Why Wisconsin's Voter Turnout Indicates Major Problems for the GOP at Present
Democrats continue to excel in down-ballot elections, and the outcomes in Wisconsin indicate that the success goes beyond mere turnout.
TroibNews 
Liberal judge Susan Crawford's victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election marked another instance of Democratic overperformance since Donald Trump assumed the presidency. However, the Wisconsin race was notably characterized by a relatively high voter turnout.
Analysis of Tuesday's preliminary results by PMG indicates that Democrats managed to maintain a turnout advantage in this prominent race, despite Elon Musk's financial efforts failing to significantly increase Republican voter turnout in the spring election. This presents a concerning scenario for the GOP, as voting levels were unexpectedly high for a spring election, akin to what one might see during a midterm election, which could bode well for Democrats leading into 2026.
In contrast to the special elections where Democrats have achieved significant upsets earlier this year, the turnout for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race was robust. In two Florida special elections held on the same day, despite Democrats outperforming the presidential results by approximately 16 and 22 points, they still lost in strongly Republican districts, with turnout falling below half of what was seen in November 2024.
In Wisconsin, Crawford’s performance exceeded that of Vice President Kamala Harris in the state by about 10 points, with nearly 70 percent as many ballots cast in this election as in the November election. The turnout in this race was more comparable to the 2022 midterm elections rather than the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, which similarly took place in April and led to a 10-point win for the liberal candidate.
Charles Franklin, head of the Marquette University Law School poll, noted, “Even though Republicans are losing on percentage terms, it does look like their mobilization did succeed, but it's just that it turned out more Democratic voters.” Franklin elaborated, “Republicans did boost lower-propensity Republicans and got a higher turnout than normal, but those higher-propensity Democrats are turning out at a higher rate.”
Indicators of heightened enthusiasm among Democratic strongholds were evident, especially within the party's educated base. In Dane County, which encompasses Madison and the state's leading university, turnout reached 78 percent of 2024 levels, and Crawford enhanced Harris's vote share in this stronghold by about 7 points.
However, Crawford's success was relatively consistent statewide. In counties that Trump had won by at least 15 points last November, she improved on Harris’s vote share by approximately 5 points.
According to Brian Reisinger, a former GOP aide and rural policy expert, Tuesday's results signify, “a sign that the midterm environment is kicking in, which means it’s going to be challenging for the party in power.”
Republican pollster Robert Blizzard referred to the Democrats' win as “not a nothingburger” in Wisconsin but pointed out that their party had similar victories in the 2023 judicial court election, only to see Trump win the state the following year. “It’s a reflection of the differences, now, in the education divide, who higher- and lower-information voters show up for,” Blizzard explained, labeling it as “a trend we’d expect” at this point. Looking ahead to 2026, he added, “one of the challenges Republicans face, and I don’t think this is shocking, is you’ve got to have the Trump base foaming at the mouth to come out and vote.”
The geographic outcomes do not necessarily imply that Democrats convinced conservative or independent voters to back Crawford. Instead, her overperformance in areas won by Trump may suggest that liberal voters were more likely to participate, even in Republican strongholds.
Nonetheless, the widespread overperformance indicates a favorable electoral landscape for Democrats as both parties prepare for the midterms. Top Democrats are taking note of these developments.
“That’s going to restore a lot of hope in folks back home who answered the call: What can we do? We don't want to wait until the midterm elections. We want to have a say in these special elections, or in the upcoming Virginia or New Jersey governor races,” Rep. Lori Trahan, a member of House Democratic leadership, remarked in an interview.
She added, “It’s momentum that we’re going to build on.”
Regarding turnout in Tuesday's elections, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated that it was part of an ongoing trend this year of Democratic overperformance in special elections. “That's the kind of energy that we've been seeing as House Democrats since the beginning of the Trump presidency, despite the efforts by some to project the notion that House Democrats, Senate Democrats, the Democratic Party is cowering,” he said. “We're beating them over and over and over again.”
Ramin Sohrabi for TROIB News
Analysis of Tuesday's preliminary results by PMG indicates that Democrats managed to maintain a turnout advantage in this prominent race, despite Elon Musk's financial efforts failing to significantly increase Republican voter turnout in the spring election. This presents a concerning scenario for the GOP, as voting levels were unexpectedly high for a spring election, akin to what one might see during a midterm election, which could bode well for Democrats leading into 2026.
In contrast to the special elections where Democrats have achieved significant upsets earlier this year, the turnout for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race was robust. In two Florida special elections held on the same day, despite Democrats outperforming the presidential results by approximately 16 and 22 points, they still lost in strongly Republican districts, with turnout falling below half of what was seen in November 2024.
In Wisconsin, Crawford’s performance exceeded that of Vice President Kamala Harris in the state by about 10 points, with nearly 70 percent as many ballots cast in this election as in the November election. The turnout in this race was more comparable to the 2022 midterm elections rather than the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, which similarly took place in April and led to a 10-point win for the liberal candidate.
Charles Franklin, head of the Marquette University Law School poll, noted, “Even though Republicans are losing on percentage terms, it does look like their mobilization did succeed, but it's just that it turned out more Democratic voters.” Franklin elaborated, “Republicans did boost lower-propensity Republicans and got a higher turnout than normal, but those higher-propensity Democrats are turning out at a higher rate.”
Indicators of heightened enthusiasm among Democratic strongholds were evident, especially within the party's educated base. In Dane County, which encompasses Madison and the state's leading university, turnout reached 78 percent of 2024 levels, and Crawford enhanced Harris's vote share in this stronghold by about 7 points.
However, Crawford's success was relatively consistent statewide. In counties that Trump had won by at least 15 points last November, she improved on Harris’s vote share by approximately 5 points.
According to Brian Reisinger, a former GOP aide and rural policy expert, Tuesday's results signify, “a sign that the midterm environment is kicking in, which means it’s going to be challenging for the party in power.”
Republican pollster Robert Blizzard referred to the Democrats' win as “not a nothingburger” in Wisconsin but pointed out that their party had similar victories in the 2023 judicial court election, only to see Trump win the state the following year. “It’s a reflection of the differences, now, in the education divide, who higher- and lower-information voters show up for,” Blizzard explained, labeling it as “a trend we’d expect” at this point. Looking ahead to 2026, he added, “one of the challenges Republicans face, and I don’t think this is shocking, is you’ve got to have the Trump base foaming at the mouth to come out and vote.”
The geographic outcomes do not necessarily imply that Democrats convinced conservative or independent voters to back Crawford. Instead, her overperformance in areas won by Trump may suggest that liberal voters were more likely to participate, even in Republican strongholds.
Nonetheless, the widespread overperformance indicates a favorable electoral landscape for Democrats as both parties prepare for the midterms. Top Democrats are taking note of these developments.
“That’s going to restore a lot of hope in folks back home who answered the call: What can we do? We don't want to wait until the midterm elections. We want to have a say in these special elections, or in the upcoming Virginia or New Jersey governor races,” Rep. Lori Trahan, a member of House Democratic leadership, remarked in an interview.
She added, “It’s momentum that we’re going to build on.”
Regarding turnout in Tuesday's elections, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated that it was part of an ongoing trend this year of Democratic overperformance in special elections. “That's the kind of energy that we've been seeing as House Democrats since the beginning of the Trump presidency, despite the efforts by some to project the notion that House Democrats, Senate Democrats, the Democratic Party is cowering,” he said. “We're beating them over and over and over again.”
Ramin Sohrabi for TROIB News
