Trump is set to enter the GOP budget battle

Lawmakers indicate that the president will need to mediate certain policy discussions he has previously steered clear of.

Trump is set to enter the GOP budget battle
Initially, he sought “one powerful Bill.” Then, he expressed willingness to consider splitting it in two. Later on, he insisted on a single “BEAUTIFUL” bill — only to soon afterward commend senators for looking into a pair of bills. “You could do three,” he remarked the following day. “You could do 10.”

President Donald Trump has traditionally not shown much interest in how his extensive domestic policy agenda is implemented in Congress, preferring to let the House and Senate work out their differences independently.

However, Republican lawmakers are cautioning that this hands-off strategy may not be tenable much longer, as significant conflicts are emerging between the House and Senate over tax policies, spending cuts, and other matters.

Up to this point, Trump’s approach to the legislative process has yielded favorable outcomes: both chambers have passed fiscal blueprints for advancing border security, energy, defense, and tax legislation. This week, Trump successfully nudged the House version over the finish line with strategic calls to Republican dissenters.

Nonetheless, turning that “big, beautiful bill” into reality will demand more than just persuading a handful of disgruntled legislators — it will require making difficult presidential decisions on complex policy matters.

"He'll be very involved — I think he'll probably need to be,” stated Sen. Josh Hawley. “There's a lot of distance between where the House and the Senate are on this."

Compounding the situation is Trump’s recent tendency to create confusion rather than provide clarity on the direction they should take.

He has advocated for a permanent extension of his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — a costly proposition that could hinder efforts to reduce the budget deficit — while also dismissing severe cuts to Medicaid, the federal-state safety net program that House Republicans are relying on for budget savings.

Amidst these challenges, he has called for a balanced budget — a fiscal goal that neither the House nor the Senate’s proposals appear to be close to achieving. “Maybe by next year or the year after, but maybe even sooner than that,” Trump told reporters Wednesday.

Congressional Republicans are accustomed to dealing with the unpredictable president and his often conflicting policy demands. However, bridging these demands into a cohesive budget framework — and ultimately, into actual legislation that can be passed by the GOP’s slim majorities in both chambers — will necessitate tough choices, they assert, that only the White House can resolve.

“He's the most instrumental person,” said Rep. Victoria Spartz, who had a lengthy phone conversation with Trump on Tuesday before she decided to support the House budget. “This branch [of government] has been very broken, so we need someone like Trump to help us to do our job.”

A source within Trump’s circle, speaking anonymously to discuss strategy, indicated that the president had intentionally remained on the sidelines in the early stages, using the House-Senate rivalry to advance his agenda. For instance, having the Senate plan at the ready helped House leaders secure support from their members earlier this week.

However, the hands-off approach shifted on Tuesday when a group of staunch fiscal conservatives resisted Speaker Mike Johnson’s budget plan, claiming it did not make sufficient federal spending cuts.

“He wants to see something,” the source remarked regarding Trump. “And if [the House budget] failed, it would have looked like [the] GOP doesn’t have their act together.”

Aside from Spartz, Trump reached out to several dissenting members, according to Republican sources familiar with the outreach. Ultimately, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky was the only GOP member to vote against the budget.

Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett, one of the holdouts, noted that Trump’s call had a “considerable" impact on his choice to support the budget: "The president assured me that he would work towards cuts, and he's never lied to me. … I trust the president."

To date, GOP leaders have used their connection to the president sparingly, recognizing they cannot seek Trump’s assistance every time they face a whip problem, according to two Republicans who spoke anonymously about the dynamics between Trump and Congress.

A broader contingent of dissenters, including some moderate members seeking assurances on Medicaid cuts, did not receive calls from Trump, the two Republicans said. They were instead persuaded by congressional leaders who highlighted that no safety-net programs are explicitly mentioned in the budget plan.

Nevertheless, Republicans are now confronting deeper splits, some of which were addressed during a White House meeting on Wednesday that included Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and senior administration economic officials.

Among the topics discussed was the difficulty of making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent — a move that would significantly exacerbate the deficit. Some lawmakers are advocating for an accounting shift on the bill to circumvent this cost, enabling tax writers to pursue other Trump priorities, such as exempting tips from income tax, potentially inciting backlash from fiscal hawks wanting to curtail national debt growth.

Accomplishing this, in effect, could necessitate Trump’s public involvement on policy issues he has previously overlooked.

The president’s influence will be "as influential if not more as things get tougher,” remarked Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Florida Republican who met with Johnson this week as the budget debate intensified. "The speaker is going to have to tee it up, going to tell him where the ball lies, how it's lying, and then the president is going to have to execute the shot.”

A more sensitive issue will surround possible cuts to safety-net programs many of Trump’s voters depend on, especially Medicaid, which could face hundreds of billions of dollars in reductions under the House proposal.

Trump has repeatedly stated that he does not intend to cut Medicaid or other entitlement programs.

“I've said it so many times that you shouldn't be asking me that question,” he told reporters Wednesday when pressed on the matter. “Read my lips … we're not going to touch it. Now, we are going to look for fraud."

Congressional leaders are hoping to broaden the “fraud” loophole as much as possible. Johnson and other top House Republicans argued this week to skeptics that reducing waste, fraud, and abuse could yield the savings necessary to make the numbers work.

Yet, many lawmakers, including Hawley, are skeptical that the party can achieve these offsets without affecting their constituents. They believe Trump will ultimately have to choose which Medicaid rollbacks he is amenable to.

Some House members have already reached out to White House officials to advocate for provisions they can present as addressing waste, fraud, and abuse — and not as cuts to benefits. While Trump has suggested that excluding “illegal migrants” could lead to significant savings, senior Republicans are uncertain.

Inside the White House, there is growing confidence in Trump’s ability to steer the legislative branch as his agenda progresses. One administration official, granted anonymity to speak openly about interbranch relations, stated that Trump is “always active in negotiations on Capitol Hill” and frequently communicates with congressional leaders regarding how he can be most beneficial.

“He put out a [Truth Social post] stating his desire for one big, beautiful bill, and he got it done,” the official noted.

Rachael Bade and Jake Traylor contributed to this report.

Mark B Thomas for TROIB News