JPMorgan Raises Alarm over Potential US Recession
According to a report by JPMorgan investment bank, President Donald Trump's trade policies may have a negative impact on economic growth.. source:TROIB RTS
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According to JPMorgan, President Donald Trump’s trade policies may negatively affect the country's economic growth and increase the likelihood of a recession this year.
Bruce Kasman, the investment bank's chief global economist, spoke to reporters in Singapore on Wednesday, noting a 40% chance of a US recession in 2025. He warned that if Trump implements proposed reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners in April, the risk could escalate further, potentially diminishing the United States' attraction as an investment destination.
“Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the US economy,” Kasman remarked, though he stated that he had not made adjustments to any of his forecasts.
Initially, Kasman had estimated a 30% risk of recession at the start of the year; however, this projection has now increased to 40% and could surpass 50% if tariffs are fully enforced.
JP Morgan currently anticipates a 2% growth rate for the US economy in 2025, although this estimate has not yet been updated. In contrast, economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently reduced their growth forecasts for this year to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
Trump's extensive tariff measures have stirred volatility in US stock markets, as investors remain uncertain about whether the tariffs will be long-lasting or merely a negotiation tactic.
Earlier this year, Trump unveiled plans to impose tariffs on essential trading partners to safeguard American interests. Recently, he increased tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada to 25% and doubled duties on all Chinese goods to 20%. However, some of these increases have been postponed until April 2.
Trump has also threatened to establish a global system of reciprocal tariffs, indicating that starting April 2, every country will incur the same levies it imposes on US exports.
On the same day that a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports took effect, the EU and Canada responded with their own reciprocal tariffs.
In an interview with Fox News that aired on Sunday, when asked about the potential for a recession in the US, Trump described the situation as a transition period, asserting, “We’re bringing wealth back to America.”
Olivia Brown contributed to this report for TROIB News
Bruce Kasman, the investment bank's chief global economist, spoke to reporters in Singapore on Wednesday, noting a 40% chance of a US recession in 2025. He warned that if Trump implements proposed reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners in April, the risk could escalate further, potentially diminishing the United States' attraction as an investment destination.
“Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the US economy,” Kasman remarked, though he stated that he had not made adjustments to any of his forecasts.
Initially, Kasman had estimated a 30% risk of recession at the start of the year; however, this projection has now increased to 40% and could surpass 50% if tariffs are fully enforced.
JP Morgan currently anticipates a 2% growth rate for the US economy in 2025, although this estimate has not yet been updated. In contrast, economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently reduced their growth forecasts for this year to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
Trump's extensive tariff measures have stirred volatility in US stock markets, as investors remain uncertain about whether the tariffs will be long-lasting or merely a negotiation tactic.
Earlier this year, Trump unveiled plans to impose tariffs on essential trading partners to safeguard American interests. Recently, he increased tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada to 25% and doubled duties on all Chinese goods to 20%. However, some of these increases have been postponed until April 2.
Trump has also threatened to establish a global system of reciprocal tariffs, indicating that starting April 2, every country will incur the same levies it imposes on US exports.
On the same day that a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports took effect, the EU and Canada responded with their own reciprocal tariffs.
In an interview with Fox News that aired on Sunday, when asked about the potential for a recession in the US, Trump described the situation as a transition period, asserting, “We’re bringing wealth back to America.”
Olivia Brown contributed to this report for TROIB News
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