How a Large-Scale Port Worker Strike Could Disrupt the 2024 Election
A prolonged work stoppage has the potential to increase prices and cause delays in the importation of various goods, including automobiles, bananas, and Christmas decorations.
TroibNews 
Ports along the East and Gulf coasts are facing the potential of a dockworkers strike that could harm the U.S. economy just a month before the election, presenting a political dilemma for President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
If Biden intervenes to prevent the strike, similar to his actions two years ago to avert a rail workers' walkout, it may alienate labor voters, particularly as Harris seeks to secure support from blue-collar workers who are pivotal in key swing states. On the other hand, allowing a prolonged work stoppage could hurt consumers, leading to increased prices and delays in imports of various goods like automobiles, bananas, and holiday decorations.
A strike could commence as early as Tuesday if the International Longshoremen’s Association fails to negotiate an agreement with the group of companies that operate at more than a dozen significant ports along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast. The two parties have not yet reached a consensus.
Harold Daggett, the president of the 132-year-old union and a former ally of Biden, stated that he is prepared to push the economy to its limits if the United States Maritime Alliance does not agree to significant wage increases and protections against job automation.
The White House has indicated that Biden will refrain from using his executive authority to stop any ILA strike.
“My advice is to stay out of it,” remarked Marty Walsh, the former Boston mayor and Labor Secretary who played a key role in the Biden administration’s 2022 response to the freight rail labor dispute. “You don’t have to get involved until both sides ask. Encourage both sides to stay in conversation.”
Other Democrats expressed their concerns clearly.
“We gotta find a deal,” said Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, whose state is home to one of the largest ports on the East Coast. “I’m not gonna give ‘em advice about how to do it, but it would be a bad thing for Virginia and for the country to have a strike.”
White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson stated that Biden is urging “all parties to come to the bargaining table.” Senior officials from various departments are communicating this message to the union and USMX members about the importance of negotiating diligently and swiftly.
For Harris, this labor dispute presents a challenge to balance her pro-union positions with the business-friendly economic agenda she has promoted since entering the Democratic presidential race. Although she has gained endorsements from most major private sector unions, she has encountered pushback among some members and from the Teamsters’ national leadership.
Former President Donald Trump may seize the opportunity to capitalize on any economic turmoil resulting from the strike, reinforcing his narrative that the Biden administration has burdened consumers with high prices and supply-chain difficulties. Democrats might attempt to counter Trump’s outreach to working-class voters by highlighting his history on labor issues and his recent remarks regarding firing striking workers.
The campaigns for Harris and Trump declined to comment.
The extent of the economic impact from an ILA strike is hard to assess and will depend on its duration.
The involved ports stretch from New York to Houston and account for over half of the nation’s port capacity, as reported by the Mitre Corporation. The cargo includes substantial weekly volumes of agricultural imports and exports valued at approximately $1.4 billion, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
JPMorgan analysts suggest that the costs from strike-related closures could soar to $5 billion per day, while Container xChange estimates the daily economic impact at around $1 billion. Maersk has already instituted disruption surcharges for cargo processing at East and Gulf Coast terminals.
The extent to which these costs will be passed on to consumers largely hinges on shipping delays and existing inventory levels at retailers, noted Seth Harris, a former acting labor secretary under President Barack Obama, who has advised the Biden administration on economic policies. Recently, JPMorgan Chase analysts indicated that many companies have been accelerating shipments ahead of potential disruptions and redirecting cargo to unaffected West Coast ports.
Seth Harris remarked that he didn’t foresee a rapid rise in prices “unless there is price gouging, and that could very well serve the Vice President’s interests, because that is a central part of her” economic messaging.
Still, prolonged economic disruptions would undoubtedly raise challenging questions about how both Harris and Trump would react in such situations.
While Harris has historically enjoyed labor group support—she led a White House task force on organizing and participated in a picket line with Nevada autoworkers in 2019—her presidential campaign has been adapting to appeal to working-class voters in the Rust Belt, where the election outcome may hinge. She opposes Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel, has held campaign events at Midwest union halls, and has affirmed her strong commitment to be “always a strong supporter of workers and unions.”
However, her campaign has also sought backing from major donors in Silicon Valley and Wall Street, who may not be aligned with Biden administration regulations aimed at extending workplace protections. If the ILA strikes, it may compel her to clarify her “real, specific ties” to pro-labor initiatives and policies, as highlighted by Alí Bustamante, director of the worker power and economic security program at the Roosevelt Institute.
An ILA strike may force her to make essential decisions that signal to the labor community, Bustamante emphasized.
Trump’s allies anticipate that he will leverage the work stoppage to expand his outreach to union voters. Notably, Daggett, who supported Biden in 2020, revealed that he had a “productive” meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago this summer and that he maintains a “long relationship” with the former president.
An ILA strike “will give voters, particularly union voters, yet another reason to want a historically successful dealmaker back in the White House,” predicted Jonathan Berry, a former top Labor Department official under Trump who now leads the law firm Boyden Gray.
Naturally, Trump’s record on organized labor presents a target-rich landscape for Democrats aiming to enhance Harris’s credibility with unionized workers. While his protectionist trade and manufacturing policies have allowed him to attract some blue-collar workers, his first term has limited workers’ organizing capabilities.
The ILA strike could occur just over six weeks after he discussed firing striking workers during a broad interview with Elon Musk, who Trump suggests could play a role in his next administration.
Public support for unions is reportedly at its highest since the mid-1960s, according to Gallup. Should Trump imply that Biden and Harris should intervene in an ILA strike to preserve supply chains, it might undermine his appeal to conservative union voters.
“Trump ran the most vehemently anti-union administration that we’ve seen,” said Steve Rosenthal, a strategist and former political director for the AFL-CIO. “The contrast is clear.”
Contributors to this report include Sam Ogozalek, Ry Rivard, and Mike Lee.
Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News
If Biden intervenes to prevent the strike, similar to his actions two years ago to avert a rail workers' walkout, it may alienate labor voters, particularly as Harris seeks to secure support from blue-collar workers who are pivotal in key swing states. On the other hand, allowing a prolonged work stoppage could hurt consumers, leading to increased prices and delays in imports of various goods like automobiles, bananas, and holiday decorations.
A strike could commence as early as Tuesday if the International Longshoremen’s Association fails to negotiate an agreement with the group of companies that operate at more than a dozen significant ports along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast. The two parties have not yet reached a consensus.
Harold Daggett, the president of the 132-year-old union and a former ally of Biden, stated that he is prepared to push the economy to its limits if the United States Maritime Alliance does not agree to significant wage increases and protections against job automation.
The White House has indicated that Biden will refrain from using his executive authority to stop any ILA strike.
“My advice is to stay out of it,” remarked Marty Walsh, the former Boston mayor and Labor Secretary who played a key role in the Biden administration’s 2022 response to the freight rail labor dispute. “You don’t have to get involved until both sides ask. Encourage both sides to stay in conversation.”
Other Democrats expressed their concerns clearly.
“We gotta find a deal,” said Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, whose state is home to one of the largest ports on the East Coast. “I’m not gonna give ‘em advice about how to do it, but it would be a bad thing for Virginia and for the country to have a strike.”
White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson stated that Biden is urging “all parties to come to the bargaining table.” Senior officials from various departments are communicating this message to the union and USMX members about the importance of negotiating diligently and swiftly.
For Harris, this labor dispute presents a challenge to balance her pro-union positions with the business-friendly economic agenda she has promoted since entering the Democratic presidential race. Although she has gained endorsements from most major private sector unions, she has encountered pushback among some members and from the Teamsters’ national leadership.
Former President Donald Trump may seize the opportunity to capitalize on any economic turmoil resulting from the strike, reinforcing his narrative that the Biden administration has burdened consumers with high prices and supply-chain difficulties. Democrats might attempt to counter Trump’s outreach to working-class voters by highlighting his history on labor issues and his recent remarks regarding firing striking workers.
The campaigns for Harris and Trump declined to comment.
The extent of the economic impact from an ILA strike is hard to assess and will depend on its duration.
The involved ports stretch from New York to Houston and account for over half of the nation’s port capacity, as reported by the Mitre Corporation. The cargo includes substantial weekly volumes of agricultural imports and exports valued at approximately $1.4 billion, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
JPMorgan analysts suggest that the costs from strike-related closures could soar to $5 billion per day, while Container xChange estimates the daily economic impact at around $1 billion. Maersk has already instituted disruption surcharges for cargo processing at East and Gulf Coast terminals.
The extent to which these costs will be passed on to consumers largely hinges on shipping delays and existing inventory levels at retailers, noted Seth Harris, a former acting labor secretary under President Barack Obama, who has advised the Biden administration on economic policies. Recently, JPMorgan Chase analysts indicated that many companies have been accelerating shipments ahead of potential disruptions and redirecting cargo to unaffected West Coast ports.
Seth Harris remarked that he didn’t foresee a rapid rise in prices “unless there is price gouging, and that could very well serve the Vice President’s interests, because that is a central part of her” economic messaging.
Still, prolonged economic disruptions would undoubtedly raise challenging questions about how both Harris and Trump would react in such situations.
While Harris has historically enjoyed labor group support—she led a White House task force on organizing and participated in a picket line with Nevada autoworkers in 2019—her presidential campaign has been adapting to appeal to working-class voters in the Rust Belt, where the election outcome may hinge. She opposes Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel, has held campaign events at Midwest union halls, and has affirmed her strong commitment to be “always a strong supporter of workers and unions.”
However, her campaign has also sought backing from major donors in Silicon Valley and Wall Street, who may not be aligned with Biden administration regulations aimed at extending workplace protections. If the ILA strikes, it may compel her to clarify her “real, specific ties” to pro-labor initiatives and policies, as highlighted by Alí Bustamante, director of the worker power and economic security program at the Roosevelt Institute.
An ILA strike may force her to make essential decisions that signal to the labor community, Bustamante emphasized.
Trump’s allies anticipate that he will leverage the work stoppage to expand his outreach to union voters. Notably, Daggett, who supported Biden in 2020, revealed that he had a “productive” meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago this summer and that he maintains a “long relationship” with the former president.
An ILA strike “will give voters, particularly union voters, yet another reason to want a historically successful dealmaker back in the White House,” predicted Jonathan Berry, a former top Labor Department official under Trump who now leads the law firm Boyden Gray.
Naturally, Trump’s record on organized labor presents a target-rich landscape for Democrats aiming to enhance Harris’s credibility with unionized workers. While his protectionist trade and manufacturing policies have allowed him to attract some blue-collar workers, his first term has limited workers’ organizing capabilities.
The ILA strike could occur just over six weeks after he discussed firing striking workers during a broad interview with Elon Musk, who Trump suggests could play a role in his next administration.
Public support for unions is reportedly at its highest since the mid-1960s, according to Gallup. Should Trump imply that Biden and Harris should intervene in an ILA strike to preserve supply chains, it might undermine his appeal to conservative union voters.
“Trump ran the most vehemently anti-union administration that we’ve seen,” said Steve Rosenthal, a strategist and former political director for the AFL-CIO. “The contrast is clear.”
Contributors to this report include Sam Ogozalek, Ry Rivard, and Mike Lee.
Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News
