Canada’s Conservatives put Trudeau on notice

OTTAWA, Ont. — Pierre Poilievre is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The seven-term MP was born on Canada's Prairies and represents a riding on the outskirts of the nation's capital. He attracted unusually large crowds to dozens of campaign rallies and unleashed bombastic rhetoric everywhere he went.

Now he has a shot at forming the next government. Ottawa's political bubble is obsessed with one question: Where exactly will Poilievre lead a Conservative movement hell-bent on booting Justin Trudeau's Liberals from power?

One thing is clear: Everybody is spoiling for a fight in 2025, if not before.

"This is the battle that Conservatives want, and it's the battle that Liberals want," Gary Keller, a vice-president at StrategyCorp and seasoned vet of Tory politics, tells POLITICO.

At a recent Cabinet retreat, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly reinforced to ministers that he intends to fight another campaign — a rare chance to win four in a row only accomplished twice in Canadian history.

Whispers among restless Liberal staffers on Parliament Hill about succession planning have quieted. Now it's all about knocking off a fourth-consecutive Tory leader.

But they'll have to beat a Conservative party that is expected to unite behind the 43-year-old Poilievre, an impressive feat of reconciliation after an insult-laden contest.

In the end, Poilievre's victory was decisive.

His campaign claimed to sign up more than 300,000 new party members. When the ballots were counted, he had racked up 68.15 percent of the overall points in a system that assigns 100 points to each of Canada's 338 ridings.

The new leader has amassed a dedicated following since his campaign launch in February, on the heels of former leader Erin O'Toole's ouster by a vote of the party's national caucus.

"Tonight begins the journey to replace an old government that costs you more and delivers you less with a new government that puts you first — your paycheck, your retirement, your home, your country," he told a boisterous crowd.

His team is an experienced group of operatives who cut their teeth in Stephen Harper's government, which lost power in 2015. Others gained valuable experience when Doug Ford rocketed to the premier's office in Ontario.

But most of the voters who delivered the party to Poilievre aren't seasoned politicos. They're disaffected Canadians united by skepticism of career politicians and the institutions that underpin their democracy.

They found their man in Poilievre, now serving his 18th year in office. But as he sets out to build an electoral machine designed to clobber Liberals, will his legions of supporters find their voice in his Conservative Party?

One priority to rule them all

Shakir Chambers, a Tory strategist and principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, predicted Poilievre would maintain a "laser focus" on the economy in his first days as leader.

The new leader was the first to blame Trudeau for exacerbating a national cost-of-living crisis by driving up deficits, over-taxing Canadians and forcing them to take on more debt to cover the basics.

Poilievre has even come up with a name for it: Justinflation.

"By tackling Liberal inflation," he said Saturday, "we'll put you back in control of your life and your money."

It's a winning issue, Chambers said. "His economic message is very relatable, and it's what propelled him to the top. Why would you deviate from that right now, when it's top of mind to Canadians?"

But Poilievre won't be without challenges, says Chambers. Recent polling from Nanos Research has shown "about 70 percent" of Canadians don't support politicians who cozy up to trucker convoys.

"This is not a growth strategy for anyone or any party that wants to try to win a majority, I would say even a minority government," pollster Nik Nanos told CTV News.

When truckers first rolled into Ottawa last January, Poilievre recorded a supportive video on a bridge atop a freeway on the outskirts of the city. “Freedom, not fear,” he shouted over the honking. “Truckers, not Trudeau.”

He later clarified that law-breaking protesters deserve to be condemned, but always supported the convoy's stated goal of ending government-enforced Covid mandates.

This fall, an independent commission will launch public hearings to investigate the government's use of emergency powers during the convoy's protracted occupation of downtown Ottawa — and blockades at several border crossings.

The commission poses a risk for Trudeau's government, which critics say overreached by invoking the Emergencies Act. But the hearings could also put Poilievre on the defensive.

Liberals have carefully clipped a litany of Poilievre's campaign statements, including his insistence on the trail that cryptocurrencies could help Canadians "opt-out" of inflation.

Poilievre has dabbled in far right-wing talking points. He hasn't quite endorsed conspiracy theories that hold the World Economic Forum is planning a hostile takeover of Canadian sovereignty. But he has amassed big crowds in real life — and millions of hits online — by promising never to send a Cabinet minister to the WEF's annual Davos summit.

Liberals will spin that as a dog whistle to conspiracy-minded supporters and donors whose votes could tip an election.

"There's no doubt in my mind the Liberals have kept their powder dry till now," says Chambers. "They're going to unleash a furious campaign against Poilievre."

Seconds after the result was announced, the Liberals published a fiery press release.

"We will stand up and speak out against the reckless policies that Mr. Poilievre has been pushing since the start of his leadership campaign, and during his nearly 20-years as a Conservative insider," said a statement attributed to Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Quebec MP Rachel Bendayan.

Tory momentum on Poilievre's core message on inflation could also be thwarted by unforeseen events — for instance, a spate of suffocating wildfires that force climate change back to the top of the country's agenda.

Poilievre opposes the Trudeau government's price on carbon, but he didn't release a detailed climate policy during his leadership run. There may be something waiting in the wings. A source familiar with the leader's policy team tells POLITICO the campaign developed dozens of policy proposals that never saw the light of day.

What matters most to the Tory flock now is unity — among the national caucus, strategists who relay key messages to journalists, operatives who spent months undermining each other's candidate, and party members who ranked Poilievre from first to last on their ballots.

Conservative spinners have pivoted to a narrative of togetherness common in the aftermath of fractious leadership campaigns. Just weeks before the result, some anti-Poilievre operatives insisted they'd never campaign for a party led by Poilievre.

By Saturday, they'd changed their tune and started preaching unity.

“The Conservative party needs to be united behind our next leader because our country needs unity more than ever," O'Toole said in a parting video message broadcast on Saturday. "Where there is unity, there is always victory."

Poilievre thanked all of his opponents for running and reserved special mention for Charest, a rival he'd slammed throughout the campaign as a tax-and-spend Liberal. In victory, Poilievre thanked Charest for his service to Canada during Quebec's 1995 secession referendum.

"You stood with courage and passion," said Poilievre, who also lauded Charest's wife, Michèle Dionne, for making "countless invisible sacrifices" during her husband's public life.

Poilievre's conciliatory rhetoric reinforced the unity narrative. "To supporters of all of these fine candidates, I open my arms to you. Now, today, we are one party serving one country," he said.

Charest returned the favor on Twitter. "You deserve a clean slate and the opportunity to unite the membership," he wrote. "We must end the internal mudslinging. Only Liberals benefit from a divided (Conservative Party)."

Protect the leader

Poilievre's time is now his most important resource, says Keller. He says he’d advise the campaign team to shield Poilievre from an onslaught of requests from caucus members, operatives, donors and stakeholders eager for face time.

"You've got to cut out the noise and preserve the leader's sanity and time," says Keller, who witnessed the frenzied first few days after Andrew Scheer won the leadership in 2017. "If you don't do that, people will just steal that time."

Sixty-two MPs endorsed Poilievre. They'll want a word with their new boss. Add up all the donors and volunteers who need thanking, and there'd be no time left in the day to think about major decisions.

Poilievre will need to name a shadow Cabinet and start hiring staff for the Office of the Leader of the Opposition. The next regular sitting of the House is set for Sept. 19.