Harris leads rally outside Milwaukee amid low voter turnout
Early voting turnout in the Democratic stronghold is lagging compared to the rest of the state.
TroibNews 
Kamala Harris rallied voters just outside Milwaukee on Friday night, urging Wisconsinites to “turn the page” on Donald Trump as her campaign focuses on boosting turnout in a Democratic stronghold where early voting is lagging behind the rest of the state.
According to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, Milwaukee is behind the state by approximately 7 percent in both mail-in return rates and overall registered voter turnout. This trend has raised concerns among Democrats, who fear that Harris's campaign needs to secure the urban and suburban vote to compensate for losses in rural counties.
“For you who have not voted yet, no judgment. Let me just be clear, no judgment at all, but do get to it if you can,” Harris said with a laugh at the rally, which featured rapper Cardi B. “For those of you who have not yet voted, please think about, right now, your plan for voting.”
Harris held her rally just a few miles from a competing event hosted by Trump on the same night. As both candidates returned to the pivotal swing state days before an election predicted to be extremely close in the polls, the Harris campaign plans to bring in former President Barack Obama to campaign in Milwaukee on Sunday.
Despite the heightened focus on the state, some Democrats expressed concern, particularly about Milwaukee, indicating a need for “more attention,” according to one operative who spoke on condition of anonymity. They noted a “steady erosion of Black and Latino support from election to election” in the city.
Dane County, home to the state capital and its flagship university, has seen significant Democratic turnout, but Milwaukee faces challenges. "It's covered up problems in Milwaukee in the polling," the operative said. "The trend looks bad buried inside these wins."
Historically, Democrats have been successful in Wisconsin, winning 14 of the last 17 statewide contests, primarily by achieving large margins in urban and suburban areas while keeping losses in rural regions to a minimum. This strategy recently benefited Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who won re-election by a narrow 3-point margin in 2022.
“I worried in 2022 that the Republican voters would snap back to the Republican party, but instead, Republicans moved toward MAGA, and suburban voters felt left behind,” said Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. “There’s a hunger for a return to reasonableness that started in 2016, then even more in 2018, when Democrats started flipping Republican-held assembly seats, and the governor's race in 2022 and [state] Supreme Court race in 2023 — we see that energy now.”
However, the upcoming 2024 election brings new challenges for Democrats. With eight presidential candidates on the ballot, the potential for third-party candidates to disrupt Harris's vote totals increases. Additionally, Wisconsin has not garnered as much campaign attention as states like Pennsylvania or Michigan, ranking fifth in TV ad spending for Harris, according to PMG analysis. Before this past week, Harris had visited the state only seven times, fewer than her visits to other key Blue Wall states, although she increased her presence with rallies in Madison and various cities on Friday.
Prior to her rally, Harris engaged with voters at an electrical workers’ union hall in Janesville, Wis., and rallied supporters at a high school gym in Little Chute, where she pledged to eliminate college degree requirements for certain federal jobs as a day-one executive action.
However, Democrats have “lost ground” in Milwaukee, facing a persistent challenge in matching the turnout levels seen during Obama’s campaigns in 2008 and 2012, said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic consultant in Wisconsin.
“So we may well lose ground again, but the question is — where are we doing better?” he asked.
“Look at Dane County. Look at Republican shrinkage in the WOW counties,” Zepecki said, referencing the three Republican-leaning suburban counties around Milwaukee, where Democrats have improved their numbers during the Trump era. He highlighted the recent endorsement of Harris by Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly, a Republican. “Yes, we’ve seen some diminishment of Democratic performance in Milwaukee over time. But compare that to Republican Trump-era struggles in the suburbs … One of those matters — for the statewide math — a lot more than the other.”
Democrats are optimistic about the strong turnout in Dane County, which is exceeding state trends, as a potential boost for Harris. According to a Democratic strategist who requested anonymity to discuss internal data, their modeling suggests that most Republicans participating in early voting are consistent voters from the 2022 midterms, adding pressure on Trump to mobilize low-propensity voters on Election Day.
Milwaukee also set records for its in-person absentee voting, indicating a surge in participation.
“We’re seeing extremely strong turnout across the state, setting records each day, and part of that is because Republicans are now early voting, so suddenly, we’re seeing high-propensity Republican voters converting to becoming early voters versus Milwaukee, which has more low-propensity voters,” said another Wisconsin Democratic strategist who spoke anonymously. “Milwaukee is about performing where it was in 2020 and in 2022, and Democrats won those years.”
Also on Friday, a senior official from the Harris campaign indicated that their data suggests late-deciding voters are leaning towards them by “double-digits,” which could influence Election Day turnout favorably.
Mandela Barnes, the state’s former Democratic lieutenant governor, expressed confidence in the potential for substantial Election Day turnout in the city.
“The rally she’s having in Milwaukee, all the events she’s had here, has demonstrated the campaign’s understanding of how important this area is,” Barnes said. He now leads Power to the Polls Wisconsin, a progressive turnout initiative, and noted that his group plans to ramp up efforts from 150 to 200 door-knockers this week to 500 on Election Day. However, to address the long-term issue of declining Black turnout in Milwaukee, he emphasized the need for year-round organizing to strengthen community power.
Jessica Piper contributed to this report.
Rohan Mehta contributed to this report for TROIB News
According to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, Milwaukee is behind the state by approximately 7 percent in both mail-in return rates and overall registered voter turnout. This trend has raised concerns among Democrats, who fear that Harris's campaign needs to secure the urban and suburban vote to compensate for losses in rural counties.
“For you who have not voted yet, no judgment. Let me just be clear, no judgment at all, but do get to it if you can,” Harris said with a laugh at the rally, which featured rapper Cardi B. “For those of you who have not yet voted, please think about, right now, your plan for voting.”
Harris held her rally just a few miles from a competing event hosted by Trump on the same night. As both candidates returned to the pivotal swing state days before an election predicted to be extremely close in the polls, the Harris campaign plans to bring in former President Barack Obama to campaign in Milwaukee on Sunday.
Despite the heightened focus on the state, some Democrats expressed concern, particularly about Milwaukee, indicating a need for “more attention,” according to one operative who spoke on condition of anonymity. They noted a “steady erosion of Black and Latino support from election to election” in the city.
Dane County, home to the state capital and its flagship university, has seen significant Democratic turnout, but Milwaukee faces challenges. "It's covered up problems in Milwaukee in the polling," the operative said. "The trend looks bad buried inside these wins."
Historically, Democrats have been successful in Wisconsin, winning 14 of the last 17 statewide contests, primarily by achieving large margins in urban and suburban areas while keeping losses in rural regions to a minimum. This strategy recently benefited Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who won re-election by a narrow 3-point margin in 2022.
“I worried in 2022 that the Republican voters would snap back to the Republican party, but instead, Republicans moved toward MAGA, and suburban voters felt left behind,” said Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. “There’s a hunger for a return to reasonableness that started in 2016, then even more in 2018, when Democrats started flipping Republican-held assembly seats, and the governor's race in 2022 and [state] Supreme Court race in 2023 — we see that energy now.”
However, the upcoming 2024 election brings new challenges for Democrats. With eight presidential candidates on the ballot, the potential for third-party candidates to disrupt Harris's vote totals increases. Additionally, Wisconsin has not garnered as much campaign attention as states like Pennsylvania or Michigan, ranking fifth in TV ad spending for Harris, according to PMG analysis. Before this past week, Harris had visited the state only seven times, fewer than her visits to other key Blue Wall states, although she increased her presence with rallies in Madison and various cities on Friday.
Prior to her rally, Harris engaged with voters at an electrical workers’ union hall in Janesville, Wis., and rallied supporters at a high school gym in Little Chute, where she pledged to eliminate college degree requirements for certain federal jobs as a day-one executive action.
However, Democrats have “lost ground” in Milwaukee, facing a persistent challenge in matching the turnout levels seen during Obama’s campaigns in 2008 and 2012, said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic consultant in Wisconsin.
“So we may well lose ground again, but the question is — where are we doing better?” he asked.
“Look at Dane County. Look at Republican shrinkage in the WOW counties,” Zepecki said, referencing the three Republican-leaning suburban counties around Milwaukee, where Democrats have improved their numbers during the Trump era. He highlighted the recent endorsement of Harris by Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly, a Republican. “Yes, we’ve seen some diminishment of Democratic performance in Milwaukee over time. But compare that to Republican Trump-era struggles in the suburbs … One of those matters — for the statewide math — a lot more than the other.”
Democrats are optimistic about the strong turnout in Dane County, which is exceeding state trends, as a potential boost for Harris. According to a Democratic strategist who requested anonymity to discuss internal data, their modeling suggests that most Republicans participating in early voting are consistent voters from the 2022 midterms, adding pressure on Trump to mobilize low-propensity voters on Election Day.
Milwaukee also set records for its in-person absentee voting, indicating a surge in participation.
“We’re seeing extremely strong turnout across the state, setting records each day, and part of that is because Republicans are now early voting, so suddenly, we’re seeing high-propensity Republican voters converting to becoming early voters versus Milwaukee, which has more low-propensity voters,” said another Wisconsin Democratic strategist who spoke anonymously. “Milwaukee is about performing where it was in 2020 and in 2022, and Democrats won those years.”
Also on Friday, a senior official from the Harris campaign indicated that their data suggests late-deciding voters are leaning towards them by “double-digits,” which could influence Election Day turnout favorably.
Mandela Barnes, the state’s former Democratic lieutenant governor, expressed confidence in the potential for substantial Election Day turnout in the city.
“The rally she’s having in Milwaukee, all the events she’s had here, has demonstrated the campaign’s understanding of how important this area is,” Barnes said. He now leads Power to the Polls Wisconsin, a progressive turnout initiative, and noted that his group plans to ramp up efforts from 150 to 200 door-knockers this week to 500 on Election Day. However, to address the long-term issue of declining Black turnout in Milwaukee, he emphasized the need for year-round organizing to strengthen community power.
Jessica Piper contributed to this report.
Rohan Mehta contributed to this report for TROIB News
