Post-debate national polls report a tight battle between Biden and Trump

Three recently conducted significant national polls have provided a boost to President Joe Biden's contention to stay as the Democratic Party's nominee this fall, even in the wake of a disappointing debate performance previously. However, these polls also highlight the ongoing structural obstacles his campaign has been dealing with.

These polls, conducted by CBS News, Fox News, and NBC News were run prior to the attempted assassination reported on former President Donald Trump in Western Pennsylvania on Saturday. Nonetheless, the results of these polls could factor into discussions regarding Biden's suitability as the Democratic nominee this coming November.

Biden should find comfort in the data: his numbers have remained relatively steady since the last debate in late June, according to all three surveys. Democrats who feared a political implosion post the June 27 debate will find no evidence of such a trend in the current data.

The details, however, present a slightly different picture, revealing that Biden generally lags marginally behind Trump following the debated, just ahead of the upcoming Republican convention in Milwaukee. For instance, in the Fox News poll, Trump narrowly leads Biden 49 percent to 48 percent in a national poll. Although Biden led by 2 points in the previous poll in mid-June, the recent shift is within the poll's margin of error.

In the NBC News poll, Trump holds a lead over Biden with 45 percent to 43 percent. Similarly, in the CBS News poll surveying voters in seven critical Electoral College battleground states, Trump leads with 50 percent to Biden's 48 percent.

The Biden campaign and its supporters have been working diligently, using public and private polling data, to convince other Democrats of his eligibility to remain as the party's nominee, as only minor shifts have been noted in the past fortnight. However, their efforts have not been completely successful, with nearly two dozen congressional Democrats publicly urging him to renounce the nomination to allow for another candidate's emergence.

Moreover, the data signals several potential issues, even if voters aren't deserting Biden in large numbers post-debate. Biden doesn't just trail slightly at a national level and in essential battleground states, but an increasing amount of voters are expressing concerns about Biden's age: In the NBC News poll, 79 percent of voters voiced major or moderate concerns about Biden's capacity "to be president for a second term" at 81. In comparison, only 50 percent expressed the same worries about Trump at 78 years old.

While it's too soon to gauge if the recent attack at Trump’s event or the forthcoming Republican convention will result in notable shifts in the electorate, the steady state of the race post-debate suggests significant change is unlikely.