Porter campaign privately pitches Dems to look beyond Schiff’s money

In a recent private meeting with Democratic activists, Katie Porter’s campaign brass pitched them on her standing in the U.S. Senate race despite being walloped in early fundraising by fellow Rep. Adam Schiff.

The series of virtual discussions, which are bringing together donors and other party leaders and were described to POLITICO by participants, appear designed to build support for Porter’s campaign as well as demystify for Washington, D.C., insiders the political landscape in California where the race could come down to two Democrats. There’s also an element of giving her more hardcore supporters a new set of positive talking points to use in their evangelism.

But central to their utility is money. Among donors and some Democrats close to Porter, there’s creeping fear that Schiff’s sizable cash advantage and support from the likes of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could quickly harden the narrative with insiders that he’s the prohibitive frontrunner for 2024 — even if early public and private polls don’t actually bear that out.

These people said they worry that otherwise interested groups and elected leaders might sit out on the early jockeying for endorsements and remain noncommittal — and that donors might wait and see whether Porter’s bid materializes as a real threat before contributing to her campaign. The meetings, implicitly if not explicitly, are being held to avoid that from becoming a reality.

“There’s a danger that can sometimes become conventional wisdom that the person with the most money will win,” a person familiar with the Porter campaign’s fundraising strategy told POLITICO.

The gatherings also are being timed as a re-starting gun of sorts. Several uncommitted donors had said they were keeping their powder dry while Sen. Dianne Feinstein was away from Washington recovering from shingles, an extended leave that fueled speculation about a short-term appointment to her seat that could upend the 2024 race. Now, with Feinstein back in the Senate, Porter’s new cash rush opens a window into specific viability arguments her campaign is making behind closed doors to help close the money gap with Schiff.

Porter’s campaign declined to comment.

In one meeting, held in late April, Porter pollster David Binder walked attendees — including some from the organization End Citizens United — through a slide deck of his latest survey of the race, conducted through late April, one of the participants told POLITICO. The Binder poll found Porter and Schiff in a virtual tie, at 19 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Rep. Barbara Lee was back at 6 percent while an unnamed Republican was consolidating about a third of the vote. The topline numbers are not far off from those of a private survey released by Lee’s campaign on Wednesday that showed Porter with 24 percent, Schiff at 21 percent and Lee at 11 percent.

Schiff’s internal polling has not been publicized or leaked from internal discussions. His latest campaign finance report shows he has paid for surveying.

The Senate race so far has been marked as much by Feinstein’s prolonged absence from the chamber as much as by anything any of her would-be successors have done. Much of the candidates’ time has been occupied with fundraising.

Schiff, who had nearly $25 million on hand at the close of the last quarter, opens the race with a decisive financial advantage. Porter finished the year’s first filing period with $9.5 million while Lee stood at $1.2 million as of March 31.

California’s biggest statewide races in recent elections have been defined by candidates with early cash advantages who went on to further solidify their standing in the races. In the open governor’s race in 2018, Gavin Newsom held a huge financial edge over his Democratic rivals and won easily. In 2016, Kamala Harris cleared the field of serious challengers and was never matched in her financial contributions.

But the 2024 race in its early months could still emerge as something of an outlier. And Porter is clearly leaning on her strength in polls to try to close the gap. A February poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found Schiff and Porter nearly tied with Lee a distant third among the Democrats.

In the private briefings, Porter’s campaign is focusing on her upsides should the race become a repeat of 2016, when Harris faced off against then-Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez. In a top-two runoff, Binder told the assembled group, Porter has a 4-point lead over Schiff and also leads by double-digits with younger Democrats.

“Ironically, Katie Porter is more progressive, but Adam Schiff is more radioactive to a good portion of voters,” said Adam Green, a Porter supporter and co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, alluding to Schiff’s profile as a villain to former President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. Green contends that the early numbers show Porter has “the highest ceiling and starts with a very high floor.”

The prospect of an all-Democratic runoff made for a frequent line of questioning among the group, the attendee said. Other representatives for the Porter campaign present so far for the pitches have been Rich Davis of Dixon/Davis Media Group and Porter’s campaign manager Lacey Morrison.