The intense leadership contest risking another rift in the House GOP

House Republicans think the steadfast conservative is not yet finished seeking a leadership role. However, he continues to face strong resistance from some members within the conference.

The intense leadership contest risking another rift in the House GOP
House Republicans are noticing strong indications that Jim Jordan is aiming to ascend to a more influential role within the party.

The current chair of the Judiciary Committee and a figure admired by conservatives has been actively campaigning for House members, including some centrists who previously thwarted his brief candidacy for the speakership last fall. His efforts have raised eyebrows among House GOP leaders and beyond. In addition, he has contributed financially to numerous members' campaigns and has made personal check-ins with some of his previous opponents, which are perceived as a strategy to strengthen his relationships.

Although Jordan is downplaying leadership ambitions at the moment and keeping some allies uninformed, many GOP lawmakers anticipate that he will seek another advancement. They speculate that his most probable path involves challenging current Majority Leader Steve Scalise, especially if the party loses control of the House.

Should the GOP lose the House, there’s a prevailing belief among Republicans that Speaker Mike Johnson would be ousted from leadership, placing Scalise, or a successful challenger, as the highest-ranking House Republican. Although ascending to this role would be a significant challenge for Jordan, some of his allies think it's attainable.

“He could,” Rep. Ralph Norman said, regarding whether Jordan could triumph over Scalise in a competition for minority leader. “Jim’s been doing it for a good while, he’s got all the experience and, again, there’s no better spokesman.”

While Scalise holds his own conservative credentials, Jordan is a strong proponent of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, and his leadership could signal a shift toward more aggressive tactics that may alienate some members of the House GOP. The contest between the two would likely be contentious, reigniting conflicts from the previous fall that divided various factions of the House GOP against Jordan's staunch conservative supporters—ending in losses for both.

Nearly a year prior, Scalise secured the GOP nomination to succeed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy's removal. Yet, a coalition of resentful McCarthy allies and Jordan’s Freedom Caucus supporters made it evident they would resist Scalise on the House floor, causing him to withdraw from the speakership race the next day. When Jordan won the nomination, Scalise's supporters, along with centrists and appropriators, employed similar tactics against him.

Elections for minority or majority leader are simpler than those for speaker, as they only necessitate a simple majority of the Republican conference through a secret ballot, in contrast to the 218 votes required for the speaker role.

In a brief interview, Jordan evasively addressed inquiries about his aspirations, asserting he was not pursuing the majority leader position. He deflected questions about a potential run for minority leader, asserting that Republicans would not lose the House.

“I’m not running for majority leader. I’m running for chairman of the Judiciary Committee,” he stated.

Nonetheless, Jordan has made noticeable efforts to connect with some of the roughly two dozen GOP members who opposed him last year, including by campaigning for them, donating funds, and conducting personal outreach. However, the majority of those members reported they have not heard from him and have not changed their views about him, based on interviews with several.

Even certain allies of Jordan harbor doubts about his chances against Scalise, who has nurtured relationships within the conference and Fundraised for fellow members over several years. Additionally, concerns regarding Scalise's health, which he was grappling with during last year's speakership campaign, have largely diminished.

Signs suggest, however, that Jordan is making headway. Approximately a quarter of Republicans who initially opposed Jordan's speakership bid claim they bear no grudges and may consider supporting him in a future leadership endeavor. Some contend their opposition was not personal, but situational due to Scalise being blocked following McCarthy’s ousting. Three of those members are retiring, along with several McCarthy allies who previously obstructed Scalise.

One notable shift has come from Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, a vulnerable Republican whom Jordan aided with a tele-town hall following the October speakership election when Gonzales faced a primary challenge from the right. When asked if he would like to see Jordan in leadership, Gonzales noted that much could change before November, adding that Jordan has been “a leader within the conference for a very long time.”

“If you are gonna hold onto grudges, you ain't gonna be here very long,” he remarked.

Simultaneously, Rep. Nick LaLota, who also resisted Jordan’s leadership bid last year, signaled openness to supporting him in the future, asserting that his earlier decision was not personal. Rather, he emphasized it was based on negotiations concerning three primary issues: the state and local tax deduction, flood insurance, and funding for a health care program for individuals affected by the Sept. 11 attacks.

Despite these advances, Jordan allies caution that he may have caused lasting damage during the leadership race that extends beyond those who publicly opposed him. Over 120 Republicans privately resisted Jordan's nomination during a closed-door meeting last year. While he garnered more support in subsequent House floor votes, some detractors attributed death threats their families received to their votes against him. The Ohioan condemned those tactics, but the repercussions linger.

An ally of Jordan, speaking anonymously, expressed that they had “no problem” with Jordan challenging Scalise for minority leader. This Republican suggested that while the initial advantages may rest with Scalise, members are “getting tired of the coronation of leadership.”

Even among Republicans who were against Jordan last year, there is acknowledgment that a minority position might favor him more. Without control of the House, the minority party largely focuses on opposing the majority's priorities.

However, Jordan has also experienced a decline in some advantages. While he still enjoys strong conservative backing, it is not the unwavering support he once had.

At various times, he has dismissed pressure from the right to adopt more combative investigative strategies. Some conservatives have also perceived a loss of influence due to his close alliances with McCarthy, who relied on Jordan as a significant ally despite an initially rocky relationship. Indeed, some Jordan allies contend he felt deflated following McCarthy’s ousting, which was supported by many within the House Freedom Caucus, a group he co-founded.

Conversely, he has made progress among centrists and vulnerable members. His campaigning efforts extend beyond those who opposed his speaker bid, enhancing his standing across the conference. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis publicly thanked him for assisting her fundraising earlier this year, he was seen with Budget Chair Jodey Arrington in Texas, and he made a recent visit to deep-red Arkansas, which included an event with Rep. Bruce Westerman.

When asked about speculation regarding his future, Jordan attributed his campaigning to simply working to help the GOP retain the House—mirroring sentiments expressed by other Republicans who claimed he is simply being a good teammate, regardless of intent.

“Jim is working very hard for our team. … I haven’t heard he’s interested in any particular leadership position. I don’t know what his motivation is, but I appreciate what he’s doing,” said one senior House Republican, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

Olivia Brown contributed to this report for TROIB News