UN report warns immediate action needed to curb climate crisis
UN report warns that immediate action is needed to curb the climate crisis.
TroibNews 
According to a United Nations report released Thursday, the world is on track to experience a temperature increase of 1.8 degrees Celsius above current levels. However, countries could potentially reduce this projected warming by half a degree if they fully implement their commitments to combat climate change.
Despite this potential cut, the report emphasizes that it would not be sufficient to prevent the most severe impacts of warming, which include extreme heat waves, wildfires, storms, and droughts.
The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap Report suggests that under all scenarios except for the "most optimistic," which involves the most significant reductions in fossil fuel use, the likelihood of keeping warming within the internationally accepted limit "would be virtually zero." This limit, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, aims to restrict human-induced temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The report notes that since the mid-1800s, the planet has already warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius, a revision from previous estimates of 1.1 or 1.2 degrees Celsius, taking into account last year’s record heat.
Currently, the world is projected to reach a temperature increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. However, if nations fulfill their climate targets submitted to the United Nations, this increase could be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius, the report indicated.
In a scenario requiring drastic cuts to achieve net zero carbon emissions after the mid-century, there is a 23 percent chance of keeping warming at or below the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. Nonetheless, it is more likely that even this optimistic scenario would result in a warming of 1.9 degrees Celsius, the report stated.
"The main message is that action right now and right here before 2030 is critical if we want to lower the temperature," said report main editor Anne Olhoff, an economist and chief climate advisor to the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre. "It is now or never really if we want to keep 1.5 alive."
UNEP Director Inger Andersen warned that without rapid and unprecedented emission cuts, "the 1.5 degree C goal will soon be dead and well below 2 degrees C will take its place in the intensive care unit."
Olhoff also noted that Earth is on a trajectory to completely close the door on the 1.5 degrees Celsius target by 2029.
"Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change," said author Neil Grant of Climate Analytics. "And so I think we are at risk of a lost decade."
A significant issue highlighted in the report is the discrepancy between the climate action commitments made by nations in their Paris Agreement targets and their actual policies. The report reveals that the world's 20 wealthiest nations, responsible for 77 percent of global carbon emissions, are falling short of their stated goals, with only 11 of these countries meeting their individual targets.
While the report found that cuts sufficient to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius goal are technically and economically feasible, they are not being effectively proposed or implemented.
"This report shows that yet again governments are sleepwalking towards climate chaos," said climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, who did not contribute to the report.
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, expressed his distress, stating: "We are not making progress and are now following a 3.1 degree Celsius path, which is, with next to zero uncertainty, a path to disaster."
The updated calculations for both the 3.1 degrees Celsius and 2.6 degrees Celsius projections are each a tenth of a degree Celsius higher than those in last year's report, though experts noted this difference is within the margin of uncertainty.
According to MIT's John Sterman, "there's one year less time to cut emissions and avoid climate catastrophe." He emphasized the significance of the term "catastrophe," referencing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings that 3 degrees Celsius of warming would lead to severe and irreversible damage.
The report centers on the concept of the emissions gap, delineating the permissible budget for greenhouse gas emissions—primarily carbon dioxide and methane—to remain within various warming thresholds. It specifies how much annual emissions must be reduced by 2030 to stay under these limits.
To maintain warming at or below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world must cut emissions by 42 percent, while a 28 percent reduction is necessary to keep warming at or below 2 degrees Celsius, as stated in the report titled "No more hot air... please!"
In 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions totaled 57.1 billion tonnes, equating to a rate of 1,810 tonnes of heat-trapping gases per second.
"There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres declared in a video message accompanying the report. "We're playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We're out of time."
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News
Despite this potential cut, the report emphasizes that it would not be sufficient to prevent the most severe impacts of warming, which include extreme heat waves, wildfires, storms, and droughts.
The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap Report suggests that under all scenarios except for the "most optimistic," which involves the most significant reductions in fossil fuel use, the likelihood of keeping warming within the internationally accepted limit "would be virtually zero." This limit, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, aims to restrict human-induced temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The report notes that since the mid-1800s, the planet has already warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius, a revision from previous estimates of 1.1 or 1.2 degrees Celsius, taking into account last year’s record heat.
Currently, the world is projected to reach a temperature increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. However, if nations fulfill their climate targets submitted to the United Nations, this increase could be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius, the report indicated.
In a scenario requiring drastic cuts to achieve net zero carbon emissions after the mid-century, there is a 23 percent chance of keeping warming at or below the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. Nonetheless, it is more likely that even this optimistic scenario would result in a warming of 1.9 degrees Celsius, the report stated.
"The main message is that action right now and right here before 2030 is critical if we want to lower the temperature," said report main editor Anne Olhoff, an economist and chief climate advisor to the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre. "It is now or never really if we want to keep 1.5 alive."
UNEP Director Inger Andersen warned that without rapid and unprecedented emission cuts, "the 1.5 degree C goal will soon be dead and well below 2 degrees C will take its place in the intensive care unit."
Olhoff also noted that Earth is on a trajectory to completely close the door on the 1.5 degrees Celsius target by 2029.
"Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change," said author Neil Grant of Climate Analytics. "And so I think we are at risk of a lost decade."
A significant issue highlighted in the report is the discrepancy between the climate action commitments made by nations in their Paris Agreement targets and their actual policies. The report reveals that the world's 20 wealthiest nations, responsible for 77 percent of global carbon emissions, are falling short of their stated goals, with only 11 of these countries meeting their individual targets.
While the report found that cuts sufficient to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius goal are technically and economically feasible, they are not being effectively proposed or implemented.
"This report shows that yet again governments are sleepwalking towards climate chaos," said climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, who did not contribute to the report.
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, expressed his distress, stating: "We are not making progress and are now following a 3.1 degree Celsius path, which is, with next to zero uncertainty, a path to disaster."
The updated calculations for both the 3.1 degrees Celsius and 2.6 degrees Celsius projections are each a tenth of a degree Celsius higher than those in last year's report, though experts noted this difference is within the margin of uncertainty.
According to MIT's John Sterman, "there's one year less time to cut emissions and avoid climate catastrophe." He emphasized the significance of the term "catastrophe," referencing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings that 3 degrees Celsius of warming would lead to severe and irreversible damage.
The report centers on the concept of the emissions gap, delineating the permissible budget for greenhouse gas emissions—primarily carbon dioxide and methane—to remain within various warming thresholds. It specifies how much annual emissions must be reduced by 2030 to stay under these limits.
To maintain warming at or below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world must cut emissions by 42 percent, while a 28 percent reduction is necessary to keep warming at or below 2 degrees Celsius, as stated in the report titled "No more hot air... please!"
In 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions totaled 57.1 billion tonnes, equating to a rate of 1,810 tonnes of heat-trapping gases per second.
"There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres declared in a video message accompanying the report. "We're playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We're out of time."
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News
