McCarthy struggles to lock down votes for debt plan

Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his team are vowing to move ahead with their sprawling debt measure as soon as Wednesday, but the path to locking down votes turned murky after a day of internal deliberations.

The Californian Republican spent the day holding back-to-back meetings with leadership allies and key holdouts to shore up support before a tentative vote Wednesday. By Tuesday evening, though, the GOP's whip count remained short of the votes needed for passage, with a cohort of Midwestern Republicans demanding changes to a major tax rollback in the bill. A smaller group of conservatives is also raising concerns of their own over work requirements for certain assistance programs.

McCarthy, looking to shut down potential dissenters, has repeatedly told Republicans that he won’t make changes to the bill even as he faces a cross-current of competing demands from both his right flank and agriculture-state Republicans. Altogether, that is more than a dozen members who have yet to commit to the bill — with just four votes to spare on the floor.

“This week, we will pass” the debt bill, McCarthy declared to reporters after a full day of meetings.

“We’re done negotiating,” added Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), a member of GOP leadership, while projecting confidence that “the whole Republican conference is going to get on board.”

The GOP plan, which includes across-the-board spending cuts, stricter rules for social safety net programs and energy production incentives, has largely earned cheers across the conference despite zero expectations that it will become law. Republicans have nonetheless insisted that this week’s debt bill is their best chance to restart stagnant talks with President Joe Biden ahead of a deadline that could come as soon as June.

But with a small margin of error, and potential absences among the GOP ranks, they’ll need near-unanimity among his conference to avoid an embarrassing setback that would undercut Republican efforts to force Biden to come to the negotiating table.

Already, two Republicans went on record Tuesday night saying they’ll oppose the bill: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.). And Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said he is a “lean no.“

Burchett, for his part, praised McCarthy but said that he hadn’t heard from the California Republican. Instead, he heard from his team who scheduled a meeting with the Tennessee Republican — but then skipped it.

“I’m not going flip a vote because of my ego, but ... just don’t take me for granted dude,” Burchett said.

Underscoring the fluidity, Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) declined to say, after meeting with McCarthy, if he would support the GOP debt bill or how many of his members might defect.

“I don't know what might change. I don’t know right now what might change and so I’m waiting to see,” he said.

Perry is amongst a group of conservatives who want to boost work requirements up to 30 hours per week — up from 20 hours in the current plan. Members of the Freedom Caucus are expected to discuss the debt plan during a meeting on Tuesday night.

Other conservatives, including Reps. Eli Crane (Ariz.), Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Biggs, have also urged McCarthy to go further in his opening bid, according to people familiar with their thinking and public statements.

Still, the largest contingent of Republicans rebelling against their leaders' plan is pushing to roll back certain tax incentives — specifically for biodiesel — that threatens to hurt their home states’ bottom line. A group of those members, mostly from the Midwest, have demanded changes to the bill, with many telling leadership they remain undecided.

McCarthy met with two of those fence-sitters, Iowa Reps. Ashley Hinson and Randy Feenstra, early Tuesday afternoon and plans to meet with others later in the day. Both Feenstra and Hinson declined to say after their meetings if they would back the bill.

Additionally, two of the holdouts, Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.), submitted amendments to strike the parts of the bill that would repeal tax credits for biodiesel and other renewable energy sources. Some members debated internally with their teams into Tuesday evening as to whether they could support either amendment and then vote yes on the final bill — even if the amendment were to fail, which it’s likely to do, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Several members appeared to be open to the option.

The most dug-in members on the ethanol issue include the entire Iowa House delegation — Feenstra, Hinson and Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn — along with Reps. Brad Finstad and Fischbach of Minnesota, Van Orden and Mark Alford of Missouri, according to three Republicans involved in the talks. Some members from Illinois, Nebraska and Indiana have also raised concerns, but they’re not considered major threats by GOP leaders at this point.

On the centrist side, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Tuesday he's a yes on the bill, but added: “There are some areas where we’re going to have to hold our nose. But we also know what we got to get something across the net.”

When asked about a potential Wednesday vote, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), a leadership ally, said: “Hard to tell when the stew gets done cooking,” but predicted the conference is in a “good spot” to vote this week. The House is scheduled to recess next week.

GOP leaders have continually projected confidence in their ability to keep their conference together, avoiding a repeat of January's floor drama as McCarthy toiled through 15 ballots to win the top gavel.

“We’re gonna be good, we're gonna pass it tomorrow,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told reporters Tuesday afternoon.

Leadership is taking the position that it’s this bill or nothing. One senior House Republican, familiar with the discussions, said Tuesday: “We got to present this as a binary choice, either you’re voting with Kevin or you're voting against Kevin.”

On the other side of the Capitol, Senate Budget Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said he wouldn’t be surprised if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is forced to break the debt-limit stalemate between McCarthy and Biden. Whitehouse predicted that the minority leader might get involved once pressure intensifies from Republican donors over relieving the economic pain of a potential default.

“At the end of the day, something will occur in the Senate. I just don’t think the conditions for that have yet been set,” he said. “Mitch McConnell has brokered deadlocks before, and I think that remains a possibility.”

Caitlin Emma contributed to this report.