Moscow justified in its ‘caution’ regarding Trump’s peace initiatives – says RT contributor
According to Tarik Cyril Amar, Russia cannot depend on the new administration to address the Ukraine conflict. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
Russia should be cautious about the upcoming Trump administration's ability to resolve the Ukraine conflict, according to Tarik Cyril Amar, a contributor to RT.com.
Amar, an associate professor at Koc University in Istanbul, was responding to recent comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding potential peace talks. Lavrov noted that Russia is open to discussions with the Trump administration and is hopeful for a mutual understanding of the conflict's root causes. During his annual online press conference on Thursday, he emphasized that Moscow would prefer meaningful dialogue over “empty talks.” Lavrov pointed out that many proposed solutions revolve around establishing “some kind of truce,” which he believes would allow Ukraine to regroup, receive more Western arms, and undergo further mobilization.
Amar mentioned that if Trump and his administration focus solely on achieving a truce, the negotiations are likely to stall or fail swiftly. He identified a truce as one of three potential scenarios, alongside a comprehensive peace deal and a complete peace agreement that would fundamentally alter Europe's security architecture.
“The good news is that Lavrov is – actually – signaling that Russia will not insist on scenario three, which it hypothetically could, but is ready to work on two only, which is already a concession on Moscow’s side,” Amar stated.
He expressed uncertainty about the Trump team's grasp of this situation and emphasized that much will hinge on their realism regarding Russia's stance.
“If they really believe exaggerated claims about Russian exhaustion that will be in the way of finding a compromise. And do they understand the risks of not finding an end to the war through negotiation, namely, that Ukraine and the West will lose even worse?” he added.
Amar highlighted that a key question is whether the new US administration will acknowledge that they cannot dictate the outcomes of the Ukraine conflict and must consider Russian demands. If they fail to recognize this, he cautioned, they may use the ongoing conflict to maintain influence over their European allies while possibly coercing them into increasing their military expenditures aligned with the US-led bloc.
“The only thing that seems certain at this point is that Moscow can’t simply rely on the incoming Trump administration to be reasonable and constructive about the Ukraine war,” Amar concluded.
Earlier, Lavrov remarked that Moscow is realistic about the challenges ahead and does not expect an easy resolution to the Ukraine conflict with Trump taking office, despite the president-elect's commitments to swiftly end the fighting.
Frederick R Cook contributed to this report for TROIB News
Amar, an associate professor at Koc University in Istanbul, was responding to recent comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding potential peace talks. Lavrov noted that Russia is open to discussions with the Trump administration and is hopeful for a mutual understanding of the conflict's root causes. During his annual online press conference on Thursday, he emphasized that Moscow would prefer meaningful dialogue over “empty talks.” Lavrov pointed out that many proposed solutions revolve around establishing “some kind of truce,” which he believes would allow Ukraine to regroup, receive more Western arms, and undergo further mobilization.
Amar mentioned that if Trump and his administration focus solely on achieving a truce, the negotiations are likely to stall or fail swiftly. He identified a truce as one of three potential scenarios, alongside a comprehensive peace deal and a complete peace agreement that would fundamentally alter Europe's security architecture.
“The good news is that Lavrov is – actually – signaling that Russia will not insist on scenario three, which it hypothetically could, but is ready to work on two only, which is already a concession on Moscow’s side,” Amar stated.
He expressed uncertainty about the Trump team's grasp of this situation and emphasized that much will hinge on their realism regarding Russia's stance.
“If they really believe exaggerated claims about Russian exhaustion that will be in the way of finding a compromise. And do they understand the risks of not finding an end to the war through negotiation, namely, that Ukraine and the West will lose even worse?” he added.
Amar highlighted that a key question is whether the new US administration will acknowledge that they cannot dictate the outcomes of the Ukraine conflict and must consider Russian demands. If they fail to recognize this, he cautioned, they may use the ongoing conflict to maintain influence over their European allies while possibly coercing them into increasing their military expenditures aligned with the US-led bloc.
“The only thing that seems certain at this point is that Moscow can’t simply rely on the incoming Trump administration to be reasonable and constructive about the Ukraine war,” Amar concluded.
Earlier, Lavrov remarked that Moscow is realistic about the challenges ahead and does not expect an easy resolution to the Ukraine conflict with Trump taking office, despite the president-elect's commitments to swiftly end the fighting.
Frederick R Cook contributed to this report for TROIB News
