This is Where the Fate of Pennsylvania Is Determined
Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit to Delco on Wednesday night highlights how crucial it is for her to secure strong support in the Philadelphia suburbs if she hopes to succeed in her presidential bid.
TroibNews 
Even if you’re not planning to watch Wednesday's CNN town hall featuring Kamala Harris, it's important to note the location: Delaware County, Pennsylvania.
This area, along with the three surrounding collar counties near Philadelphia, is crucial for the outcome of the presidential election. A strong performance in these suburban regions is vital for Harris to secure a win in this significant battleground state.
Pennsylvania boasts a variety of distinctive and politically relevant areas, in addition to its two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Delaware, Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery counties, in particular, wield considerable influence and have transformed state politics over the past thirty years.
When viewed through the lens of Pennsylvania’s east-west cultural dynamics, these four counties represent WaWa and Eagles territory, embodying a quintessentially East Coast temperament with a focus on the Acela Corridor rather than the western part of the state. Among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, they rank among the most affluent and educated. With a combined population of over 2.6 million, these four suburban counties surpass both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in size, as well as the population of 15 states.
During the 2020 election, these counties played a pivotal role in Joe Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania. While Biden did not match Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance in Philadelphia, which could have jeopardized his campaign, he compensated with overwhelming support in the suburbs. He outperformed Clinton's numbers in all four counties, garnering approximately 105,000 more votes than she did. With a statewide winning margin of just 82,000 votes, this suburban support was critical in offsetting his losses in other areas, particularly in western Pennsylvania and the so-called Republican T.
In the early 1990s, the emergence of a Democratic stronghold in the suburbs of Philadelphia might have seemed unlikely. Historically, all four counties leaned Republican, serving as the backbone of GOP strength in Pennsylvania. Delaware County, in particular, was the base of a nationally recognized Republican machine led by political boss John McClure, who was once known as the Boy King. The county's population growth following World War II made it significant enough in the 1960 presidential race that Richard Nixon altered his campaign route to meet with McClure at his home.
The 1992 election represented a turning point. Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties backed Bill Clinton and have continued in that direction ever since, with Chester County joining in 2008.
This shift has been disastrous for the GOP at the presidential level. Between 1952 and 1988, Republican nominees triumphed in Pennsylvania in six out of ten presidential elections. However, since the suburbs of Philadelphia turned blue, Democrats have secured victory in seven out of the last eight.
Currently, Bucks County stands as the only place where Trump might have a chance to win come Election Day. It remains politically competitive compared to the other three counties. Nonetheless, even if Trump succeeds in flipping Bucks, he still faces challenges from Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties, all of which rejected him by greater margins in 2020 than in 2016 and also voted against his endorsed candidates for governor and Senate in 2022.
Montgomery County, the third-most populous in Pennsylvania and home to popular Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, poses a particular challenge—it exemplifies the suburban resistance during the Trump era.
In 2008, Rick Davis, who managed John McCain’s campaign, articulated the political calculus of Pennsylvania by stating, “If you can figure out what I’m going to lose [Philadelphia] by, you’ll know if I can win Pennsylvania.”
This perspective still holds some relevance today—Harris does need strong support from the state’s largest city. However, given the progressive decline in Philadelphia’s Democratic margins since 2012, the more pertinent insight might be the magnitude of Trump's losses in the Philly suburbs.
This article was originally published in PMG Nightly.
James del Carmen for TROIB News
This area, along with the three surrounding collar counties near Philadelphia, is crucial for the outcome of the presidential election. A strong performance in these suburban regions is vital for Harris to secure a win in this significant battleground state.
Pennsylvania boasts a variety of distinctive and politically relevant areas, in addition to its two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Delaware, Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery counties, in particular, wield considerable influence and have transformed state politics over the past thirty years.
When viewed through the lens of Pennsylvania’s east-west cultural dynamics, these four counties represent WaWa and Eagles territory, embodying a quintessentially East Coast temperament with a focus on the Acela Corridor rather than the western part of the state. Among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, they rank among the most affluent and educated. With a combined population of over 2.6 million, these four suburban counties surpass both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in size, as well as the population of 15 states.
During the 2020 election, these counties played a pivotal role in Joe Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania. While Biden did not match Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance in Philadelphia, which could have jeopardized his campaign, he compensated with overwhelming support in the suburbs. He outperformed Clinton's numbers in all four counties, garnering approximately 105,000 more votes than she did. With a statewide winning margin of just 82,000 votes, this suburban support was critical in offsetting his losses in other areas, particularly in western Pennsylvania and the so-called Republican T.
In the early 1990s, the emergence of a Democratic stronghold in the suburbs of Philadelphia might have seemed unlikely. Historically, all four counties leaned Republican, serving as the backbone of GOP strength in Pennsylvania. Delaware County, in particular, was the base of a nationally recognized Republican machine led by political boss John McClure, who was once known as the Boy King. The county's population growth following World War II made it significant enough in the 1960 presidential race that Richard Nixon altered his campaign route to meet with McClure at his home.
The 1992 election represented a turning point. Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties backed Bill Clinton and have continued in that direction ever since, with Chester County joining in 2008.
This shift has been disastrous for the GOP at the presidential level. Between 1952 and 1988, Republican nominees triumphed in Pennsylvania in six out of ten presidential elections. However, since the suburbs of Philadelphia turned blue, Democrats have secured victory in seven out of the last eight.
Currently, Bucks County stands as the only place where Trump might have a chance to win come Election Day. It remains politically competitive compared to the other three counties. Nonetheless, even if Trump succeeds in flipping Bucks, he still faces challenges from Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties, all of which rejected him by greater margins in 2020 than in 2016 and also voted against his endorsed candidates for governor and Senate in 2022.
Montgomery County, the third-most populous in Pennsylvania and home to popular Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, poses a particular challenge—it exemplifies the suburban resistance during the Trump era.
In 2008, Rick Davis, who managed John McCain’s campaign, articulated the political calculus of Pennsylvania by stating, “If you can figure out what I’m going to lose [Philadelphia] by, you’ll know if I can win Pennsylvania.”
This perspective still holds some relevance today—Harris does need strong support from the state’s largest city. However, given the progressive decline in Philadelphia’s Democratic margins since 2012, the more pertinent insight might be the magnitude of Trump's losses in the Philly suburbs.
This article was originally published in PMG Nightly.
James del Carmen for TROIB News
