The affirmative action ruling won't be the Dobbs of 2024

CHICAGO — The Supreme Court decisions Thursday barring colleges from using race in their admissions processes became an immediate talking point in the 2024 campaign, with President Joe Biden declaring: “This is not a normal court.”

POLITICO asked political consultants whether ending affirmative action in higher ed will resonate with voters the same way the end of Roe v. Wade fueled the 2022 election. The general answer is not likely — but certain voting blocks will be spurred to show up.

“I hope inactive voters across the country finally start to realize, particularly Black voters, that elections have real consequences,” said Larry Luster, a political consultant who has worked on campaigns for Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin and Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul.

“It really pisses me off,” Luster said of the court’s two decisions on the same issue. “These actions are racist at their core.”

David Axelrod, a former senior strategist for President Barack Obama, expects the rulings “will motivate some, particularly the young.”

Pete Giangreco, a Democratic strategist who’s worked on nine presidential campaigns, says the Democratic base is likely to be most motivated.

“Just another log on the book-burning, abortion-banning, don’t-say-gay fire that’s consuming what’s left of the Republican Party,” he said. “Center-right moderates have nowhere to go but to Joe Biden.”

Aaron Del Mar, a Republican State Central Committeeman who is also an Asian-Pacific Islander, says ending affirmative action isn’t the same as ending Roe v. Wade.

“Many white suburban women who would have in the past voted Republican were enraged by the Dobbs ruling, as they felt it infringed on their rights to choose and control their own bodies,” he said. “In the affirmative action cases, it’s less personal — and even if they wouldn’t admit it, it gives their own children more opportunities.”

Becky Carroll, a Democratic political consultant, called the latest rulings “a wake up call to the idea that elections matter because presidents and senators control who gets appointed to federal benches. We have the ruling today because of that.”

And Brian Stryker, a Democratic pollster at Impact Research, says, “Dobbs in 2024 will be the Dobbs of 2022. People are still 11 of 10 mad with good reason, so it will be hard to supplant.”

A version of this initially appeared in the June 30 edition of Illinois Playbook. Sign up for the newsletter here.