The Future of TikTok: Exploring the Timeline and Analyzing the Impact of a Possible Ban
Exploring TikTok's future, this article presents a comprehensive timeline and analysis regarding the potential repercussions of a ban on the platform. It delves into key developments and provides insights into how such a ban could affect users, creators, and the broader social media landscape.
### The Background
TikTok serves as the international version of Douyin, a widely-used short video app in China created by ByteDance. Established in 2012 by entrepreneur Zhang Yiming, ByteDance engineered a sophisticated recommendation algorithm to help users discover relevant content.
Launched in 2017, TikTok quickly captured global attention, becoming the second most downloaded app worldwide in 2019, according to analysis firm SensorTower. This rapid ascent, however, occurred amidst a backdrop of increasing scrutiny from the U.S. government. In 2019, the Department of Defense recommended that all military personnel remove TikTok from their devices.
The Trump administration took significant steps in 2020 to impose restrictions on TikTok, issuing executive orders that cited concerns over data collection and possible connections to the Chinese government. These attempts ran into legal challenges that largely impeded their enforcement.
Initially, the Biden administration chose to delay legal proceedings related to Trump’s ban, effectively pausing them. Meanwhile, competing companies like Meta depicted TikTok as a risk to children.
In the spring of 2024, Congress enacted the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,” which granted President Biden the authority to prohibit apps identified as national security threats. Biden subsequently signed the bill into law, which could compel ByteDance to divest its U.S. operations.
In turn, TikTok launched a lawsuit against the U.S. government, contending that the ban is unconstitutional and infringes upon the First Amendment rights of both the company and its users. On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the case but did not issue a prompt ruling.
### What Happens Now?
Should the court maintain the ban and the U.S. government proceeds without delay, TikTok will be prohibited in the U.S. by January 19, 2025.
U.S. smartphone users might find TikTok absent from the app store, with those currently using the app potentially unable to watch videos as the service is terminated.
Some users may try to bypass the ban using tools like VPNs to access the content.
Alternatively, they could turn to other platforms, such as RedNote, another Chinese social media app currently surging in popularity among free iPhone apps in the U.S. after a wave of new registrations from American users. However, TikTok creators who rely on the platform for their livelihoods may face the challenge of starting anew on a different app without their existing followers.
In terms of employment, TikTok staff in the U.S. are not expected to face immediate job losses, as ByteDance has reportedly assured them that the company will not exit the U.S. market right away.
There remains the possibility of a delay in the ban's enforcement; Donald Trump, who is set to take office on January 20, is apparently contemplating a strategy to preserve TikTok. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court might overturn the ban in the days leading up to its implementation.
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News