More Republican money flowing to Arizona’s Senate race

Republicans aren’t giving up on Arizona’s Senate race just yet.

Despite a massive disparity in fundraising and spending between the two parties — and a continued polling advantage by Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly — money is moving back in to Arizona for Republican Blake Masters.

Sentinel Action Fund, a super PAC associated with conservative issue group Heritage Action for America, will spend at least $5 million to boost Masters this fall, said Jessica Anderson, president of Sentinel Action Fund and executive director of Heritage Action, in an exclusive interview. Of that, $3.5 million will be on television ads, coupled with $1.5 million to fund voter outreach.

Public polling continues to show Kelly with a lead over Masters, a former venture capital executive whose campaign is operating on a much tighter budget and has no ads of its own booked from now until Election Day, according to AdImpact. In Arizona, GOP television spending has been dwarfed by Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, as well as from Kelly’s own robust campaign account.

Sentinel Action Fund’s multi-million ad buy comes after the top Senate Republican spending group, Senate Leadership Fund, slashed its budget in Arizona, deciding instead to invest heavily in states more likely to result in a GOP win this fall.

“Arizona is the center of the fight for America’s soul,” Anderson said. “It is time for every corner of the conservative coalition to deploy every resource to win the Senate and show up to support our conservative candidates like Blake Masters.”

Anderson said the super PAC, which launched this spring, had always intended to spend money in Arizona’s Senate race, but they decided to jump in now after what Anderson called the recent “dustup” surrounding GOP funding for the race

SLF, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, cut its Arizona ad buy by $8 million late last month — nearly half of its initial reservation. That raised the question of whether billionaire Peter Thiel, Masters’ friend and longtime employer, would put additional money into the race. Thiel spent roughly $13.5 million to boost Masters in the primary.

Uncertainty also remains about the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s ability to spend additional money in the state, after canceling $3.5 million worth of ads there from its independent expenditure wing last month in order to book them at a lower price in collaboration with Masters’ campaign, which can receive a cheaper candidate rate.

So far, Democrats have purchased $39 million worth of ads between now and Election Day, compared to $14 million from Republicans, according to AdImpact. Anderson said Sentinel Action’s ads would begin airing as soon as possible, though its door-knocking campaign is set to begin today in Arizona. Field staff will focus discussions on inflation and crime, she said.

“We have felt a real shift with conservative voters wanting to support Masters, but seeing that the traditional GOP groups on the spending were moving in a different direction to other places in the country,” Anderson said.

She said the “heart and soul” of Sentinel Action are its grassroots members, who wanted the group to step up and boost Masters. Anderson said the group still believes there’s an opportunity to flip a Senate seat in the state President Joe Biden only narrowly won, and where its governor and state legislature are approving conservative measures, such as a school voucher program signed into law this summer.

The Heritage-connected super PAC plans to reach 250,000 voters through door knocking, along with another 500,000 through phone calls and text messages. The $5 million investment is its largest in a state this fall. Heritage Action has run ads this summer against the incumbent Democratic senators in Nevada and New Hampshire.