We now understand the extent of Biden's struggle in the debate
<b>Biden's plunging popularity in the surveys post-debate positions him in a deficit surpassing all but two incumbents - both of whom lost their reelection - tracing back over forty years. </b>
According to the most recent polls, President Joe Biden is facing significant challenges in the 2024 election following a debated perceived poorly by many. This leaves him in the worst electoral predicament yet as more individuals express a negative outlook on him and question his age and suitability for the presidency.
Not since the tenure of George H.W. Bush over thirty years ago has an incumbent president seen such a low approval rating at this stage in the election. Furthermore, Jimmy Carter's re-election campaign 44 years ago was the last time an incumbent trailed as significantly in polls, with the exception of President Trump, who is Biden's opponent in the current election.
The latest poll numbers intensify the pressure on Biden to make a fast comeback or bow out of the race before his party officially selects a nominee. Several recent polls, including one by The New York Times/Siena College, highlight Biden's sliding popularity post-debate, revealing a 6-point lead for Trump among likely voters.
The implications of this margin are severe considering the Republican advantage in the Electoral College, often translating to a sweeping victory for Trump.
The New York Times/Siena College survey displays Trump's increasing popularity among likely voters, jumping from a 3-point lead to a 6-point lead post-debate. While this shift is notable, it isn't overwhelming and is in line with other polls conducted after the Biden-Trump debate.
Questions about methodology notwithstanding, the polls collectively depict a grim prospect for Biden, who appears unable to close a persisting polling gap and now lags even further behind.
Fallout from Biden's debate performance led to a dwindling support chiefly among self-identified Democrats and independents. Usually, these voters would be more approachable for Biden, however, mounting challenges could hamper this.
Several factors and perspectives need to be considered to accurately gauge the implications of this shift after the Biden-Trump debate.
For some polls, like CNN's and The Wall Street Journal’s, the most recent trend comparisons date months back, implying the debate's impact may not be the only influencing factor. Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics averages still incorporate pre-debate polls.
These comprehensive polls are crucial in assessing the current electoral landscape, currently reflecting a solid lead for Trump.
In essence, even without dramatic fluctuations, these shifts are consequential. History shows that polling often swings against the candidate perceived as the debate "loser".
The Biden campaign has strenuously defended its position and expects a slowdown resulting from anticipated negative polling.
However, even considering these expected backlash, Biden's polls are worryingly poor given the existing difficulty in influencing this election.
The race has remained tight as both candidates are well-known from the 2020 election with regular small shifts. Polarization and well-established positions have made significant changes improbable.
Biden's slight lead has been overturned by Trump's recent debate performance leaving Biden in a larger predicament than most incumbents since 1980 — Carter and Trump, who both lost their reelection bids.
The Biden campaign remains optimistic about the president's standing despite new polls showing a moderate decline.
Nonetheless, Biden has fallen behind in the race — a challenging situation for a candidate that has had limited success in polling improvement, despite massive expenditure on advertising.
Beyond just a brief slump after a debate, the new polls imply Biden's situation may be more enduring.
Biden's favorability is falling while a considerable number of his own party believe he is too old for presidency again. Additionally, more voters regard Biden as a potential risk for the country in the next four years when compared to Trump.
Looking forward, the climax of the election campaign, which includes major events could provide opportunities for Biden to reverse the current trend. But frantic Democrats looking for a Biden turnaround may heed the numerous warning signs in the polls about his suitability for the job.
In an attempt to shed light on Biden's poll standings, several factors must be taken into account. From minor shifts following debates to the greater electoral race, these altering views on Biden's capabilities in his role are playing a considerable part.
Another aspect of his dire position in the polls is the perceived stagnancy in his leadership. Despite extensive campaigning and successful exposure, the supposed lack of dynamism in Biden's leadership style might have contributed to his falling popularity.
Following the debate, not only did Biden's campaign fail to display the anticipated strength and confidence, but it also showcased his struggle to articulate his achievements effectively, further straining his image.
The debate, intended to be a turning point for Biden, only amplified the doubts surrounding him. His performance left many dissatisfied, causing a subsequent drop in polls. The speculation around his fitness for the job, considering his age and perceived vulnerability, have raised questions that have not gone unnoticed in the public sentiment.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has appeared to capitalize on the perceived weaknesses of Biden. His post-debate strides are good indicators of how he has used this opportunity to emphasize his capabilities and contrast his image with Biden’s.
Despite his past controversies, Trump has been able to maintain steady popularity, significantly altering the 2024 election trajectory. With his steady lead in the polls, Trump is poised to make the most of Biden's current weak standing.
Biden’s campaign still has opportunities to regain ground, and a significant part of his strategy would need to involve a clear demonstration of his capability and readiness to take on another term. Biden’s best approach, according to some experts, is not to focus on Trump's shortcomings, but rather to give American voters reasons to believe in his leadership for four more years.
Going forward, the polling data and public opinion will continue to evolve. Even though Biden faces significant challenges now, it is potential for this to change as the campaigning progresses and voters re-evaluate their decisions based on unfolding events.
Nonetheless, the combination of current poor polling, increasingly unfavorable perceptions, and formidable opposition paints a difficult picture for Biden's bid for reelection in 2024.
As the 2024 elections approach, both Biden and Trump will have to navigate through the ensuing months carefully. Each step will play a critical role in determining the future of the United States as the race gets tighter and Americans prepare to cast their votes.
Camille Lefevre for TROIB News