Effect of U.S. Tariff Increases on Chinese Goods Minimal
China holds a significant edge in the electric vehicle sector, and increasing tariffs is unlikely to hinder the country's progress in this field. The global shift towards renewable energy has created substantial market opportunities, and Chinese electric vehicles are gaining strong acceptance in international markets.
The U.S. government has chosen to increase tariffs on certain products imported from China, aiming to bolster the protection of its strategic industries.
An announcement from the U.S. Trade Representative's Office revealed that some tariff changes took effect on September 27, including a 100 percent tariff on electric vehicles produced in China.
Despite these increased tariffs, their impact will be limited, as China exports only a small number of electric vehicles (EVs) to the U.S. market.
Chinese EVs are primarily exported to ASEAN and EU countries, with a negligible percentage reaching the U.S. According to customs data, only 12,500 Chinese EVs were exported to the U.S. in 2023, accounting for less than 1 percent of total exports.
While the U.S. is imposing higher tariffs to restrict Chinese EVs from entering its market, this measure will not affect China's overall EV export figures. From January to August, China exported 1.31 million EVs, representing a 25 percent increase compared to the previous year.
As EV adoption remains relatively low in major markets, there is significant potential for further expansion, and China's EV exports are anticipated to continue their rapid growth in the years ahead.
**Tariff hikes will not curb China's EV sector dominance**
China has achieved significant technological independence and market strength in the EV sector, boasting core patents and manufacturing technologies, a complete industrial chain, and a mature consumer base. The production and sales of EVs in China have skyrocketed from fewer than 100,000 units in 2014 to over 9 million units in 2023, resulting in a 100-fold increase within a decade and a domestic market penetration exceeding 30 percent. This progress has established the automotive industry as China's second-largest economic pillar.
The U.S. decision to impose high tariffs on Chinese EVs appears to be a shortsighted strategy, as it is unlikely to hinder the growth of China's EV sector or meet the long-term objective of revitalizing U.S. industries.
**Global energy transition presents vast market opportunities; Chinese EVs well received internationally**
As the world shifts towards cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind, the continuous reduction in electricity costs is propelling the EV market. The International Energy Agency projects that global EV sales could surpass 17 million units in 2024, making up over 20 percent of total automobile sales, with expectations of exceeding 50 percent by 2035 as countries promote EV adoption to lower energy consumption, reduce carbon emissions, minimize oil dependency, and enhance energy security.
Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, are implementing plans to promote EVs, which are increasingly recognized globally. Chinese electric vehicles, noted for their quality and cost-effectiveness, enjoy substantial popularity in international markets.
**China actively promotes global expansion of the EV industry, shares new energy dividends worldwide**
In response to U.S. tariffs, China is actively supporting its EV manufacturers in expanding internationally through overseas mergers and acquisitions, investments, and the establishment of production facilities. Companies like BYD, Changan Auto, and GAC Aion have established EV manufacturing bases or sales networks in regions such as Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East.
These companies are collaborating with local firms to localize their operations, which fosters technological advancements and industrial upgrades in host countries while facilitating the global expansion of China's EV industry.
China also plans to enhance Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, develop entrepot trade, diversify exports, and bolster trade promotion efforts. These proactive strategies are designed to help Chinese industries mitigate the adverse effects of the U.S. tariff increases.
Mathilde Moreau contributed to this report for TROIB News