The Area Where Conflict in the Middle East Could Determine Victory or Defeat
The Biden administration is implementing measures in the West Bank; however, it might be too late to make a significant impact.
TroibNews 
The U.S. recently took a significant yet easily overlooked action in the Middle East amid the chaos of Iranian missile launches and Israeli military operations: it implemented economic sanctions on Hilltop Youth, a faction of Israeli settlers known for their assaults on Palestinians in the West Bank.
This marks the latest move in a series of punitive measures President Joe Biden has imposed on extremist Israeli settlers over the past year, coinciding with Israel's confrontations with Hamas militants in Gaza and the escalating violence and occupation in the West Bank. Biden’s senior aides express considerable pride in this initiative.
They emphasize that such sanctions, which may include freezing the financial assets of those accused, are unprecedented, showcasing America's even-handedness in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They also highlight the commitment of the U.S. to the establishment of a Palestinian state, despite the current Israeli opposition to this goal.
However, after months of hearing this self-satisfaction, one lingering question remains for Biden and his administration: Why wasn’t action taken years earlier? The concerning trends identified in the West Bank were evident long before now. Had there been earlier intervention, the Middle East landscape might look quite different today.
I have posed this question to several high-ranking officials within the Biden administration, but none provided a satisfactory response. Continual inquiry is crucial, as the future of the Middle East may hinge on the actions of Israel, the U.S., and the Palestinians in the West Bank.
“The West Bank is the last remaining vestige of a Palestinian state that hasn’t been destroyed or otherwise taken off the table,” stated Khaled Elgindy, a scholar at the Middle East Institute who has been critical of the Biden administration. “If it falls, if the settlements overtake everything, then there’s not even the pretense of a Palestinian state.”
Should Palestinians lose hope for statehood, it could exacerbate the longstanding conflict at the root of the strife in Gaza—one that has historically pitted Palestinians and Israelis against each other over the same territory.
The implications extend further; a deteriorating hope for peace in the Middle East could hinder the possibility of lasting tranquility, as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict perpetuates a multitude of regional grievances. This includes frustrations with a U.S. perceived as favoring Israel, even when American officials—Biden included—assert that the only viable resolution to the long-standing conflict is the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Currently, many U.S. officials observe the slow deterioration of the West Bank, along with the diminishing prospects of an independent Palestine.
“The indicators are all running really negative,” acknowledged a senior Biden administration official candidly. Anonymity was granted to allow for open discussion on this sensitive issue.
In the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which initiated the latest conflict, Israeli security forces have imposed severe restrictions in the West Bank, increasing checkpoints and barriers that hinder Palestinians' movement and access to essential services. Work permits for tens of thousands of West Bank Palestinians have been revoked, and Israeli forces have conducted extensive raids throughout the area to combat what they characterize as heightened Palestinian militancy, often causing significant harm to infrastructure. More than 700 Palestinians have died as a result of the violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Extremist Israeli settlers seeking to annex the West Bank have significantly intensified their attacks on Palestinians, particularly following the October 7 incident. These attacks have led to the depopulation of Palestinian villages, numerous fatalities, and the loss of livestock and livelihoods for many. Reports indicate that the Israeli security forces frequently stand by during these assaults or even participate. Meanwhile, the Israeli government has announced plans for increased land seizures and expanded settlements in the area.
Far-right members of Israel’s government have attempted to impose financial penalties on the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank, at times withholding substantial funds owed to the PA. They have also threatened to prevent Israeli banks from conducting business with Palestinian banks, a move that could devastate the West Bank's economy. These officials are openly pursuing a vision of integrating the West Bank into a “Greater Israel,” potentially extending to Jordan.
For Israelis traumatized by the Hamas attacks, the West Bank represents a landscape filled with potential dangers. They recall their past withdrawal from Gaza, which subsequently became a stronghold for Hamas militants.
An Israeli official familiar with the situation in the West Bank noted the rising smuggling of Iranian weapons into the territory.
“We were able to block a few serious car bombs, where we found explosives. We’d never seen those kinds of explosives in Judea and Samaria before,” the official remarked, using the historical terms many Israelis favor for the West Bank.
Many Israeli officials attribute the dysfunction in the West Bank largely to the Palestinian Authority, which suffers from low public support and is known for its corruption.
Despite claims of ongoing reforms, defenders of the PA admit that it has yet to modify its controversial “pay for slay” program. They argue that instead of undermining the PA further, Israel should assist in strengthening it as a reliable partner.
For Palestinians, the West Bank and Gaza are viewed as inseparable components of a future state. However, as Gaza lies in ruins and some form of Israeli occupation appears inevitable there, the ongoing Israeli occupation in the West Bank results in increased suffering and resistance.
“We feel frustrated, but not defeated,” said Xavier Abu Eid, a former advisor to the Palestine Liberation Organization residing in the West Bank. “We are indigenous people in the land. The Israelis may succeed in boycotting the two-state solution, but they will not erase us.”
It is also noteworthy that many of the concerning trends in the West Bank predate the events of October 7, 2023. Incidents of violence by Israeli settlers have been on the rise for years. The growth of Israeli settlements has persisted for decades, and the military presence has remained constant and active. Far-right Israeli politicians had already been threatening the Palestinian Authority's financial resources before the current conflict erupted. Some experts argue that Israel's occupation of the West Bank has effectively become a form of annexation, with others going further to label it as apartheid.
During Donald Trump’s presidency, Israel felt emboldened in the West Bank. Among other pro-Israel actions, Trump cut U.S. funding and relations with the Palestinians. His Secretary of State declared that the U.S. would no longer consider Israeli settlements in the West Bank inconsistent with international law.
When Biden assumed the presidency, he and his team had the opportunity to restore some balance to the situation and differentiate themselves from the Trump administration.
However, their efforts have been minimal, failing even to revert to the previous stance on settlements during the early years of Biden's tenure.
Some officials within the Biden administration advocated for a more proactive approach, seeking to impose sanctions on violent Israeli settlers as early as 2021. These sanctions would freeze access to U.S.-held financial assets and restrict international business dealings.
Yet, those calls were overshadowed by concerns that taking action against settlers could destabilize Israel’s coalition government or galvanize Israeli support for extremist factions, as shared by two current U.S. officials and one former official familiar with the discussions.
“Paralysis by analysis” seemed to grip the administration along with a general sense of bureaucratic lethargy. Additionally, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not appear to be a priority for Biden’s administration.
“We just couldn’t get anyone to fucking care at a senior level,” one of the officials remarked.
In various discussions, I have asked U.S. officials whether they considered penalizing violent settlers simply on the grounds of doing what was morally right. In response, they have looked at me as if I am naïve and explained that policymaking does not operate that way.
However, had the administration targeted these settlers sooner, it might have conveyed to Israeli leaders that the U.S., under Biden, was serious about the establishment of a Palestinian state. It could have instilled some hope among Palestinians as well. While it might not have stopped Hamas’ attacks last October, a firmer U.S. stance against Israeli extremism could have weakened Israel’s far right to the point that they might not hold positions in the current government.
By the time Biden enacted sanctions, starting with visa bans on extremist settlers late last year and additional sanctions in February, Israeli sentiments had shifted strongly in reaction to the Hamas attack, leaving little room for concern about U.S. perspectives on the issue or the feasibility of a Palestinian state. Moreover, Palestinians were acutely aware that Biden, while campaigning for reelection, implemented sanctions when it was apparent that he could lose significant pro-Palestinian support in pivotal states.
At the Aspen Security Forum this summer, I inquired about the delay in imposing West Bank sanctions. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan interpreted my question as a “compliment” and as a vindication of his team’s actions.
“The fact is we did it, and no one else had done it before,” he asserted.
Senior Biden administration officials maintain that additional sanctions against settlers are forthcoming, and that even Israel’s far-right ministers might not escape their reach.
Nevertheless, many Palestinians and human rights activists criticize the administration for moving too slowly and taking incremental steps, suggesting that potential targets may already be shifting their financial assets in ways that could render them invulnerable to sanctions.
Thus, the administration risks not only being late to the party but also falling short of taking meaningful action.
Navid Kalantari contributed to this report for TROIB News
This marks the latest move in a series of punitive measures President Joe Biden has imposed on extremist Israeli settlers over the past year, coinciding with Israel's confrontations with Hamas militants in Gaza and the escalating violence and occupation in the West Bank. Biden’s senior aides express considerable pride in this initiative.
They emphasize that such sanctions, which may include freezing the financial assets of those accused, are unprecedented, showcasing America's even-handedness in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They also highlight the commitment of the U.S. to the establishment of a Palestinian state, despite the current Israeli opposition to this goal.
However, after months of hearing this self-satisfaction, one lingering question remains for Biden and his administration: Why wasn’t action taken years earlier? The concerning trends identified in the West Bank were evident long before now. Had there been earlier intervention, the Middle East landscape might look quite different today.
I have posed this question to several high-ranking officials within the Biden administration, but none provided a satisfactory response. Continual inquiry is crucial, as the future of the Middle East may hinge on the actions of Israel, the U.S., and the Palestinians in the West Bank.
“The West Bank is the last remaining vestige of a Palestinian state that hasn’t been destroyed or otherwise taken off the table,” stated Khaled Elgindy, a scholar at the Middle East Institute who has been critical of the Biden administration. “If it falls, if the settlements overtake everything, then there’s not even the pretense of a Palestinian state.”
Should Palestinians lose hope for statehood, it could exacerbate the longstanding conflict at the root of the strife in Gaza—one that has historically pitted Palestinians and Israelis against each other over the same territory.
The implications extend further; a deteriorating hope for peace in the Middle East could hinder the possibility of lasting tranquility, as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict perpetuates a multitude of regional grievances. This includes frustrations with a U.S. perceived as favoring Israel, even when American officials—Biden included—assert that the only viable resolution to the long-standing conflict is the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Currently, many U.S. officials observe the slow deterioration of the West Bank, along with the diminishing prospects of an independent Palestine.
“The indicators are all running really negative,” acknowledged a senior Biden administration official candidly. Anonymity was granted to allow for open discussion on this sensitive issue.
In the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which initiated the latest conflict, Israeli security forces have imposed severe restrictions in the West Bank, increasing checkpoints and barriers that hinder Palestinians' movement and access to essential services. Work permits for tens of thousands of West Bank Palestinians have been revoked, and Israeli forces have conducted extensive raids throughout the area to combat what they characterize as heightened Palestinian militancy, often causing significant harm to infrastructure. More than 700 Palestinians have died as a result of the violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Extremist Israeli settlers seeking to annex the West Bank have significantly intensified their attacks on Palestinians, particularly following the October 7 incident. These attacks have led to the depopulation of Palestinian villages, numerous fatalities, and the loss of livestock and livelihoods for many. Reports indicate that the Israeli security forces frequently stand by during these assaults or even participate. Meanwhile, the Israeli government has announced plans for increased land seizures and expanded settlements in the area.
Far-right members of Israel’s government have attempted to impose financial penalties on the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank, at times withholding substantial funds owed to the PA. They have also threatened to prevent Israeli banks from conducting business with Palestinian banks, a move that could devastate the West Bank's economy. These officials are openly pursuing a vision of integrating the West Bank into a “Greater Israel,” potentially extending to Jordan.
For Israelis traumatized by the Hamas attacks, the West Bank represents a landscape filled with potential dangers. They recall their past withdrawal from Gaza, which subsequently became a stronghold for Hamas militants.
An Israeli official familiar with the situation in the West Bank noted the rising smuggling of Iranian weapons into the territory.
“We were able to block a few serious car bombs, where we found explosives. We’d never seen those kinds of explosives in Judea and Samaria before,” the official remarked, using the historical terms many Israelis favor for the West Bank.
Many Israeli officials attribute the dysfunction in the West Bank largely to the Palestinian Authority, which suffers from low public support and is known for its corruption.
Despite claims of ongoing reforms, defenders of the PA admit that it has yet to modify its controversial “pay for slay” program. They argue that instead of undermining the PA further, Israel should assist in strengthening it as a reliable partner.
For Palestinians, the West Bank and Gaza are viewed as inseparable components of a future state. However, as Gaza lies in ruins and some form of Israeli occupation appears inevitable there, the ongoing Israeli occupation in the West Bank results in increased suffering and resistance.
“We feel frustrated, but not defeated,” said Xavier Abu Eid, a former advisor to the Palestine Liberation Organization residing in the West Bank. “We are indigenous people in the land. The Israelis may succeed in boycotting the two-state solution, but they will not erase us.”
It is also noteworthy that many of the concerning trends in the West Bank predate the events of October 7, 2023. Incidents of violence by Israeli settlers have been on the rise for years. The growth of Israeli settlements has persisted for decades, and the military presence has remained constant and active. Far-right Israeli politicians had already been threatening the Palestinian Authority's financial resources before the current conflict erupted. Some experts argue that Israel's occupation of the West Bank has effectively become a form of annexation, with others going further to label it as apartheid.
During Donald Trump’s presidency, Israel felt emboldened in the West Bank. Among other pro-Israel actions, Trump cut U.S. funding and relations with the Palestinians. His Secretary of State declared that the U.S. would no longer consider Israeli settlements in the West Bank inconsistent with international law.
When Biden assumed the presidency, he and his team had the opportunity to restore some balance to the situation and differentiate themselves from the Trump administration.
However, their efforts have been minimal, failing even to revert to the previous stance on settlements during the early years of Biden's tenure.
Some officials within the Biden administration advocated for a more proactive approach, seeking to impose sanctions on violent Israeli settlers as early as 2021. These sanctions would freeze access to U.S.-held financial assets and restrict international business dealings.
Yet, those calls were overshadowed by concerns that taking action against settlers could destabilize Israel’s coalition government or galvanize Israeli support for extremist factions, as shared by two current U.S. officials and one former official familiar with the discussions.
“Paralysis by analysis” seemed to grip the administration along with a general sense of bureaucratic lethargy. Additionally, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not appear to be a priority for Biden’s administration.
“We just couldn’t get anyone to fucking care at a senior level,” one of the officials remarked.
In various discussions, I have asked U.S. officials whether they considered penalizing violent settlers simply on the grounds of doing what was morally right. In response, they have looked at me as if I am naïve and explained that policymaking does not operate that way.
However, had the administration targeted these settlers sooner, it might have conveyed to Israeli leaders that the U.S., under Biden, was serious about the establishment of a Palestinian state. It could have instilled some hope among Palestinians as well. While it might not have stopped Hamas’ attacks last October, a firmer U.S. stance against Israeli extremism could have weakened Israel’s far right to the point that they might not hold positions in the current government.
By the time Biden enacted sanctions, starting with visa bans on extremist settlers late last year and additional sanctions in February, Israeli sentiments had shifted strongly in reaction to the Hamas attack, leaving little room for concern about U.S. perspectives on the issue or the feasibility of a Palestinian state. Moreover, Palestinians were acutely aware that Biden, while campaigning for reelection, implemented sanctions when it was apparent that he could lose significant pro-Palestinian support in pivotal states.
At the Aspen Security Forum this summer, I inquired about the delay in imposing West Bank sanctions. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan interpreted my question as a “compliment” and as a vindication of his team’s actions.
“The fact is we did it, and no one else had done it before,” he asserted.
Senior Biden administration officials maintain that additional sanctions against settlers are forthcoming, and that even Israel’s far-right ministers might not escape their reach.
Nevertheless, many Palestinians and human rights activists criticize the administration for moving too slowly and taking incremental steps, suggesting that potential targets may already be shifting their financial assets in ways that could render them invulnerable to sanctions.
Thus, the administration risks not only being late to the party but also falling short of taking meaningful action.
Navid Kalantari contributed to this report for TROIB News
