Wisconsin completed the lineup of key Senate battlegrounds. In November, Eric Hovde is set to challenge Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin.
The Wisconsin match-up was officially confirmed Tuesday, completing the list of top-tier Senate battlegrounds. Eric Hovde, a wealthy real estate executive backed by national Republicans, easily triumphed over two opponents to secure the GOP primary nomination to face Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
The Associated Press called his victory shortly after the polls closed, marking the conclusion of the Senate primary season for Republicans, who are eager to regain control of the Senate in 2024.
To reclaim the Senate, Republicans need to flip only two seats, and they are anticipating a likely pickup in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. This year poses significant challenges for Democrats, who must defend seats in critical races including Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
However, Democrats feel more optimistic about their prospects now that President Joe Biden is not pursuing reelection, and both parties have secured the match-ups they desire in these states.
Following a lackluster performance in the midterms, national Republicans made concerted efforts to recruit candidates—particularly affluent self-funders—and to clear the field for them. This strategy extended to Wisconsin, though Hovde was not the original candidate they sought.
Efforts were made to persuade GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher to run, but he ultimately decided to resign from Congress to join a venture capital firm instead.
With Gallagher out of the picture, Republicans approached Hovde, who had previously run for Senate in 2012. That time, he lost the Republican nomination to former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who subsequently lost to Baldwin. Hovde explored a gubernatorial run in the 2022 midterms but chose not to enter the race.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee encouraged Hovde to enter this cycle, and he has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Republicans in Washington worked diligently to ensure a clear primary path for him, allowing him to concentrate on the general election. They were relieved when other potential self-funders, Scott Mayer and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, opted not to run.
The GOP hoped Hovde would invest some personal funds into his campaign, and he did not disappoint. By late July, he had loaned his campaign $13 million. Hovde amassed his wealth in real estate and banking, co-owning and serving as CEO of a Wisconsin-based real estate development firm and also running a commercial bank.
However, beating Baldwin will be a formidable challenge, given her incumbency advantages as a senator since 2013 and her financial resources as a battleground Democrat. She is taking her reelection bid seriously, having already reported $31 million in expenditures this election cycle.
National Democrats are trying to portray Hovde as a carpetbagger from California. Although he was born and raised in Wisconsin, he has spent time on the West Coast and purchased a mansion in Laguna Beach, California. A recent TV ad from Senate Democrats’ campaign arm branded Hovde a “California banker” who was named “one of Orange County’s most influential residents” for three consecutive years.
Baldwin, a progressive Democrat, was elected to the Senate in 2012 after serving seven terms in the House. Notably, she was the first woman elected to Congress from Wisconsin and the first openly LGBTQ+ member of both the House and the Senate.
Baldwin has demonstrated particular support for Vice President Kamala Harris, even speaking at a Harris rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, last week. (Down-ballot Democrats had been preparing for months to distance themselves from Biden in hopes of achieving a successful outcome in November. They were concerned that his unpopularity could adversely affect them in the elections.)
Wisconsin, a perennial battleground, is poised to play a significant role in both the presidential and congressional contests, with Democrats aiming to flip the state legislature as well.
Both Trump and Harris will be actively campaigning in Wisconsin, a crucial element of the “Blue Wall” in the Rust Belt. In addition to the Senate race between Hovde and Baldwin, the state has a potentially competitive House race in its 3rd Congressional District, where Democrats are looking to unseat Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden.
Recent redistricting in the state has provided Democrats with renewed hope of gaining control over the state government. Governor Tony Evers is a Democrat, and last year's major state supreme court election resulted in a liberal majority. The state supreme court has mandated new legislative districts, which could give Democrats a boost as they aim to reclaim the state house and state senate, generating enthusiasm at the bottom of the ticket.
Olivia Brown contributed to this report for TROIB News