The silent danger to Canadian unity isn't Quebec — it's Alberta
The province's independence movement, characterized as “elite-driven,” leverages profound discontent with the rest of the nation.
TroibNews 
EDMONTON, Alberta — Mark Carney, the Alberta-raised prime minister seeking a fourth term for Canada's Liberal Party, has become an ironic target for the province's rising independence movement.
As Carney approaches Edmonton on the campaign's final day, he sees an opportunity in the oil-rich province, where the name Trudeau — referencing both Justin and his father, Pierre — has been synonymous with disdain for decades. Many Albertans often feel overlooked or disregarded by politicians from the east.
The prospect of Carney’s election on Monday leaves many in the province feeling uneasy. For the past decade, they have perceived that Liberals in Ottawa have neglected Alberta’s significant contributions to the nation's economic growth and have worked against the oil and gas sector that has driven much of it.
Preston Manning, an elder statesman and the 82-year-old godfather of a prairie populist movement that gained traction in Ottawa three decades ago, recently cautioned about the severe repercussions of another Liberal government. In a prominent op-ed published in The Globe and Mail, Manning issued a provocative warning: a Carney victory could invigorate a separatist movement in a province often at odds with the federal government.
“A vote for Carney's Liberals,” Manning stated, “is a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.” This commentary has reignited discussions in Calgary, Edmonton, and the nation's capital about the depth of these sentiments.
Jason Kenney, a former Alberta premier who took legal action against Trudeau’s government over a federal carbon tax and pipeline regulation, dismissed Manning’s implied threat.
"Threatening to leave the country because you don't get your desired electoral outcome is counterproductive and unpatriotic," said Kenney, speaking to reporters at an April conference of grassroots Conservatives. "And I don't think it's something that should be thrown around."
Kenney emphasized that central Canadian political elites should not dismiss the legitimate grievances expressed by those in the West, particularly concerning their energy industry.
Kenney's successor, Danielle Smith, has put forth nine demands for any party that wins the election, primarily aimed at revitalizing the oil and gas sector.
"I provided a specific list of demands the next prime minister, regardless of who that is, must address within the first six months of their term to avoid an unprecedented national unity crisis," she remarked in March after meeting Carney in Edmonton.
What do the polls indicate? The Angus Reid Institute recently found significant, though not overwhelming, support for Alberta's potential departure from Canada, with 25 percent of respondents stating they would vote to leave regardless of the election outcome. This figure rises to 30 percent in the event of a Liberal victory.
The polling reflects the growing sentiment of western alienation. In 2016, 45 percent of Albertans felt respected by the rest of the country; this year, that number has fallen to only 24 percent.
Jared Wesley, a professor at the University of Alberta and an expert on the evolving identities of the region, suggests that the core of separatists in Alberta is likely much smaller. His research indicates that only about one in ten residents would support leaving Canada, and most of them do not expect Alberta to successfully separate.
"They're venting frustration. It’s a protest vote. It’s not really got a lot of meat behind it," Wesley noted. "It's absolutely an elite movement driven by folks that have an interest in ginning up separatist support."
According to Wesley, their ultimate aim could simply be to leverage demands from Ottawa for more favorable treatment, particularly concerning the oil and gas industry.
Sen. Paula Simons, a former longtime journalist in Alberta and now a member of the Independent Senators Group, stated that this scenario is not new to the province.
"This is not a new phenomenon in this province," she said. "It's a bit like mosquitoes that go dormant in dry summers, then they come out again when it rains. This is a prairie cyclical problem, and it happens when people in Alberta are feeling aggrieved."
Simons recognized that the feelings of alienation are not unfounded, pointing to the underrepresentation of Westerners in the Senate. The four western provinces collectively hold 24 Senate seats, while Ontario and Quebec each have 24, and the less populous Maritime provinces also share 24.
"The amount to which the Canadian paradigm favors the center is not imaginary," Simons asserted.
Both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are products of Alberta — Carney hails from Edmonton, while Poilievre is from Calgary.
Carney moved away for his education, first to Harvard and then to Oxford, and has not lived in the province since. However, he began his Liberal Party leadership campaign there earlier this year as part of a strategy to highlight his prairie roots to a country still getting familiar with him.
Following Carney's call for an election on April 28, he visited Alberta, where his party aims to secure a few Conservative seats.
Amarjeet Sohi, the mayor of Edmonton on leave, is one of the candidates hoping to win a seat in this election. A former Liberal MP and Cabinet minister who experienced defeat after one term, he understands the frustration of Alberta voters.
Sohi acknowledges that some Liberal voices in Ottawa adopted a "sanctimonious tone" during Trudeau’s initial four years, exacerbating Albertans' "legitimate concerns" about their status.
"There is a sense of alienation, not because they don't love Canada," he stated while campaigning in a suburban area. "There's a sense of lack of respect. Sometimes their contributions are not fully understood or appreciated."
He rarely encounters anyone advocating for Alberta's separation, recalling only one instance when a voter mentioned "Alberta 51" — a reference to the province pursuing statehood.
As election results unfold on Monday, Sen. Simons will closely monitor the Prairie side of the electoral map. "The worst-case scenario for Western alienation is a Carney victory with no seats in the West," she remarked.
While many Canadians have found a sense of patriotism in U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated annexation comments, the sentiment does not apply uniformly across Canada.
Kenney bluntly expressed, "Sadly, in Canada, we can never take national unity for granted."
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
As Carney approaches Edmonton on the campaign's final day, he sees an opportunity in the oil-rich province, where the name Trudeau — referencing both Justin and his father, Pierre — has been synonymous with disdain for decades. Many Albertans often feel overlooked or disregarded by politicians from the east.
The prospect of Carney’s election on Monday leaves many in the province feeling uneasy. For the past decade, they have perceived that Liberals in Ottawa have neglected Alberta’s significant contributions to the nation's economic growth and have worked against the oil and gas sector that has driven much of it.
Preston Manning, an elder statesman and the 82-year-old godfather of a prairie populist movement that gained traction in Ottawa three decades ago, recently cautioned about the severe repercussions of another Liberal government. In a prominent op-ed published in The Globe and Mail, Manning issued a provocative warning: a Carney victory could invigorate a separatist movement in a province often at odds with the federal government.
“A vote for Carney's Liberals,” Manning stated, “is a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.” This commentary has reignited discussions in Calgary, Edmonton, and the nation's capital about the depth of these sentiments.
Jason Kenney, a former Alberta premier who took legal action against Trudeau’s government over a federal carbon tax and pipeline regulation, dismissed Manning’s implied threat.
"Threatening to leave the country because you don't get your desired electoral outcome is counterproductive and unpatriotic," said Kenney, speaking to reporters at an April conference of grassroots Conservatives. "And I don't think it's something that should be thrown around."
Kenney emphasized that central Canadian political elites should not dismiss the legitimate grievances expressed by those in the West, particularly concerning their energy industry.
Kenney's successor, Danielle Smith, has put forth nine demands for any party that wins the election, primarily aimed at revitalizing the oil and gas sector.
"I provided a specific list of demands the next prime minister, regardless of who that is, must address within the first six months of their term to avoid an unprecedented national unity crisis," she remarked in March after meeting Carney in Edmonton.
What do the polls indicate? The Angus Reid Institute recently found significant, though not overwhelming, support for Alberta's potential departure from Canada, with 25 percent of respondents stating they would vote to leave regardless of the election outcome. This figure rises to 30 percent in the event of a Liberal victory.
The polling reflects the growing sentiment of western alienation. In 2016, 45 percent of Albertans felt respected by the rest of the country; this year, that number has fallen to only 24 percent.
Jared Wesley, a professor at the University of Alberta and an expert on the evolving identities of the region, suggests that the core of separatists in Alberta is likely much smaller. His research indicates that only about one in ten residents would support leaving Canada, and most of them do not expect Alberta to successfully separate.
"They're venting frustration. It’s a protest vote. It’s not really got a lot of meat behind it," Wesley noted. "It's absolutely an elite movement driven by folks that have an interest in ginning up separatist support."
According to Wesley, their ultimate aim could simply be to leverage demands from Ottawa for more favorable treatment, particularly concerning the oil and gas industry.
Sen. Paula Simons, a former longtime journalist in Alberta and now a member of the Independent Senators Group, stated that this scenario is not new to the province.
"This is not a new phenomenon in this province," she said. "It's a bit like mosquitoes that go dormant in dry summers, then they come out again when it rains. This is a prairie cyclical problem, and it happens when people in Alberta are feeling aggrieved."
Simons recognized that the feelings of alienation are not unfounded, pointing to the underrepresentation of Westerners in the Senate. The four western provinces collectively hold 24 Senate seats, while Ontario and Quebec each have 24, and the less populous Maritime provinces also share 24.
"The amount to which the Canadian paradigm favors the center is not imaginary," Simons asserted.
Both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are products of Alberta — Carney hails from Edmonton, while Poilievre is from Calgary.
Carney moved away for his education, first to Harvard and then to Oxford, and has not lived in the province since. However, he began his Liberal Party leadership campaign there earlier this year as part of a strategy to highlight his prairie roots to a country still getting familiar with him.
Following Carney's call for an election on April 28, he visited Alberta, where his party aims to secure a few Conservative seats.
Amarjeet Sohi, the mayor of Edmonton on leave, is one of the candidates hoping to win a seat in this election. A former Liberal MP and Cabinet minister who experienced defeat after one term, he understands the frustration of Alberta voters.
Sohi acknowledges that some Liberal voices in Ottawa adopted a "sanctimonious tone" during Trudeau’s initial four years, exacerbating Albertans' "legitimate concerns" about their status.
"There is a sense of alienation, not because they don't love Canada," he stated while campaigning in a suburban area. "There's a sense of lack of respect. Sometimes their contributions are not fully understood or appreciated."
He rarely encounters anyone advocating for Alberta's separation, recalling only one instance when a voter mentioned "Alberta 51" — a reference to the province pursuing statehood.
As election results unfold on Monday, Sen. Simons will closely monitor the Prairie side of the electoral map. "The worst-case scenario for Western alienation is a Carney victory with no seats in the West," she remarked.
While many Canadians have found a sense of patriotism in U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated annexation comments, the sentiment does not apply uniformly across Canada.
Kenney bluntly expressed, "Sadly, in Canada, we can never take national unity for granted."
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
