Alito said Dobbs would lower the temperature. Instead, it fanned the flames of abortion extremism.

When the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion a year ago, Justice Samuel Alito suggested that returning the issue to lawmakers might alleviate extremism on both sides of the issue.

Roe v. Wade and other rulings protecting abortion, Alito wrote, had “enflamed debate,” “deepened division,” and prevented a “national settlement of the abortion issue.”

But one year later, abortion-related crime seems to be on the rise.

The Justice Department is prosecuting a record number of abortion opponents with abortion-related crimes, including arson and clinic blockades, according to data from the Prosecution Project, a nonpartisan organization that tracks and analyzes federal criminal cases related to political violence.

In the year since the Dobbs decision, at least 30 abortion opponents have been charged federally with such crimes — a dramatic increase from just four people who were charged in 2021. The 30 post-Dobbs federal defendants represent nearly a third of all people charged with abortion-related federal crimes over the past three decades, according to the project’s data.

At the same time — and perhaps for the first time — DOJ has also charged a few supporters of abortion rights with some of the same conduct that was traditionally associated with the anti-abortion fringe. Before this year, the Prosecution Project (which is sponsored financially by the Peace and Justice Studies Association at Georgetown University) found zero federal abortion-related charges against abortion rights advocates. But since last June, six supporters of abortion rights have been charged. One was accused of firebombing an anti-abortion group. Four were accused of vandalism. And one allegedly tried to assassinate Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

The vast majority of federal prosecutions identified by the Prosecution Project involve crimes against abortion providers. Yet the FBI says that most of its abortion-related domestic terrorism probes involve crimes against anti-abortion groups.

Some Republicans argue this apparent disparity between investigations and charges means federal prosecutors are being more aggressive about prosecuting extremism on the right.

“There’s a double standard at the Justice Department,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the head of the House Judiciary Committee, told POLITICO. “I don’t mean to be saying the same thing we always say, but it further confirms there’s a double standard.”

But some experts say the comparatively large number of prosecutions of abortion foes rightly reflects the greatest threats. Rita Katz, the head of SITE Intelligence Group, made that case. Her group tracks terrorism threats and shares information with law enforcement agencies.

“For the far right, the Roe v. Wade overturn was never a signal to sit back and bask in victory,” she told POLITICO. “It was a green light to inject more vigilantism and violence into their culture wars, which is why it seems they are carrying out more anti-abortion attacks now than they did pre-Dobbs, per these numbers. They believe they can do whatever they want now.”

Attacks unfold

On May 3, 2022, POLITICO reported that the Supreme Court had voted privately to overturn Roe v. Wade. The disclosure sparked immediate outcry and public protests from abortion rights supporters — and, in some corners, more militant acts. Within days, dozens of so-called crisis pregnancy centers — organizations that oppose abortion and have been criticized for misleading pregnant patients — were sprayed with graffiti reading some version of the message, “If abortion isn’t safe, then you aren’t either.” A group known as Jane’s Revenge — which The Atlantic called both “a pro-abortion rights group” and “a prominent bogeyman on social media” — took credit for a spate of attacks.

At least seven buildings housing these centers were targeted for arson or firebombing, according to the FBI, which offered $25,000 for information leading to identification of any suspects. Arsonists also targeted at least two other buildings housing anti-abortion political groups, according to the same FBI material.

Decapitated animal bodies were left outside one anti-abortion pregnancy center in Orlando, according to a local report. And in a particularly ugly episode, a 75-year-old man in Michigan shot an 84-year-old woman who came to his door advocating against abortion rights, as the Associated Press detailed. The woman received medical treatment, and the man was sentenced to 100 hours of community service.

Meanwhile, attacks on abortion facilities — in a decades-long pattern of violence — continued. Just last week, the Justice Department charged two men, including an active-duty Marine, with firebombing a California Planned Parenthood clinic.

The National Abortion Federation, which represents abortion providers, has tracked attacks on its members’ facilities for decades. Its 2022 report showed that burglaries tripled in the year Dobbs was decided: from 13 in 2021 to 43 in 2022. Since the group started tracking burglaries in 1977, only 2016 had more, with 66. Stalking also skyrocketed, from 28 episodes in 2021 to 92 in 2022. There were also four arsons in 2022 (compared with two in 2021 and five in 2020).

Another threat also materialized: “For the first time in more than a decade, facilities reported receiving suspicious envelopes containing a white powdery substance,” the report reads. Abortion providers received four total mailings in 2022, three of which came after the Dobbs news.

In the same stretch of time, some types of anti-abortion crimes dropped. There were fewer than half as many instances of trespassing in 2022 than there were in 2021 — 395 instances, compared to 977. The group attributes this in part to the fact that dozens of clinics closed after Dobbs.

Melissa Fowler, the chief program officer at the National Abortion Federation, said anti-abortion activists sometimes use social media while harassing providers.

“We see people livestream themselves invading clinics,” she said. “They use social media to plan invasions, to invite other people to attend, and to boast about their activities. But I think all of it is really part of this environment where people are really emboldened.”

This year, she added, the threats have persisted.

“We know that these activities are continuing and people are being harassed and things are continuing to feel really intense,” she said.

The feds respond

As the threats unfolded in 2022, the FBI opened 28 abortion-related domestic terrorism investigations — more than the four prior years combined, according to the Justice Department. An FBI spokesperson told POLITICO that 70 percent of those probes involve attacks on institutions that oppose abortion rights.

“More than two thirds of the FBI’s FACE Act or abortion-related domestic terrorism assessments and investigations involve some type of offense against a pro-life facility or a religious institution,” the spokesperson said, referring to the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act, a 1994 federal law that protects access to reproductive health facilities.

“At the FBI, the focus is on violence and threats of violence,” the spokesperson added. “The FBI will vigorously pursue investigations into violence or threats of violence, regardless of ideology.”

Most of the Justice Department’s prosecutions charge people for crimes against abortion providers and facilities. At least four people, including the Marine, have faced arson charges for targeting abortion clinics. And more than two dozen people have been charged with violating the FACE Act by blockading the entrances to abortion clinics.

In the wake of the ruling, the Justice Department created a task force focused on protecting abortion rights and access.

“The Dobbs decision was and is devastating for people and communities across this country,” Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta told POLITICO in a statement. “We established the Reproductive Rights Task Force to bring a whole-of-department approach to protecting access to reproductive health care. And we remain committed to utilizing every tool at our disposal to protect reproductive freedoms in the days ahead.”

There’s been a significant change since Dobbs in how the Justice Department prosecutes abortion-related crime: For the first time, DOJ has used the FACE Act — a law previously used only to protect facilities that provide abortions — to prosecute people who vandalized pregnancy centers opposed to abortion. Prosecutors charged four people in Florida with violating the statute by vandalizing several centers.

This new use of the FACE Act came with support from the top of DOJ; Kristen Clarke, the head of the department’s Civil Rights Division, joined a U.S. attorney and a top FBI official to announce the charges.

The move has drawn criticism from people who support abortion rights.

“The history of reproductive healthcare in the US, especially that involving abortion, is a story of undue violence, threats, and intimidation targeting health care workers and volunteers,” said Michael Loadenthal, the head of the Prosecution Project. “Given this history and the need to protect providers, it is concerning to see the FACE Act — designed to ensure safe access to health care — used to prosecute individuals accused of vandalizing a site whose function is to muddy the waters for those seeking to terminate a pregnancy or explore their reproductive health care options.”

Meanwhile, Jordan and other Republicans say the Justice Department isn’t doing nearly enough to combat abortion-related extremism on the left.

“The stark discrepancy between the number of investigations into attacks on pro-life centers and the lack of legal action taken further confirms the bias against pro-lifers at the DOJ and FBI,” Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the vice chair of the House Republican Conference, said.