Biden support slips in deep blue New York: ‘We’re a battleground state now’

NEW YORK — President Joe Biden has a new problem: a competitive race in deep blue New York.

Elected officials, union leaders, and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago. They’re so worried they’ve been trying to convince the Biden team to pour resources into New York to shore up his campaign and boost Democrats running in a half-dozen swing districts that could determine control of the House.

Biden aides have not focused on New York, committing no significant resources to a state where they expect the president to easily win all 28 electoral college votes in November.

But the warning signs are impossible to ignore and have been building over the past year. Two private polls conducted in a swing New York House district and reviewed by POLITICO — one in September and another in March — found former President Donald Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie. And public polls over the last four months found Biden’s lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York — an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.

“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”

Biden, whose campaign is in free fall after a shambling debate performance last month, is yet to pay much attention to the state beyond high-dollar fundraisers. He was most recently in New York on June 29 to raise money in the Hamptons and attend a dedication ceremony for the Stonewall Inn Visitor Center in Manhattan a day earlier. He has been appearing in traditional battleground states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over the weekend, as the 81-year-old tries to silence doubts over his age and mental acuity.

Now Democrats want Biden to get serious about the Empire State as they warn of the existential crisis to democracy posed by Trump’s potential return to the White House, according to interviews with 10 Democratic Party officials, consultants, and political leaders.

A contested race in New York exacerbates Biden’s reelection troubles as members of his party continue to call for him to step aside or question his fitness for office — including three members of the state’s House delegation. And it would cost him time and money he’d rather be spending on the country’s six swing states, siphoning millions of dollars to play in the costliest media market in the country.

“The money that needs to be spent here will be subtracted from other areas he’s going to lose,” former Democratic New York Gov. David Paterson said.

Top statewide Democrats — including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have signaled shared public support for Biden. Schumer, though, has been sparing in his public comments about Biden since the president’s debate performance nearly two weeks ago.

“As I’ve said before, I’m with Joe,” Schumer said Tuesday at his weekly press conference, repeating a version of a line he’d used previously.

Schumer and Jeffries are under intense pressure this week as lawmakers return to the Capitol and Democrats try to find unity. Schumer declined Tuesday to say whether he agreed with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), another member of Democratic leadership, that Biden “must do more” to reassure Democrats and needs to be “a much more forceful and energetic candidate on the campaign trail in the very near future.”

Democrats have been on a winning streak in New York since 2006 and control all levers of power in Albany. A GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won New York since Ronald Reagan’s rout of Walter Mondale in 1984. But GOP candidates flipped enough suburban House seats to help their party maintain control of the chamber two years ago, as a Republican challenger to Gov. Kathy Hochul lost by a relatively modest 6 points.

State party leaders have publicly backed Biden and expect he will remain in the race — none more than Hochul. Still, support for Biden among New York Democrats behind closed doors is flagging. Reps. Jerry Nadler and Joe Morelle in a conference call with fellow House Democrats backed a change at the top of the ticket. Nadler publicly has said he’s supporting Biden; Morelle did not return a call seeking comment.

A weak Biden would spell trouble for down-ballot Democrats running in battleground House districts in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island — particularly those who rely on increased turnout generated during a presidential election year.

“The implications for control of Congress are real enough that I think this needs more national attention,” Levine said.

Fear among some Democrats has become so heightened that they are advising their party’s candidates to all but disavow Biden on the campaign trail in order to bolster their own candidacies. And messaging on abortion rights or the threat Trump could pose to democracy — issues expected to play to Biden’s advantage — may not be enough on their own, former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said.

“If I’m a Democrat in some of these suburban races, I’d run the hell away from Joe Biden,” she said.

And one high-level New York Democrat, granted anonymity to speak bluntly about the political crisis surrounding the president, said the party’s House candidates need to distance themselves from the top of the ticket.

“It’s never been more important for a Democratic House member to focus on building their own local brand and to run on that,” the person said. “Biden isn’t going to be handing out coattails no matter what. He’s only got anchors.”

One of Biden’s New York labor allies has had trouble convincing some of his rank-and-file members to vote for the president despite the union’s endorsement.

“There are going to be members, we recognize, who will never be convinced that Joe Biden is the next president,” state Building and Construction Trades Council President Gary LaBarbera said. “This is a very unique set of circumstances with Donald Trump. There are people who are just not going to change their minds.”

Nevertheless, the Cook Political Report still lists New York as solidly Democratic, and The Hill puts his chances of winning the state at 98 percent.

Misgivings among Democrats over Biden’s waning support in New York go beyond the broader questions over his advanced age. Public polls show Democrats’ troubles in the state stem from independent voters, who are more likely to side with Republicans in their assessment of the president.

The closely watched Siena College poll in June found Biden with an 8-point advantage over Trump. The same poll found only 28 percent of voters not enrolled in a major party supported Biden’s reelection, and 71 percent of them disapproved of the job Biden is doing.

Biden’s support has declined since the winter, when he led Trump by 12 points in a February survey, according to the poll.

The public survey has matched the polling of labor groups, according to an official with one union who was granted anonymity to discuss the closely held data. The poll by the union in June found a nearly identical result for Biden.

“We were definitely alarmed at how bad he’s doing statewide,” the person said.

Many of the troubles facing Biden in New York stem from a broader problem Democrats have in the state on issues GOP candidates have successfully seized in the last several years.

Driven by the flood of migrants into New York City, high taxes, and lingering perceptions of a crime wave, Republicans feel emboldened and believe they will be able to keep all five House seats they are contesting this year — and come within striking distance of Trump winning the state’s 28 electoral votes.

The Biden campaign declined to comment on the concerns from Democrats in New York, referring POLITICO to the state Democratic Party. Spokesperson Jen Goodman said Biden would win because voters in the state don’t want Trump in the White House again.

“Time and again New Yorkers have rejected Donald Trump,” Goodman said. “He’s the most unpopular person in New York politics, and there is no doubt that voters will once again turn out for President Biden in November.”

Trump, 78, has his own liabilities, especially with suburban voters and women. Democrats expect to run an aggressive campaign this fall that revolves around the threat Trump poses to reproductive rights — even in a state with some of the strongest abortion laws on the books. His favorability among New Yorkers stands at a paltry 37 percent, the Siena survey in June found (Biden is at 42 percent favorable).

There is also the personal baggage Trump brings to the race, including 34 felony convictions in a case brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg that stemmed from paying hush money to a porn star. A New York jury last year separately found Trump liable for sexual abuse and forced him to pay his accuser E. Jean Carroll $5 million.

But Democrats do not believe Trump’s problems alone will make New York a shoo-in for Biden. The president needs to start drawing a contrast with Trump on the principles of democracy, Basil Smikle, a former executive director for the New York Democratic Party, said.

“The [Biden] campaign needs to do a better job of framing the argument that the choice is between a convicted felon and a president who has done a good job,” Smikle said. “It’s alarming they have to do this in New York, a progressive state with a progressive history.”

Despite the stakes, elected officials and political leaders worry Democrats are sleepwalking in New York. And Biden, they argue, has to step in.

“He needs to remind New Yorkers why they should be voting for him,” said Jasmine Gripper, the co-director of the left-leaning Working Families Party. “We’re dealing with voters who are feeling frustrated with both parties, and we just know that leads to low turnout.”

But there is also a split screen effect among Democrats over the trouble Biden faces. The president’s most ardent supporters, his pledged convention delegates from New York, expect to support his re-nomination when the party convenes in Chicago.

“Democrats will come home, and it will be an absolute landslide,” Manhattan Democratic Chair Keith Wright said. “Trump is not in play here.”

Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, a freshman lawmaker whose seat is being targeted by Republicans this November, on Wednesday became the eighth House Democrat to call for Biden to step aside.

“Joe Biden is a patriot but is no longer the best candidate to defeat Trump," Ryan wrote in a post on X after this article published. "For the good of our country, I am asking Joe Biden to step aside — to deliver on his promise to be a bridge to a new generation of leaders."

Republicans concede that Trump, a native New Yorker who built a business empire in the state and was a mainstay in the city’s tabloids long before becoming a national figure, faces a steep uphill climb to win the state. But just a close race in New York is an indication of how successful Trump’s campaign could be nationally with an otherwise deeply polarized electorate.

“Even if he doesn’t win New York and New Jersey,” Staten Island Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis said, “if he comes close, what does that tell you about the rest of the country?”

Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.

Camille Lefevre for TROIB News