Trump’s Trade War Entraps John Thune in the Crossfire
Tariffs expected to be imposed on Canada and Mexico have the potential to severely impact the economy of the Senate majority leader's home state.
TroibNews 
No congressional leader faces greater risk of being caught in the crossfire of Donald Trump’s impending trade wars than Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Trump announced Thursday that he is prepared to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday, compelling the South Dakota Republican to choose whether to leverage his leadership position to counter a tactic that has caused significant distress among him and other agricultural-state GOP lawmakers, or to align himself with an emerging faction of MAGA-tinged protectionists in Congress.
Thune is acutely aware of the stakes involved. Retaliatory tariffs during Trump’s 2018 trade war with China severely impacted South Dakota’s agriculture-dependent economy, which relies heavily on exports of billions of dollars worth of soybeans, corn, beef, and other agricultural products, in addition to manufactured goods.
Farmers in the region are still recovering from their losses, and a trade standoff with Mexico and Canada—now the two largest export markets for American farmers—could be catastrophic. According to the Agriculture Department, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico are projected to reach $29.9 billion this fiscal year and a record $29.2 billion to Canada, with China lagging behind.
Other lawmakers from agricultural states and the industry as a whole are quietly depending on Thune to push back against Trump’s incursion into another round of damaging trade wars. However, this is a formidable task.
Thune, maintaining his typically measured approach to conflict, acknowledged in a brief interview that tariffs could be an “effective tool” when applied in a “targeted and selective way.” He also alluded to the ongoing debate within the Republican Party regarding the blanket tariffs Trump has suggested.
“Obviously the president is somebody who sees great value in the use of tariffs as a tool and we’ll have, I’m sure, lots of conversations,” he stated. “People up here have different views about how and when to use them but I see value when they are used in a targeted way.”
The latest trade threats from the president are just one of the challenges Trump has presented to Thune during his initial weeks as the top GOP leader. The relationship between the two has notably improved over the past year, with Trump praising Thune both publicly and privately—a stark contrast to late 2020, when Trump claimed Thune’s “political career [was] over.”
Nevertheless, Trump is also pressing Thune to expedite the confirmation of Cabinet nominees, potentially utilizing recess appointments if necessary. Additionally, Trump undermined Thune’s efforts to separate the GOP’s extensive tax, border, and energy package by instead supporting a unified plan proposed by Johnson, while leaving the option open for two distinct measures.
Colleagues within the GOP indicate that Thune seems to be cooperating with the White House so far, without outlining any broad internal strategy on tariffs that would signal a proactive stance against Trump’s sweeping levies. He has been cautious not to state any definitive positions publicly, even as he communicates behind the scenes.
This approach appears to be part of Thune’s broader strategy on a variety of issues: avoiding public criticism of the president to prevent provoking him or overpromising what can succeed in the Senate. Instead, he seeks to engage in open and honest communication with the administration about what he and other Republicans can accept.
During the past weekend, following Trump’s threats against Colombia regarding steep tariffs due to blocked deportation flights, a wave of congressional Republicans quickly rallied to show their support.
Sen. Bernie Moreno and three other GOP lawmakers hastily worked on legislation reinforcing Trump’s actions. "Colombia and all nations should be on notice," Speaker Mike Johnson asserted in a post on X.
However, Thune remained silent publicly until a PMG reporter inquired about the issue a day later.
Trump is determined to invoke economic measures as he attempts to secure concessions from Canada and Mexico—citing issues such as drug trafficking and trade imbalances in his remarks on Thursday. Yet, even the potential for new tariffs can carry consequences for American farmers, a reality recognized by lawmakers from agriculture-dependent states.
“Most of us aren’t, just as a matter of personality, tariff guys,” remarked Sen. Kevin Cramer, who expressed skepticism about Congress being able to obstruct Trump.
“We have seen how successful he’s been with using them as a negotiating tool,” he noted, adding that Trump “wants to invoke the tariffs at least for a little while. He’s not in an incremental mood right now.”
Historically, business-friendly Republicans on Capitol Hill have been wary of employing tariffs in disputes with foreign countries unrelated to trade. Yet members of Thune’s leadership team—including Sens. John Barrasso and Shelley Moore Capito—supported Trump’s tariff threats against Colombia due to illegal immigration.
“I think the president has a strategy, and it's working,” Capito commented regarding the Colombia threat.
For Thune and other Republicans from agricultural states, targeting Canada and Mexico is a significantly more delicate matter. Even Johnson, while asserting that there would be “no daylight” between Congress and Trump on his tariff threats relating to immigration, predicted that Trump would avoid levying tariffs on “whole countries or whole industries.”
Thune has indicated his own discomfort with these measures, telling reporters in the Capitol that he is “not a big fan of, you know, across-the-board, universal, uniform tariffs, because in some cases, you know, the impact it has on the ag economy, which is critical to our state.”
Thune’s remarks echo sentiments he expressed in an interview with PMG last year, where he stated that he had “pushed back” against broad tariffs during Trump’s first term and declared that if future proposals included “just tariffs on everything,” then “we’re going to have some serious conversations about that.”
Yet some congressional Republicans also recognize the limits of their ability to oppose Trump, given the expansive authority the president holds over global trade. They contend that it is ultimately the negotiating countries’ responsibility—not Congress’—to intervene and resolve the situation.
Several GOP lawmakers are reportedly already working on legislation to assist Trump in formally implementing tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which could further pressure Thune—even if the bills serve primarily as MAGA-aligned messaging tools.
Meanwhile, Republicans from agricultural states have been quietly preparing for weeks for Trump to fulfill his trade threats against Canada and Mexico in the near future—and possibly introduce new demands.
“This is just the beginning,” one Hill Republican cautioned.
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News
Trump announced Thursday that he is prepared to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday, compelling the South Dakota Republican to choose whether to leverage his leadership position to counter a tactic that has caused significant distress among him and other agricultural-state GOP lawmakers, or to align himself with an emerging faction of MAGA-tinged protectionists in Congress.
Thune is acutely aware of the stakes involved. Retaliatory tariffs during Trump’s 2018 trade war with China severely impacted South Dakota’s agriculture-dependent economy, which relies heavily on exports of billions of dollars worth of soybeans, corn, beef, and other agricultural products, in addition to manufactured goods.
Farmers in the region are still recovering from their losses, and a trade standoff with Mexico and Canada—now the two largest export markets for American farmers—could be catastrophic. According to the Agriculture Department, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico are projected to reach $29.9 billion this fiscal year and a record $29.2 billion to Canada, with China lagging behind.
Other lawmakers from agricultural states and the industry as a whole are quietly depending on Thune to push back against Trump’s incursion into another round of damaging trade wars. However, this is a formidable task.
Thune, maintaining his typically measured approach to conflict, acknowledged in a brief interview that tariffs could be an “effective tool” when applied in a “targeted and selective way.” He also alluded to the ongoing debate within the Republican Party regarding the blanket tariffs Trump has suggested.
“Obviously the president is somebody who sees great value in the use of tariffs as a tool and we’ll have, I’m sure, lots of conversations,” he stated. “People up here have different views about how and when to use them but I see value when they are used in a targeted way.”
The latest trade threats from the president are just one of the challenges Trump has presented to Thune during his initial weeks as the top GOP leader. The relationship between the two has notably improved over the past year, with Trump praising Thune both publicly and privately—a stark contrast to late 2020, when Trump claimed Thune’s “political career [was] over.”
Nevertheless, Trump is also pressing Thune to expedite the confirmation of Cabinet nominees, potentially utilizing recess appointments if necessary. Additionally, Trump undermined Thune’s efforts to separate the GOP’s extensive tax, border, and energy package by instead supporting a unified plan proposed by Johnson, while leaving the option open for two distinct measures.
Colleagues within the GOP indicate that Thune seems to be cooperating with the White House so far, without outlining any broad internal strategy on tariffs that would signal a proactive stance against Trump’s sweeping levies. He has been cautious not to state any definitive positions publicly, even as he communicates behind the scenes.
This approach appears to be part of Thune’s broader strategy on a variety of issues: avoiding public criticism of the president to prevent provoking him or overpromising what can succeed in the Senate. Instead, he seeks to engage in open and honest communication with the administration about what he and other Republicans can accept.
During the past weekend, following Trump’s threats against Colombia regarding steep tariffs due to blocked deportation flights, a wave of congressional Republicans quickly rallied to show their support.
Sen. Bernie Moreno and three other GOP lawmakers hastily worked on legislation reinforcing Trump’s actions. "Colombia and all nations should be on notice," Speaker Mike Johnson asserted in a post on X.
However, Thune remained silent publicly until a PMG reporter inquired about the issue a day later.
Trump is determined to invoke economic measures as he attempts to secure concessions from Canada and Mexico—citing issues such as drug trafficking and trade imbalances in his remarks on Thursday. Yet, even the potential for new tariffs can carry consequences for American farmers, a reality recognized by lawmakers from agriculture-dependent states.
“Most of us aren’t, just as a matter of personality, tariff guys,” remarked Sen. Kevin Cramer, who expressed skepticism about Congress being able to obstruct Trump.
“We have seen how successful he’s been with using them as a negotiating tool,” he noted, adding that Trump “wants to invoke the tariffs at least for a little while. He’s not in an incremental mood right now.”
Historically, business-friendly Republicans on Capitol Hill have been wary of employing tariffs in disputes with foreign countries unrelated to trade. Yet members of Thune’s leadership team—including Sens. John Barrasso and Shelley Moore Capito—supported Trump’s tariff threats against Colombia due to illegal immigration.
“I think the president has a strategy, and it's working,” Capito commented regarding the Colombia threat.
For Thune and other Republicans from agricultural states, targeting Canada and Mexico is a significantly more delicate matter. Even Johnson, while asserting that there would be “no daylight” between Congress and Trump on his tariff threats relating to immigration, predicted that Trump would avoid levying tariffs on “whole countries or whole industries.”
Thune has indicated his own discomfort with these measures, telling reporters in the Capitol that he is “not a big fan of, you know, across-the-board, universal, uniform tariffs, because in some cases, you know, the impact it has on the ag economy, which is critical to our state.”
Thune’s remarks echo sentiments he expressed in an interview with PMG last year, where he stated that he had “pushed back” against broad tariffs during Trump’s first term and declared that if future proposals included “just tariffs on everything,” then “we’re going to have some serious conversations about that.”
Yet some congressional Republicans also recognize the limits of their ability to oppose Trump, given the expansive authority the president holds over global trade. They contend that it is ultimately the negotiating countries’ responsibility—not Congress’—to intervene and resolve the situation.
Several GOP lawmakers are reportedly already working on legislation to assist Trump in formally implementing tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which could further pressure Thune—even if the bills serve primarily as MAGA-aligned messaging tools.
Meanwhile, Republicans from agricultural states have been quietly preparing for weeks for Trump to fulfill his trade threats against Canada and Mexico in the near future—and possibly introduce new demands.
“This is just the beginning,” one Hill Republican cautioned.
Allen M Lee contributed to this report for TROIB News
