Six Months On, Numerous Voters Remain Uncertain About Biden's Billions
According to a new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll, a challenging presidential campaign has not convinced most voters that the president's significant spending initiatives have improved their lives.
TroibNews 
Democrats continue to face challenges in convincing voters of their vision for a climate-driven manufacturing and jobs boom, according to a recent PMG-Morning Consult poll. As the time dwindles for Kamala Harris to portray herself as a more effective economic steward than Donald Trump, the stakes are high.
Fewer than 30% of voters believe that President Joe Biden's significant legislative achievements have made a positive impact on their lives and communities. Overall, voter sentiment regarding the Biden-Harris administration's substantial domestic spending efforts has seen little change or a slight decline since April, despite both parties intensifying their campaigns ahead of next week's election.
Many voters are reporting increased uncertainty about the impact of these laws compared to last spring.
There are at least two encouraging signs for Democrats: the survey revealed that self-identified political independents are much more optimistic about the president’s climate law compared to six months ago. In addition, fewer voters described the Biden-backed legislation as harmful than those who viewed it as beneficial or having mixed effects.
Notably, the climate law remains more favored than opposed among the electorate, despite ongoing criticism from Trump.
The survey results highlight the difficulties Biden and Harris have encountered in linking their administration’s pivotal initiatives on climate, infrastructure, technology, and pandemic response to the general public. Democrats assert that these laws have created hundreds of thousands of jobs and promised hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in battery factories, auto plants, and energy projects throughout the country. However, Harris and Trump are essentially neck-and-neck, each garnering 47% support from voters who believe one candidate would excel at job creation.
The poll also found widespread unfamiliarity among the public regarding key aspects of U.S. energy and climate policy, particularly that the U.S. has emerged as the leading global oil producer while simultaneously reducing its greenhouse gas emissions since 2005. Trump has been vocal for over a year about his stance, claiming that Biden has launched a “war on energy” that has compromised American fossil fuel independence.
Conducted from October 21 through Wednesday, the PMG-Morning Consult poll is part of PMG’s “Biden’s Billions” series, which has analyzed the president’s attempts to revitalize manufacturing, outpace China in semiconductor technology, and address climate challenges. The poll included responses from 4,002 registered voters collected online, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The findings demonstrate only minimal shifts in voters’ understanding and appreciation of Biden's initiatives since a prior PMG-Morning Consult poll conducted on April 27-28.
Key insights include:
**Limited Recognition of Significant Legislation:** More voters expressed trust in Harris over Trump when it comes to the four major domestic spending initiatives linked to Biden: the pandemic relief law known as the American Rescue Plan, that year’s bipartisan infrastructure law, the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democrats’ key climate policy. However, a large portion of the public remains largely unaware of these laws, and only a minority felt that these policies have positively impacted their lives and communities.
While awareness of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was relatively high, with 19% stating they had heard “a lot” and 37% saying they had heard “some,” just 24% reported that the IRA has had a “positive” effect on them, while 19% felt it had negative effects and 24% described its impact as mixed.
Negative views of the IRA exceed those regarding the infrastructure, CHIPS, and American Rescue Plan laws, likely reflecting Trump’s frequent critiques of the climate law as a “green new scam.”
Despite Trump's efforts to undermine the climate law's popularity, the IRA has not significantly declined in favorability. A 1 percentage point increase in positive perceptions and a 2 percentage point decrease in negative impressions were noted since April — both results fall within the poll’s margin of error.
**Partisan Divisions Persist:** Trump’s depiction of the IRA as a driver of inflation may be reinforcing partisan divides regarding perceptions of its impact.
Thirty-eight percent of Democrats indicated in this poll that the IRA has positively affected their lives, compared to just 11% of Republicans. Additionally, 30% of Republicans viewed the climate law as harmful, while only 5% of Democrats and 23% of independents shared that view.
Notably, the climate law has gained in favor among independents: 21% believe the IRA has benefited them personally, up from 15% six months prior.
In the latest findings, Republicans expressed a more neutral stance on other major Biden initiatives. For CHIPS, 12% viewed it positively, while 15% viewed it negatively. The perception of the infrastructure law showed 11% positive responses against 21% negative, and for the American Rescue Plan, responses were split at 14% positive and 20% negative.
**Gen Z's Mixed Feelings:** Notably, the opinions of Generation Z voters are not solely partisan. This demographic, which has faced challenges in energizing for Biden, displayed the most ambivalence toward the administration’s legislative successes.
Gen Z voters exhibited the lowest trust in Harris for climate decision-making, where only 44% preferred her over Trump. Conversely, higher percentages of millennials, Generation X, and baby boomers expressed the same preference. About one-third of each of those generations believed Trump would perform better on climate issues.
However, this generation, prominent among climate activism linked to concepts like the Green New Deal, was the least likely to believe that Biden’s key laws have had beneficial outcomes. Only 21% of Gen Z voters viewed the IRA positively, even though it includes several Green New Deal elements, such as electric vehicle purchase subsidies.
**Who is the builder?** More respondents preferred Harris for energy project decision-making over the 42% who sided with Trump. The split was even regarding infrastructure investment decisions, with both Harris and Trump receiving 44% support.
On climate change specifically, Harris had a clearer advantage, with 49% trusting her over 33% who supported Trump.
Experts, including climate scientists and energy analysts, assert that achieving global climate targets necessitates trillions of dollars in annual investments. Transitioning the economy’s power grid, industrial sectors, and vehicles toward greener options is the most direct path to achieving these goals. The U.S. currently lags behind Biden’s commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 relative to 2005 levels.
Many respondents to the poll mistakenly believed the U.S. was performing worse in reducing greenhouse gas emissions than it actually is. Only 16% recognized that carbon pollution has decreased since 2005, even though the reduction falls short of what scientists maintain is necessary to avert a drastic rise in global temperatures.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
Fewer than 30% of voters believe that President Joe Biden's significant legislative achievements have made a positive impact on their lives and communities. Overall, voter sentiment regarding the Biden-Harris administration's substantial domestic spending efforts has seen little change or a slight decline since April, despite both parties intensifying their campaigns ahead of next week's election.
Many voters are reporting increased uncertainty about the impact of these laws compared to last spring.
There are at least two encouraging signs for Democrats: the survey revealed that self-identified political independents are much more optimistic about the president’s climate law compared to six months ago. In addition, fewer voters described the Biden-backed legislation as harmful than those who viewed it as beneficial or having mixed effects.
Notably, the climate law remains more favored than opposed among the electorate, despite ongoing criticism from Trump.
The survey results highlight the difficulties Biden and Harris have encountered in linking their administration’s pivotal initiatives on climate, infrastructure, technology, and pandemic response to the general public. Democrats assert that these laws have created hundreds of thousands of jobs and promised hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in battery factories, auto plants, and energy projects throughout the country. However, Harris and Trump are essentially neck-and-neck, each garnering 47% support from voters who believe one candidate would excel at job creation.
The poll also found widespread unfamiliarity among the public regarding key aspects of U.S. energy and climate policy, particularly that the U.S. has emerged as the leading global oil producer while simultaneously reducing its greenhouse gas emissions since 2005. Trump has been vocal for over a year about his stance, claiming that Biden has launched a “war on energy” that has compromised American fossil fuel independence.
Conducted from October 21 through Wednesday, the PMG-Morning Consult poll is part of PMG’s “Biden’s Billions” series, which has analyzed the president’s attempts to revitalize manufacturing, outpace China in semiconductor technology, and address climate challenges. The poll included responses from 4,002 registered voters collected online, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The findings demonstrate only minimal shifts in voters’ understanding and appreciation of Biden's initiatives since a prior PMG-Morning Consult poll conducted on April 27-28.
Key insights include:
**Limited Recognition of Significant Legislation:** More voters expressed trust in Harris over Trump when it comes to the four major domestic spending initiatives linked to Biden: the pandemic relief law known as the American Rescue Plan, that year’s bipartisan infrastructure law, the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democrats’ key climate policy. However, a large portion of the public remains largely unaware of these laws, and only a minority felt that these policies have positively impacted their lives and communities.
While awareness of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was relatively high, with 19% stating they had heard “a lot” and 37% saying they had heard “some,” just 24% reported that the IRA has had a “positive” effect on them, while 19% felt it had negative effects and 24% described its impact as mixed.
Negative views of the IRA exceed those regarding the infrastructure, CHIPS, and American Rescue Plan laws, likely reflecting Trump’s frequent critiques of the climate law as a “green new scam.”
Despite Trump's efforts to undermine the climate law's popularity, the IRA has not significantly declined in favorability. A 1 percentage point increase in positive perceptions and a 2 percentage point decrease in negative impressions were noted since April — both results fall within the poll’s margin of error.
**Partisan Divisions Persist:** Trump’s depiction of the IRA as a driver of inflation may be reinforcing partisan divides regarding perceptions of its impact.
Thirty-eight percent of Democrats indicated in this poll that the IRA has positively affected their lives, compared to just 11% of Republicans. Additionally, 30% of Republicans viewed the climate law as harmful, while only 5% of Democrats and 23% of independents shared that view.
Notably, the climate law has gained in favor among independents: 21% believe the IRA has benefited them personally, up from 15% six months prior.
In the latest findings, Republicans expressed a more neutral stance on other major Biden initiatives. For CHIPS, 12% viewed it positively, while 15% viewed it negatively. The perception of the infrastructure law showed 11% positive responses against 21% negative, and for the American Rescue Plan, responses were split at 14% positive and 20% negative.
**Gen Z's Mixed Feelings:** Notably, the opinions of Generation Z voters are not solely partisan. This demographic, which has faced challenges in energizing for Biden, displayed the most ambivalence toward the administration’s legislative successes.
Gen Z voters exhibited the lowest trust in Harris for climate decision-making, where only 44% preferred her over Trump. Conversely, higher percentages of millennials, Generation X, and baby boomers expressed the same preference. About one-third of each of those generations believed Trump would perform better on climate issues.
However, this generation, prominent among climate activism linked to concepts like the Green New Deal, was the least likely to believe that Biden’s key laws have had beneficial outcomes. Only 21% of Gen Z voters viewed the IRA positively, even though it includes several Green New Deal elements, such as electric vehicle purchase subsidies.
**Who is the builder?** More respondents preferred Harris for energy project decision-making over the 42% who sided with Trump. The split was even regarding infrastructure investment decisions, with both Harris and Trump receiving 44% support.
On climate change specifically, Harris had a clearer advantage, with 49% trusting her over 33% who supported Trump.
Experts, including climate scientists and energy analysts, assert that achieving global climate targets necessitates trillions of dollars in annual investments. Transitioning the economy’s power grid, industrial sectors, and vehicles toward greener options is the most direct path to achieving these goals. The U.S. currently lags behind Biden’s commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 relative to 2005 levels.
Many respondents to the poll mistakenly believed the U.S. was performing worse in reducing greenhouse gas emissions than it actually is. Only 16% recognized that carbon pollution has decreased since 2005, even though the reduction falls short of what scientists maintain is necessary to avert a drastic rise in global temperatures.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
