5 Worldwide Trends Influencing the US Election
Turbulent international occurrences, such as Brexit, frequently serve as indicators for U.S. elections. What might be the event influencing this year's election?
TroibNews 
PARIS — While Americans can often be quite insular, it's important to recognize that our political landscape is influenced by global events.
Eight summers ago, Britain's unexpected decision to leave the European Union foreshadowed another major political upheaval in the United States. The same dissatisfaction with traditional norms, frustration over immigration and globalization, and a visceral appeal from a populist campaign helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency.
So what could be the Brexit of this summer?
I don't see one definitive sign. However, examining the U.S. from an external perspective reveals some intriguing patterns, with five notable trends or events emerging. Two favor Kamala Harris, two are beneficial for Trump, and one remains uncertain.
**Rise of Strong Women**
Female leaders are dominating this summer.
In June, Claudia Sheinbaum defeated another woman in a historic landslide to become Mexico's president. Looking ahead, Japan's ruling party will have a leadership race that could potentially lead to the nation’s first female prime minister, with Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko in the running.
In Europe, the dynamics are shifting. The least effective politicians currently include France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz.
The most formidable? Their first names are Ursula, Kaja, Giorgia, and Mette — with acknowledgment given to a Donald (Poland’s Tusk, more on him later).
Ursula von der Leyen secured a second term last month as head of the European Commission, maintaining and even increasing her support from five years ago. As a mother of seven, the German center-right politician has emerged as an unexpectedly effective crisis manager, having navigated the EU through Covid, a cost-of-living crisis, and the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s first female prime minister, has taken on the role of the EU’s new foreign policy chief, marking her third time in that position. She is known for her staunch stance against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
In Italy and Denmark, Giorgia Meloni and Mette Frederiksen stand out as influential prime ministers from opposing political factions. Both have fortified their domestic support and made their marks on the international stage.
What accounts for this phenomenon? It may be a coincidence, but it’s clear there are more women ascending to high office. Notably, none of these leaders focus on their gender; their parties span the political spectrum, and they project a serious, strong demeanor.
**Advantage: Harris, naturally.**
**American Front of Middle East Conflict**
In contrast, the new wave of female leaders at America's elite universities is facing challenges that differ from those in politics. Last week, Columbia’s Minouche Shafik stepped down, marking the third resignation among Ivy League female leaders amid the conflict in Gaza.
While her reasons for stepping down are somewhat unclear, the overarching message is that the Middle East situation is likely to heat up this fall, impacting American politics.
At the year’s outset, many senior Democrats had hoped Gaza would be less of an issue by the general election, anticipating a reduction in tensions and a calmer domestic political climate.
However, recent events have reignited tensions. Hezbollah and Iran are contemplating retaliatory actions against Israel, while the Israeli military continues its operations in Gaza. Even with Joe Biden empowering Harris, protests have continued unabated. The cultural divisions can be advantageous to Republican narratives surrounding issues like “wokeism” and unchecked antisemitism from the left.
**Advantage: Trump.** Should an attack by Iran threaten Israel and instigate a regional conflict necessitating American intervention, or if a momentous diplomatic breakthrough suggests a resolution, it could consolidate support for the current U.S. administration.
**Joyfully Normal**
The cheerful narrative presented by Harris and Walz — emphasizing “passion and love” — resonates with the positive atmosphere of summer.
The anticipation surrounding the Paris Olympics has uplifted the French spirit, who had become accustomed to a sense of decline and political uncertainty. "Proud to be French," expresses rising left leader Raphael Glucksmann, in contrast to the prevailing negativity from older political figures.
Amid this environment, joy and normalcy are prevailing as counterpoints to the anger and drama associated with current populist leaders. In Poland, Prime Minister Tusk (a notable male leader) has managed to defeat the populist right for a second time in recent months, promoting a sense of competence and stability. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has adopted a similarly low-key approach, resulting in a remarkable victory for the Labor Party.
The pressing question from Europe relates to whether the nationalist/populist wave initiated by Brexit has peaked or is starting to recede. While the center-right performed surprisingly well in June’s European Parliament elections, far-right parties also maintained their ground in countries like the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, and Slovakia.
**Advantage: Slightly Harris, based on perception rather than concrete evidence.**
**Still Many Angry, Unhappy People**
However, Starmer’s initial successes were short-lived. Recent riots across the UK have highlighted the frustrations surrounding immigration, ignited by misinformation surrounding the individual responsible for the tragic deaths of three young girls.
The Labour government has faced intense backlash from the far right, presenting a more complicated scenario compared to what Biden’s camp has experienced from the left over Gaza. This situation leaves them in a precarious position.
**Advantage: Trump by a significant margin.**
**Ukraine’s August Surprise**
The recent shift in Ukraine's favor during its conflict with Russia is a notable moment that may have PR implications, although its strategic impact remains to be seen.
Ukraine's successful recapture of some territory in Russia’s Kursk province has momentarily altered the narrative surrounding Europe’s most severe conflict since 1945. This success has exposed vulnerabilities within Putin's military and serves as a counter to last year's despair over Ukraine’s failures in its counteroffensive. As they strive to maintain their gains against ongoing Russian aggression, questions loom about the future of both Ukrainian and American standing in the context of this conflict.
Biden’s cautious approach to military support for Ukraine has raised concerns about whether significant progress can be made on the battlefield. Is this recent momentum a fleeting moment or a pivotal point that could foster a resolution acceptable to all parties? The coming weeks hold the answers both for Ukraine and for the American political landscape.
**Advantage: Toss up.** As noted previously, both Harris and Trump have portrayed mixed messages regarding Ukraine, demonstrating a flexibility to adapt their positions.
Alejandro Jose Martinez contributed to this report for TROIB News
Eight summers ago, Britain's unexpected decision to leave the European Union foreshadowed another major political upheaval in the United States. The same dissatisfaction with traditional norms, frustration over immigration and globalization, and a visceral appeal from a populist campaign helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency.
So what could be the Brexit of this summer?
I don't see one definitive sign. However, examining the U.S. from an external perspective reveals some intriguing patterns, with five notable trends or events emerging. Two favor Kamala Harris, two are beneficial for Trump, and one remains uncertain.
**Rise of Strong Women**
Female leaders are dominating this summer.
In June, Claudia Sheinbaum defeated another woman in a historic landslide to become Mexico's president. Looking ahead, Japan's ruling party will have a leadership race that could potentially lead to the nation’s first female prime minister, with Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko in the running.
In Europe, the dynamics are shifting. The least effective politicians currently include France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz.
The most formidable? Their first names are Ursula, Kaja, Giorgia, and Mette — with acknowledgment given to a Donald (Poland’s Tusk, more on him later).
Ursula von der Leyen secured a second term last month as head of the European Commission, maintaining and even increasing her support from five years ago. As a mother of seven, the German center-right politician has emerged as an unexpectedly effective crisis manager, having navigated the EU through Covid, a cost-of-living crisis, and the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s first female prime minister, has taken on the role of the EU’s new foreign policy chief, marking her third time in that position. She is known for her staunch stance against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
In Italy and Denmark, Giorgia Meloni and Mette Frederiksen stand out as influential prime ministers from opposing political factions. Both have fortified their domestic support and made their marks on the international stage.
What accounts for this phenomenon? It may be a coincidence, but it’s clear there are more women ascending to high office. Notably, none of these leaders focus on their gender; their parties span the political spectrum, and they project a serious, strong demeanor.
**Advantage: Harris, naturally.**
**American Front of Middle East Conflict**
In contrast, the new wave of female leaders at America's elite universities is facing challenges that differ from those in politics. Last week, Columbia’s Minouche Shafik stepped down, marking the third resignation among Ivy League female leaders amid the conflict in Gaza.
While her reasons for stepping down are somewhat unclear, the overarching message is that the Middle East situation is likely to heat up this fall, impacting American politics.
At the year’s outset, many senior Democrats had hoped Gaza would be less of an issue by the general election, anticipating a reduction in tensions and a calmer domestic political climate.
However, recent events have reignited tensions. Hezbollah and Iran are contemplating retaliatory actions against Israel, while the Israeli military continues its operations in Gaza. Even with Joe Biden empowering Harris, protests have continued unabated. The cultural divisions can be advantageous to Republican narratives surrounding issues like “wokeism” and unchecked antisemitism from the left.
**Advantage: Trump.** Should an attack by Iran threaten Israel and instigate a regional conflict necessitating American intervention, or if a momentous diplomatic breakthrough suggests a resolution, it could consolidate support for the current U.S. administration.
**Joyfully Normal**
The cheerful narrative presented by Harris and Walz — emphasizing “passion and love” — resonates with the positive atmosphere of summer.
The anticipation surrounding the Paris Olympics has uplifted the French spirit, who had become accustomed to a sense of decline and political uncertainty. "Proud to be French," expresses rising left leader Raphael Glucksmann, in contrast to the prevailing negativity from older political figures.
Amid this environment, joy and normalcy are prevailing as counterpoints to the anger and drama associated with current populist leaders. In Poland, Prime Minister Tusk (a notable male leader) has managed to defeat the populist right for a second time in recent months, promoting a sense of competence and stability. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has adopted a similarly low-key approach, resulting in a remarkable victory for the Labor Party.
The pressing question from Europe relates to whether the nationalist/populist wave initiated by Brexit has peaked or is starting to recede. While the center-right performed surprisingly well in June’s European Parliament elections, far-right parties also maintained their ground in countries like the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, and Slovakia.
**Advantage: Slightly Harris, based on perception rather than concrete evidence.**
**Still Many Angry, Unhappy People**
However, Starmer’s initial successes were short-lived. Recent riots across the UK have highlighted the frustrations surrounding immigration, ignited by misinformation surrounding the individual responsible for the tragic deaths of three young girls.
The Labour government has faced intense backlash from the far right, presenting a more complicated scenario compared to what Biden’s camp has experienced from the left over Gaza. This situation leaves them in a precarious position.
**Advantage: Trump by a significant margin.**
**Ukraine’s August Surprise**
The recent shift in Ukraine's favor during its conflict with Russia is a notable moment that may have PR implications, although its strategic impact remains to be seen.
Ukraine's successful recapture of some territory in Russia’s Kursk province has momentarily altered the narrative surrounding Europe’s most severe conflict since 1945. This success has exposed vulnerabilities within Putin's military and serves as a counter to last year's despair over Ukraine’s failures in its counteroffensive. As they strive to maintain their gains against ongoing Russian aggression, questions loom about the future of both Ukrainian and American standing in the context of this conflict.
Biden’s cautious approach to military support for Ukraine has raised concerns about whether significant progress can be made on the battlefield. Is this recent momentum a fleeting moment or a pivotal point that could foster a resolution acceptable to all parties? The coming weeks hold the answers both for Ukraine and for the American political landscape.
**Advantage: Toss up.** As noted previously, both Harris and Trump have portrayed mixed messages regarding Ukraine, demonstrating a flexibility to adapt their positions.
Alejandro Jose Martinez contributed to this report for TROIB News
