Unpacking US-Ukraine minerals agreement: 'America First' strategy for resource dominance
Exploring the US-Ukraine minerals agreement reveals a strategic push for resource management that aligns with the "America First" agenda. The deal aims to strengthen the United States' influence over critical minerals while supporting Ukraine amidst geopolitical tensions.
TroibNews 
Editor's note: Liu Xu is the deputy director of the Institute for Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CN. It has been translated from Chinese and edited for brevity and clarity.
The recent meeting between the leaders of the US and Ukraine concluded unexpectedly. While no mineral deal was finalized, both parties left open the possibility for further discussions. This potential mineral deal is central to US efforts in mediating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, signaling a significant realignment in US foreign policy that prioritizes the control of resources and economic interests. With reactions from the European Union and Russia, it is conceivable that this mineral agreement could develop into bilateral or even multilateral arrangements involving additional nations.
The US-Ukraine mineral deal reflects the "America First" agenda and the strategic objectives tied to "Make America Great Again." The recent approach to Ukraine under the Trump administration indicates a belief that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily a bilateral issue, advocating for a US withdrawal while seeking to recuperate previous investments in military and economic aid to Ukraine during the Biden administration. For Ukraine, which continues to grapple with the effects of war, its underground resources represent a vital opportunity to address its debts. The extraction and processing of these resources, categorized as bulk commodities with inelastic demand, could yield a consistent revenue stream. By focusing on Ukraine's underground assets, the US aims not only for financial returns but also seeks to exert de facto control over these critical resources.
Rich in "critical minerals," Ukraine possesses essential raw materials vital for advanced manufacturing sectors, including semiconductors, electric vehicles, battery production, wind power, and photovoltaic equipment. Controlling the extraction and processing of these minerals significantly impacts a nation's standing in the global economy. The US relies entirely on imports for 12 of the 50 critical minerals identified by the US Geological Survey, and is over 50 percent dependent on imports for an additional 29. This reliance presents a considerable challenge to US global influence and its MAGA agenda. Since Trump's first term, strategies have been implemented to secure critical minerals and restructure global supply chains, showcasing a commitment to restoring US dominance in this arena. The resource-rich landscape of Ukraine presents an attractive target for US control, especially given the opportunities created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past three years.
Nevertheless, the US-Ukraine mineral deal carries potential for unpredictable outcomes. First, although negotiations might continue, Ukraine is largely positioned to accept the terms placed upon it. Such an imposed agreement could create friction in US-Ukraine relations and complicate any future peace negotiations with Russia. Additionally, Russia has proposed a collaboration with the US for the joint development of resources, including those in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. If the US were to engage in this cooperation, it would effectively acknowledge Russia's territorial claims, placing Ukraine under significant pressure in future multilateral discussions. The EU has also shown interest in forming a mineral agreement with Ukraine in response to the US proposal. If both the US and EU secure such deals, other pro-Ukraine nations might also push for similar arrangements, creating the prospect that Ukraine’s underground resources could be divided among global powers.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
The recent meeting between the leaders of the US and Ukraine concluded unexpectedly. While no mineral deal was finalized, both parties left open the possibility for further discussions. This potential mineral deal is central to US efforts in mediating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, signaling a significant realignment in US foreign policy that prioritizes the control of resources and economic interests. With reactions from the European Union and Russia, it is conceivable that this mineral agreement could develop into bilateral or even multilateral arrangements involving additional nations.
The US-Ukraine mineral deal reflects the "America First" agenda and the strategic objectives tied to "Make America Great Again." The recent approach to Ukraine under the Trump administration indicates a belief that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily a bilateral issue, advocating for a US withdrawal while seeking to recuperate previous investments in military and economic aid to Ukraine during the Biden administration. For Ukraine, which continues to grapple with the effects of war, its underground resources represent a vital opportunity to address its debts. The extraction and processing of these resources, categorized as bulk commodities with inelastic demand, could yield a consistent revenue stream. By focusing on Ukraine's underground assets, the US aims not only for financial returns but also seeks to exert de facto control over these critical resources.
Rich in "critical minerals," Ukraine possesses essential raw materials vital for advanced manufacturing sectors, including semiconductors, electric vehicles, battery production, wind power, and photovoltaic equipment. Controlling the extraction and processing of these minerals significantly impacts a nation's standing in the global economy. The US relies entirely on imports for 12 of the 50 critical minerals identified by the US Geological Survey, and is over 50 percent dependent on imports for an additional 29. This reliance presents a considerable challenge to US global influence and its MAGA agenda. Since Trump's first term, strategies have been implemented to secure critical minerals and restructure global supply chains, showcasing a commitment to restoring US dominance in this arena. The resource-rich landscape of Ukraine presents an attractive target for US control, especially given the opportunities created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past three years.
Nevertheless, the US-Ukraine mineral deal carries potential for unpredictable outcomes. First, although negotiations might continue, Ukraine is largely positioned to accept the terms placed upon it. Such an imposed agreement could create friction in US-Ukraine relations and complicate any future peace negotiations with Russia. Additionally, Russia has proposed a collaboration with the US for the joint development of resources, including those in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. If the US were to engage in this cooperation, it would effectively acknowledge Russia's territorial claims, placing Ukraine under significant pressure in future multilateral discussions. The EU has also shown interest in forming a mineral agreement with Ukraine in response to the US proposal. If both the US and EU secure such deals, other pro-Ukraine nations might also push for similar arrangements, creating the prospect that Ukraine’s underground resources could be divided among global powers.
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
