What Lies Ahead for MAGA Post-Trump?
Trump's potential path to reelection raises important questions about the future of his political movement. What impact would a second term have on the dynamics and direction of the movement he has inspired?
TroibNews 
TEMPE, Arizona — A tailgate event intended to boost a protégé turned into a vivid display of support for Donald Trump, whose name and image dominated the scene. Banners adorned Republicans’ tables outside the Arizona State University football game, and his likeness appeared on baseball caps, signs, and stickers affixed to tank tops on a sweltering Friday night where dusk temperatures remained around 95 degrees.
The gathering aimed to rally support for Kari Lake, yet it became clear that it was Trump's movement folks were reflecting on, expressing concern about its future.
What will happen to MAGA once Trump — whether after a presidential victory in four years or a loss much sooner — steps aside? Is there anyone capable of filling his shoes?
“I’ve often wondered that,” remarked Terri Seiber, seated beside me on the curb near two porta potties, with a Trump-Vance yard sign in the shadows next to her. “We don’t have anybody in the Republican Party who’s even close.”
She didn’t see Lake as a viable successor. “No, I don’t think so.” Having witnessed Lake’s defeat in the gubernatorial race two years back and knowing she’s trailing in the current Senate race, Seiber expressed doubts. Not even JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, seemed promising to her. “No. He sounds like a real great guy. But Trump, he’s just got that oomph about him.”
Who else could step up?
“It does make me worry,” she shared. “The movement is mostly him.”
My visit to Arizona was centered on exploring not just the upcoming presidential contest but also the post-Trump landscape for MAGA. Given Arizona’s history of electing bold newcomers — from Barry Goldwater and John McCain to Kyrsten Sinema and Jeff Flake — it should hold some answers.
During the MAGA era, few states have seen Republicans redefining themselves so drastically in pursuit of the cause. Arizona was the stage for the absurd “audit” of the 2020 election, and it lent a border-state context for Trump’s anti-migrant rhetoric. Republicans embraced hard-liners in their primaries, leading to significant losses, including flipping both Senate seats and losing a presidential race to Democrats for the first time since 1996. In the following midterms, Lake lost the gubernatorial contest, and Republicans lost in the races for U.S. Senate, state attorney general, and secretary of state.
As the Arizona GOP embraced fringe elements, the stark reality of Trump’s unique appeal became evident. While Trump is narrowly outpolling Vice President Kamala Harris in recent surveys, Lake — once heralded as a leading light of the MAGA movement — is now lagging by around four percentage points behind Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic nominee.
Acknowledging that things were looking “kind of grim” for Lake, Alex Stansberry, vice president of the College Republicans at ASU, boiled it down: “The only person who’s been able to win on the MAGA platform is Trump.”
However, this doesn’t mean the movement is on the decline. Stansberry suggested that MAGA could be “even more powerful” by steering clear of the abortion issue, which has weighed heavily on Republicans since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Carson Carpenter, president of the College Republicans at ASU, speculated that MAGA would persist but with a “different spin” as it is rebranded.
Yet, the challenge lies in the necessity of a charismatic leader, and it’s increasingly clear to rank-and-file members in Arizona and beyond that there is no clear successor to Trump. Sooner or later — perhaps after the upcoming elections, no matter their outcome — the movement will exist without him. Trump himself has expressed uncertainty about running again in 2028, when he'll be 82.
While waiting near Lake’s campaign bus for her arrival, Sydney Gilliland, president of ASU’s chapter of the conservative student group Turning Point USA, suggested this could be a positive development. “Too many people are obsessed with MAGA,” she said, explaining that for many young Republicans and independents, Trump and MAGA have been the only norms they’ve known.
“We’ve been listening to Trump since 2016,” she shared. “I was in middle school. Now I’m graduating from college.” Gilliland expressed enthusiasm for new leadership and indicated she was looking forward to “2028” rather than the upcoming presidential contest.
However, her mother, Lisa Gilliland, who stood alongside her, recognized the sparse turnout for newer figures like Lake.
“This isn’t much of a turnout,” she observed. “After Trump, I think we’re in trouble.”
Among the potential successors to Trump, JD Vance is often labeled the “heir apparent” or “front-runner to be the president after Donald Trump.” His stock rose somewhat following a solid performance in the vice presidential debate, yet approval ratings remain low. Even supporters of Vance winced at memories of his clumsy interaction at a donut shop. Typically, GOP vice presidents struggle to transition to the presidency. Vance might look to Sarah Palin or Dan Quayle for insight, depending on Trump’s fate.
What about others within the MAGA fold?
Ron DeSantis, once seen as a frontrunner, has faced backlash from staunch MAGA supporters for challenging Trump. Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, last garnered attention for controversial antics, while Lake, once celebrated as “Trump in a dress,” is struggling after her gubernatorial defeat and faltering Senate campaign.
The following day, I attended a meet-and-greet for Lake at HitSquad Ninja Gym. Children played while a few supporters gathered around tables set for a birthday celebration.
Conversations revealed varying preferences for emerging leaders: Charlie Kirk of Turning Point, a prediction that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might be nominated in 2028, and even an appreciation for Sen. Mitt Romney. Throughout the visit, names like DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tucker Carlson, Lara Trump, Candace Owens, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump were often mentioned.
One former Trump adviser, who requested anonymity, speculated, “there's somebody who is going to be able to pick up the MAGA flag and put a much better face on it … without it being so harsh and angry and hateful, without it always sounding so asshole-ish.”
However, no clear consensus emerged from discussions at HitSquad Ninja Gym. Concern about the movement's future was palpable.
“I’m scared to death about it,” Larry Schroeder admitted, having brought his children along. “I hope we can find somebody who’s going to be able to fill these shoes.”
When asked who that might be, he replied, “I can’t think of anybody at the moment.”
The uncertainty looms large, echoing past experiences where conservative movements have faltered. Arizona is historically a state where such movements can rise and fall dramatically — it birthed Goldwater, a figure pivotal to mobilizing conservative forces, before his humiliating loss in 1964 and later embodied the kind of movements that eventually dissipate, like the Tea Party.
“These boomlets kind of come and go,” noted Sal Russo, a former aide to Ronald Reagan and co-founder of the Tea Party Express. “They all come and go.”
For traditional Republicans, the comparison raises cautionary thoughts about MAGA's longevity.
In a conversation one afternoon, Bill Gates, a Republican Maricopa County supervisor known for combatting election disinformation, pointed out that Trump embodies what he called an “anti” politician.
And, he added, “If you’re an anti-person, that doesn’t build a long-lasting movement, because eventually, people want to be for something.”
Barrett Marson, an anti-Trump Republican strategist, remarked on Trump’s celebrity-like appeal. He said he's hopeful about MAGA’s gradual decline, attributing its strength more to identity than strict Republican policies.
Over dinner, he sipped iced tea.
“Donald Trump, he’s a singular figure,” he said. “No one can emulate him. No one can imitate him.”
Reflecting on MAGA, Marson concluded, “The fever’s got to break.”
Though the fever hasn’t yet broken — as seen in Trump's polling after losing Arizona in 2020, where he currently holds a narrow lead — his rallies still draw massive crowds. When he visited Prescott Valley recently, the enthusiasm was palpable, with attendees shouting slogans like “U-S-A!” and “Trump, Trump, Trump.”
Perhaps they’ll echo his name for years to come, akin to the reverence Republicans show toward Reagan today. John Speer opined that MAGA represents “a principle. It’s a belief. So, it won’t die.”
Yet, many in attendance struggled to envision the GOP landscape without Trump on the ballot.
“There isn’t any politician who can draw a crowd like this,” Speer said. Another attendee affirmed, “Not even if Jesus Christ were to show up today.”
As crowds entered the arena with treats in hand, they erupted upon seeing Trump take the stage.
“I love you!” one supporter shouted.
Another, standing behind me, echoed, “We need you!” referring to Trump during his remarks regarding Harris, adding, “We do need to bring hanging back.”
One attendee reflected on the evolving nature of MAGA, uncertain about distinguishing genuine supporters from opportunists because it has grown so vast. She speculated, “I think the Trump train will dwindle. A lot of people are in it for the hype.” This could lead to a smaller, more committed faction willing to do whatever it takes to support the movement.
Many are drawn to Trump’s rallies for almost concert-like experiences.
This attachment might complicate MAGA’s ability to replace him. I encountered tables scattered outside the arena filled with Trump merchandise, hats, buttons, T-shirts, and even unusual items like switchblades.
Bill Bailey, who traffics Trump merchandise at rallies nationwide, expressed hope that a successor could fill Trump’s role — potentially Vance. Nevertheless, he raised concerns about internal divisions post-Trump.
“We had the Tea Party. It disintegrated,” he reflected.
He expressed worry, saying, “I’m worried it will fracture. … Not having the right leader, it could totally fall apart.” Bailey anticipated that even after Trump’s candidacy or presidency, his merchandise would continue to outsell others.
“Oh yeah, yeah,” he said. “You put the Trump name on anything, and I can sell it for you.”
For now, Trump remains pivotal. As he wrapped up a rally with a crowd watching on an outdoor screen, Phil and Gabrielle Corbally watched intently from their lawn chairs.
Phil said that even after his presidency or potential candidacy, Trump would remain a significant party leader.
“Donald Trump runs the show,” he stated, with Gabrielle nodding in agreement.
But with Trump now at 78, his time is finite. The pressing inquiry looms: who might succeed him?
“Not that I’ve heard of,” Gabrielle said, letting out a sigh. “We’ve got a lot of praying to do.”
Frederick R Cook for TROIB News
The gathering aimed to rally support for Kari Lake, yet it became clear that it was Trump's movement folks were reflecting on, expressing concern about its future.
What will happen to MAGA once Trump — whether after a presidential victory in four years or a loss much sooner — steps aside? Is there anyone capable of filling his shoes?
“I’ve often wondered that,” remarked Terri Seiber, seated beside me on the curb near two porta potties, with a Trump-Vance yard sign in the shadows next to her. “We don’t have anybody in the Republican Party who’s even close.”
She didn’t see Lake as a viable successor. “No, I don’t think so.” Having witnessed Lake’s defeat in the gubernatorial race two years back and knowing she’s trailing in the current Senate race, Seiber expressed doubts. Not even JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, seemed promising to her. “No. He sounds like a real great guy. But Trump, he’s just got that oomph about him.”
Who else could step up?
“It does make me worry,” she shared. “The movement is mostly him.”
My visit to Arizona was centered on exploring not just the upcoming presidential contest but also the post-Trump landscape for MAGA. Given Arizona’s history of electing bold newcomers — from Barry Goldwater and John McCain to Kyrsten Sinema and Jeff Flake — it should hold some answers.
During the MAGA era, few states have seen Republicans redefining themselves so drastically in pursuit of the cause. Arizona was the stage for the absurd “audit” of the 2020 election, and it lent a border-state context for Trump’s anti-migrant rhetoric. Republicans embraced hard-liners in their primaries, leading to significant losses, including flipping both Senate seats and losing a presidential race to Democrats for the first time since 1996. In the following midterms, Lake lost the gubernatorial contest, and Republicans lost in the races for U.S. Senate, state attorney general, and secretary of state.
As the Arizona GOP embraced fringe elements, the stark reality of Trump’s unique appeal became evident. While Trump is narrowly outpolling Vice President Kamala Harris in recent surveys, Lake — once heralded as a leading light of the MAGA movement — is now lagging by around four percentage points behind Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic nominee.
Acknowledging that things were looking “kind of grim” for Lake, Alex Stansberry, vice president of the College Republicans at ASU, boiled it down: “The only person who’s been able to win on the MAGA platform is Trump.”
However, this doesn’t mean the movement is on the decline. Stansberry suggested that MAGA could be “even more powerful” by steering clear of the abortion issue, which has weighed heavily on Republicans since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Carson Carpenter, president of the College Republicans at ASU, speculated that MAGA would persist but with a “different spin” as it is rebranded.
Yet, the challenge lies in the necessity of a charismatic leader, and it’s increasingly clear to rank-and-file members in Arizona and beyond that there is no clear successor to Trump. Sooner or later — perhaps after the upcoming elections, no matter their outcome — the movement will exist without him. Trump himself has expressed uncertainty about running again in 2028, when he'll be 82.
While waiting near Lake’s campaign bus for her arrival, Sydney Gilliland, president of ASU’s chapter of the conservative student group Turning Point USA, suggested this could be a positive development. “Too many people are obsessed with MAGA,” she said, explaining that for many young Republicans and independents, Trump and MAGA have been the only norms they’ve known.
“We’ve been listening to Trump since 2016,” she shared. “I was in middle school. Now I’m graduating from college.” Gilliland expressed enthusiasm for new leadership and indicated she was looking forward to “2028” rather than the upcoming presidential contest.
However, her mother, Lisa Gilliland, who stood alongside her, recognized the sparse turnout for newer figures like Lake.
“This isn’t much of a turnout,” she observed. “After Trump, I think we’re in trouble.”
Among the potential successors to Trump, JD Vance is often labeled the “heir apparent” or “front-runner to be the president after Donald Trump.” His stock rose somewhat following a solid performance in the vice presidential debate, yet approval ratings remain low. Even supporters of Vance winced at memories of his clumsy interaction at a donut shop. Typically, GOP vice presidents struggle to transition to the presidency. Vance might look to Sarah Palin or Dan Quayle for insight, depending on Trump’s fate.
What about others within the MAGA fold?
Ron DeSantis, once seen as a frontrunner, has faced backlash from staunch MAGA supporters for challenging Trump. Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, last garnered attention for controversial antics, while Lake, once celebrated as “Trump in a dress,” is struggling after her gubernatorial defeat and faltering Senate campaign.
The following day, I attended a meet-and-greet for Lake at HitSquad Ninja Gym. Children played while a few supporters gathered around tables set for a birthday celebration.
Conversations revealed varying preferences for emerging leaders: Charlie Kirk of Turning Point, a prediction that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might be nominated in 2028, and even an appreciation for Sen. Mitt Romney. Throughout the visit, names like DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tucker Carlson, Lara Trump, Candace Owens, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump were often mentioned.
One former Trump adviser, who requested anonymity, speculated, “there's somebody who is going to be able to pick up the MAGA flag and put a much better face on it … without it being so harsh and angry and hateful, without it always sounding so asshole-ish.”
However, no clear consensus emerged from discussions at HitSquad Ninja Gym. Concern about the movement's future was palpable.
“I’m scared to death about it,” Larry Schroeder admitted, having brought his children along. “I hope we can find somebody who’s going to be able to fill these shoes.”
When asked who that might be, he replied, “I can’t think of anybody at the moment.”
The uncertainty looms large, echoing past experiences where conservative movements have faltered. Arizona is historically a state where such movements can rise and fall dramatically — it birthed Goldwater, a figure pivotal to mobilizing conservative forces, before his humiliating loss in 1964 and later embodied the kind of movements that eventually dissipate, like the Tea Party.
“These boomlets kind of come and go,” noted Sal Russo, a former aide to Ronald Reagan and co-founder of the Tea Party Express. “They all come and go.”
For traditional Republicans, the comparison raises cautionary thoughts about MAGA's longevity.
In a conversation one afternoon, Bill Gates, a Republican Maricopa County supervisor known for combatting election disinformation, pointed out that Trump embodies what he called an “anti” politician.
And, he added, “If you’re an anti-person, that doesn’t build a long-lasting movement, because eventually, people want to be for something.”
Barrett Marson, an anti-Trump Republican strategist, remarked on Trump’s celebrity-like appeal. He said he's hopeful about MAGA’s gradual decline, attributing its strength more to identity than strict Republican policies.
Over dinner, he sipped iced tea.
“Donald Trump, he’s a singular figure,” he said. “No one can emulate him. No one can imitate him.”
Reflecting on MAGA, Marson concluded, “The fever’s got to break.”
Though the fever hasn’t yet broken — as seen in Trump's polling after losing Arizona in 2020, where he currently holds a narrow lead — his rallies still draw massive crowds. When he visited Prescott Valley recently, the enthusiasm was palpable, with attendees shouting slogans like “U-S-A!” and “Trump, Trump, Trump.”
Perhaps they’ll echo his name for years to come, akin to the reverence Republicans show toward Reagan today. John Speer opined that MAGA represents “a principle. It’s a belief. So, it won’t die.”
Yet, many in attendance struggled to envision the GOP landscape without Trump on the ballot.
“There isn’t any politician who can draw a crowd like this,” Speer said. Another attendee affirmed, “Not even if Jesus Christ were to show up today.”
As crowds entered the arena with treats in hand, they erupted upon seeing Trump take the stage.
“I love you!” one supporter shouted.
Another, standing behind me, echoed, “We need you!” referring to Trump during his remarks regarding Harris, adding, “We do need to bring hanging back.”
One attendee reflected on the evolving nature of MAGA, uncertain about distinguishing genuine supporters from opportunists because it has grown so vast. She speculated, “I think the Trump train will dwindle. A lot of people are in it for the hype.” This could lead to a smaller, more committed faction willing to do whatever it takes to support the movement.
Many are drawn to Trump’s rallies for almost concert-like experiences.
This attachment might complicate MAGA’s ability to replace him. I encountered tables scattered outside the arena filled with Trump merchandise, hats, buttons, T-shirts, and even unusual items like switchblades.
Bill Bailey, who traffics Trump merchandise at rallies nationwide, expressed hope that a successor could fill Trump’s role — potentially Vance. Nevertheless, he raised concerns about internal divisions post-Trump.
“We had the Tea Party. It disintegrated,” he reflected.
He expressed worry, saying, “I’m worried it will fracture. … Not having the right leader, it could totally fall apart.” Bailey anticipated that even after Trump’s candidacy or presidency, his merchandise would continue to outsell others.
“Oh yeah, yeah,” he said. “You put the Trump name on anything, and I can sell it for you.”
For now, Trump remains pivotal. As he wrapped up a rally with a crowd watching on an outdoor screen, Phil and Gabrielle Corbally watched intently from their lawn chairs.
Phil said that even after his presidency or potential candidacy, Trump would remain a significant party leader.
“Donald Trump runs the show,” he stated, with Gabrielle nodding in agreement.
But with Trump now at 78, his time is finite. The pressing inquiry looms: who might succeed him?
“Not that I’ve heard of,” Gabrielle said, letting out a sigh. “We’ve got a lot of praying to do.”
Frederick R Cook for TROIB News
