Johnson's standing with Trump becomes unstable following spending scandal
Despite months of effort to gain the support of the president-elect, the speaker was not completely shielded from the president’s anger regarding a funding bill.
As the U.S. approaches the brink of a government shutdown, deeply divided Republicans are grappling to establish a coherent path forward, with Johnson's position precariously reliant on Trump's unpredictable support.
Several conservative House members, along with Trump advisers and others familiar with the situation surrounding the upcoming president, suggest that Johnson’s grip on the speakership is precarious just as Republicans prepare to assume control of the House, Senate, and White House. One anonymous Trump adviser indicated that Johnson could mend his standing by “doing what Trump wants.” However, another source expressed that Trump was not “protecting him” and cautioned against being misled by the president-elect’s seemingly supportive comments.
“If somebody challenges Johnson, you're not going to get any pushback,” the Trump adviser warned, emphasizing that this implied a lack of support for Johnson if he found himself in a difficult situation.
Johnson's authority was already fragile, with a narrow House majority set to become even slimmer, but this week’s conflict over a bipartisan spending measure may have dealt a significant blow to the Louisiana congressman.
While he appeared to have regained Trump’s favor by compliant with the president-elect’s directives on government funding, the reality is far less certain. After months of close alignment with Trump, the incoming president didn’t hesitate to undermine Johnson’s funding proposal on Wednesday, openly suggesting that Johnson’s survival as speaker depended on whether he could “cut out the Democratic wins they secured.”
The unspoken implication among Republicans was clear: Johnson’s position was at serious risk if he failed to comply.
In a bid to win back Trump’s support, Johnson met late into Wednesday night with Vice President-elect JD Vance, seeking to reconcile public disagreements within the party over government funding. Throughout the day, as Johnson engaged with various factions within his own conference, he and his team also worked to align with Trump and his supporters to prevent another unsuccessful funding bill.
However, questions arose regarding communication breakdowns in light of ongoing discussions about the initial stopgap plan. Some speculated whether public criticisms by Elon Musk shifted the dynamics.
This situation serves as a harsh reminder of how quickly Trump’s allegiances can shift and how readily he discards allies who have previously secured his favor. Johnson understands the critical nature of maintaining Trump’s support for his political viability as speaker, a reality that will impact his operational decisions in the coming weeks and possibly next year, should he retain his gavel.
Trump’s allies were actively seeking support for the new stopgap funding proposal; the White House legislative team was reportedly involved in gauging members' opinions ahead of the vote on the revised spending plan, according to an informed member. Some of Trump’s aides have explicitly cautioned Republicans against opposing initiatives endorsed by the incoming president.
Rep. Ryan Zinke remarked Thursday, following discussions with Rep. Victoria Spartz, that he was urging “caution” to Republicans who opposed the new stopgap, emphasizing that Trump “is the quarterback” and “he called a play.” Spartz, however, voted against the bill.
Yet, Trump’s support for Johnson’s speakership has noticeably waned. Earlier this month, one House Republican disclosed that Trump was privately advising GOP members not to create distractions as his administration was set to begin. Following the spending debacle, concerns arose regarding Johnson’s ongoing backing.
One House Freedom Caucus member articulated that Trump’s endorsement is a deciding factor: “I keep hearing more and more rumors of people that are jailbreak but at the end of the day, if Trump is backing him on Jan. 3, you really want to stand up against Trump?”
The House Freedom Caucus also convened Thursday prior to the vote on the Trump-supported spending measure, where members expressed frustrations and acknowledged Trump’s scrutiny of the situation, according to a source familiar with their meeting. A significant number of conservatives opposed the funding proposal, and one dissenter, Rep. Chip Roy, faced a primary threat from Trump earlier that day.
Johnson finds himself with almost no margin for error regarding a speakership vote. Republicans are projected to hold a 219-215 majority on January 3, due to Matt Gaetz's resignation, meaning Johnson can afford to lose only one GOP member to secure the 218 votes necessary to remain speaker.
He is already facing a setback: Rep. Thomas Massie has openly stated he does not plan to support Johnson on the House floor, hinting that other Republicans may share similar sentiments. Furthermore, Spartz indicated earlier this week that while she intends to remain a Republican, she may not attend conference meetings, casting doubt on her support for Johnson.
No other member has publicly sided with Massie as of yet, yet Johnson's leadership is increasingly met with skepticism and vocal critiques from several colleagues who remain undecided about his speakership bid. Potential alternatives to Johnson are being discussed, including Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, and Rep. Byron Donalds, as conservatives express discontent with the initial funding proposal.
“I think he’s certainly got a lot of whipping to do,” observed one House conservative, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Meanwhile, some conservatives downplayed threats to Johnson’s speakership as mere posturing.
“Everyone likes to question, and then no one likes to actually go out and publicly own it. So until someone steps up, I don't even think that that's a topic of discussion as of right now. The president supports him. I support him,” asserted Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a member of the Freedom Caucus, regarding Johnson’s prospects of retaining his position.
When asked if Trump’s endorsement of the spending plan benefits Johnson on January 3, Rep. Ralph Norman replied, “time will tell.”
“I like Mike,” added Norman, who opposes the current spending proposal. “[But] no bill is better than a bad bill.”
Contributions to this report were made by Meridith McGraw, Meredith Lee Hill, and Holly Otterbein.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News